Adani Green Energy Share Price Surges 10% Amid US-India Trade Deal Optimism

Adani Green Energy Limited (AGEL) shares experienced a significant rally during the trading session on February 3, 2026. The stock surged by over 10%, reflecting a broader recovery across the Adani Group conglomerate. This upward movement comes on the heels of a major trade deal announcement between Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and US President Donald Trump, which has significantly bolstered investor sentiment across Indian equity markets.

Intraday Market Performance and Trading Activity

The stock opened the day at Rs 924.00, significantly higher than its previous close of Rs 843.95. Throughout the session, the share price touched an intraday high of Rs 951.55 before stabilizing near the Rs 933 level. Trading volumes were exceptionally high, with over 10.2 million shares changing hands on the National Stock Exchange (NSE) alone. The total market capitalization of the company stood at approximately Rs 1,53,113 crore by mid-afternoon.

Market depth data from the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) indicated a strong buying bias. Total buy quantity stood at 62,443 units against a sell quantity of 82,349 units at the time of reporting, with the bid-ask spread remaining tight. The Volume Weighted Average Price (VWAP) for the day was recorded at Rs 929.23, suggesting consistent buying interest at higher price levels.

Impact of the India-US Trade Agreement

The primary catalyst for the rally was the announcement of a strategic trade deal between India and the United States. This development has provided a much-needed boost to large-cap Indian stocks, particularly those with global infrastructure and energy interests. Adani Green Energy, being a flagship renewable energy player, is perceived as a potential beneficiary of improved bilateral trade relations and potential green energy collaborations.

This geopolitical tailwind helped the stock decouple from recent negative news cycles. Investors reacted positively to the prospect of stabilized international relations, which often translates to lower risk premiums for large infrastructure conglomerates. The broader market also responded in kind, with the Sensex and Nifty gaining ground following the news.

Quarterly Financial Performance Review

Despite the share price rally, the company's recent financial results for the December 2025 quarter presented a mixed bag. Adani Green reported a consolidated net loss of Rs 41 crore for Q3 FY26, a sharp contrast to the Rs 492 crore profit recorded in the same period the previous year. However, total income showed resilience, climbing 8% year-on-year to reach Rs 2,837 crore.

The power supply segment remained a bright spot in the earnings report. Revenue from this division grew by 21%, while EBITDA saw a 23% increase. This growth was primarily fueled by significant greenfield capacity additions and the successful commissioning of new projects. The company's ability to scale its operational assets despite bottom-line volatility appears to have sustained long-term investor confidence.

Key Financial Metrics Summary

Institutional Interest and Bulk Deal Activity

Institutional activity has remained high in Adani Green Energy. Recent filings revealed significant bulk deals involving major players. Totalenergies Renewables Indian Ocean Ltd traded approximately 2.86 crore shares at a price of Rs 970, representing a 1.70% stake. Similarly, Quant Mutual Fund engaged in a trade involving 1.23 crore shares at the same price point.

These transactions indicate that despite recent price volatility, large institutional investors continue to find value in the company's long-term renewable energy roadmap. The presence of such high-profile investors often acts as a cushion for retail sentiment during periods of regulatory uncertainty or market turbulence.

Regulatory Clarifications and Legal Standing

The Adani Group recently issued clarifications regarding ongoing reports of US SEC legal proceedings. In stock exchange filings, the group reiterated that its listed companies are not parties to the SEC legal proceedings mentioned in various media reports. This clarification was aimed at addressing concerns regarding summons sought by the SEC for certain individuals within the group.

The company maintained that there are no allegations against the corporate entity itself. This distinction has been crucial for investors who were previously cautious due to potential legal overhangs. The group's proactive communication strategy appears to be working in stabilizing the stock's performance.

Strategic Expansion and 2030 Targets

Adani Green Energy remains committed to its ambitious goal of achieving 50 GW of renewable energy capacity by 2030. A central pillar of this strategy is the Khavda renewable energy park in Gujarat, which is planned to be the world's largest. Currently, the company's operational portfolio stands at approximately 16.7 GW, marking a 49% year-on-year increase.

The management has indicated a capital expenditure plan of Rs 30,000 to Rs 35,000 crore annually until FY28. This aggressive expansion is intended to solidify its position as India's leading renewable energy provider. Analysts note that the company's ability to secure AAA credit ratings for subsidiaries like Adani Electricity Mumbai further supports its capacity to raise low-cost capital for these projects.

Technical Analysis and Seasonality Trends

From a technical perspective, the stock recently triggered a bullish signal with a 5-day moving average crossover. Historically, such signals have preceded an average price gain of 4.11% within a week. However, seasonality analysis suggests caution, as the stock has given negative returns in February in five out of the last eight years, with an average decline of 8.96% during this month.

The current pivot levels suggest immediate resistance near the 52-week high of Rs 1,177.55. On the downside, the 52-week low of Rs 758.00 remains a critical support level. The stock is currently trading approximately 20.78% below its yearly peak, providing what some analysts describe as a potential buy-on-dips opportunity for long-term investors.

Analyst Recommendations and Future Outlook

Brokerage sentiment remains largely positive. Out of seven analysts tracking the stock, six maintain a 'Buy' or 'Outperform' rating. Target prices vary, with JM Financial setting a target of Rs 1,289 and Emkay Global projecting an upside to Rs 1,500. These targets are based on the company's strong execution track record and the predictable cash flows from its 25-year Power Purchase Agreements (PPAs).

While the Q3 loss was a temporary setback, the focus remains on capacity growth and operational efficiency. The market will closely monitor the progress of the Khavda project and any further developments regarding international trade policies that could impact the renewable energy sector.

Conclusion

The rally in Adani Green Energy shares on February 3, 2026, underscores the stock's sensitivity to both geopolitical news and institutional activity. While the company faces short-term challenges in the form of quarterly losses and regulatory scrutiny, its massive operational scale and aggressive 2030 targets continue to attract investor interest. As the India-US trade relations evolve, AGEL is well-positioned to remain a focal point of the Indian renewable energy transition.