Adani Group outlook 2026: Bernstein flags easing risks

What changed in Bernstein’s latest view

Global brokerage Bernstein said the worst may be over for the Adani Group after recent US-related legal overhangs were resolved. The brokerage linked this shift to US prosecutors moving to drop charges and the SEC case being settled, which it said removed a key investor concern. Bernstein said the group has now moved beyond two major issues that dominated sentiment over the last four years. It flagged the January 2023 short-seller episode and the US SEC-Department of Justice developments that began in November 2024 as the two large overhangs. With the latest US developments, Bernstein believes both concerns are now largely behind the group. The report was titled “India Infra: Adani group - The ‘Hard-Bank’...”.

The two shocks that drove sharp market corrections

Bernstein noted that the Adani Group faced two major shocks in the past four years. The first was the now-disbanded US-based short-seller Hindenburg Research report in January 2023. The second was the US SEC-DoJ related developments beginning November 2024. It said both events triggered sharp corrections in Adani group stocks and bonds. Bernstein’s latest assessment is that the resolution of the US proceedings has eased uncertainty that had weighed on funding access and sentiment. It also said the group’s ability to execute large projects and its dominance in infrastructure businesses remain core strengths despite multiple crises.

Why the brokerage sees structural advantages intact

Bernstein highlighted three structural advantages for the group. First was access to large contiguous land parcels at the right location. Second was the ability to take market share from government-run businesses. Third was execution efficiency in large-scale projects. As an example, it pointed to Adani Green Energy’s roughly 250,000-acre renewable land bank. It also cited Adani Ports and SEZ’s dominance in container traffic as an example of competitive positioning in infrastructure.

Leverage picture: debt up, but earnings growth cited

On leverage, Bernstein said net group debt has risen by around ₹1 trillion since September 2024. It attributed the increase to aggressive capital expenditure in businesses such as Adani Green and Adani Enterprises Ltd. Bernstein also said the increase came alongside strong earnings growth, with group EBITDA rising at a compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of 22% between FY23 and FY26. The brokerage added that Adani Green and Adani Power doubled EBITDA over this period.

The report tracked the group’s net debt-to-EBITDA ratio through the cycle. It said the ratio fell sharply from 4.4x during the Hindenburg episode to 2.7x by September 2024. It then rose again to 3.9x by March 2026. Bernstein said leverage is still below levels seen during the short-seller crisis, even after the rise into March 2026.

Promoter pledges and overseas funding: what Bernstein flagged

Bernstein addressed concerns around pledged promoter shares, which were a key focus during the Hindenburg episode. According to the brokerage, pledged shares across group companies have declined sharply since 2022 and are now “negligible”.

The report also discussed funding mix and overseas access. It observed that the group shifted away from international bond markets after the Hindenburg Research episode and the US legal developments, relying more on public sector undertaking (PSU) banks and non-banking financial companies (NBFCs). With legal uncertainty easing, Bernstein expects overseas fundraising avenues to reopen. It added that bond yields for Adani group entities have improved significantly and are now below India’s five-year government bond yields.

Stock ratings: Ports and Power preferred, Green still under pressure

Bernstein maintained an “Outperform” rating on Adani Ports and Adani Power Ltd, citing strong competitive positioning and growth visibility. It retained a “Market-Perform” rating on Ambuja Cements due to weaker operational performance relative to peers. For Adani Green Energy, Bernstein retained an “Underperform” rating, saying valuations remain expensive despite a correction from pre-Hindenburg levels.

Bernstein also said that despite a sharp rally, Adani Ports continues to trade broadly in line with peers, while Ambuja trades at a discount to large cement companies. It added that Adani Green still commands a significant premium to renewable energy segment peers. At the same time, the brokerage acknowledged Adani Green as one of the biggest direct beneficiaries of recent developments in the US renewable energy landscape.

Valuation snapshot: Adani Green’s premium highlighted

Bernstein’s caution on Adani Green was heavily valuation-led in the material provided. It cited a Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio of 136.5x versus an industry average of 33.3x. The text also referenced Adani Green trading at approximately 150x P/E, compared with peers such as JSW Energy (around 40x P/E) and Tata Power (around 55x P/E). It further noted that Adani Green’s net debt was ₹91,252 crore as of March 2026.

Debt maturity comfort and near-term repayment profile

According to Bernstein, debt repayment schedules, especially for Adani Green, appear manageable with no major near-term pressure. The report said the repayment schedule for the most leveraged company, Adani Green, is spread out. It also said there are no big dollar bond repayments. This comment was framed as a response to investor concerns about refinancing and near-term funding pressure.

Key facts table: leverage, pledges, ratings and targets

Why this matters for investors tracking Adani companies

Bernstein’s main signal was that legal clarity in the US has reduced a set of risks that affected both equity and credit perception. In the report’s framing, improved visibility can support better access to overseas funding and potentially shift the funding mix back toward dollar-denominated markets. At the same time, the brokerage’s stance shows a split within the group: it prefers businesses where it sees competitive strength and growth visibility, while staying cautious on Adani Green due to valuation premium.

The note also anchors the leverage discussion in ratios rather than absolute debt alone. It highlighted that debt increased, but EBITDA rose strongly, and leverage remains below the short-seller crisis peak even after rising to 3.9x by March 2026.

Conclusion

Bernstein said a key overhang has been removed for the Adani Group after US prosecutors moved to drop charges and the SEC case was settled. It expects funding access and bond market conditions to improve from here, while keeping Adani Green at Underperform because valuations remain elevated versus peers. Investors will likely track whether overseas fundraising avenues reopen as Bernstein expects, alongside how leverage evolves as capital expenditure continues across renewables and infrastructure.