Adani Ports: Motilal Oswal sees 39% upside in 2026

Why Adani Ports is back in focus

Adani Ports and Special Economic Zone (APSEZ) has drawn fresh attention after Motilal Oswal Financial Services reiterated a positive view on the stock and projected meaningful upside from prevailing market prices cited across its notes. The brokerage’s argument rests on two pillars: operational resilience at the ports business and a widening earnings base from logistics and marine services.

The call has come at a time when shipping and trade flows have been sensitive to geopolitical headlines, including developments linked to the Strait of Hormuz. Motilal Oswal’s stance is that APSEZ remains relatively insulated, largely because of a diversified cargo mix and limited exposure to categories that would see the sharpest disruption.

Motilal Oswal’s Buy call and targets

In a research note dated March 30, 2026, Motilal Oswal reiterated a ‘Buy’ on APSEZ and set a target price of ₹1,820, implying a 39% upside from the market price of ₹1,313 cited in the report. The valuation basis mentioned was 15x FY28E EV/EBITDA.

Separately, other Motilal Oswal notes referenced in the provided material show target revisions to ₹1,800 (based on 16x FY28E EV/EBITDA, with a cited CMP of around ₹1,473) and to ₹1,770 (based on 15x FY28E EV/EBITDA, implying a 16% upside from a cited CMP of ₹1,531). Taken together, the reports indicate that the brokerage remains constructive while updating assumptions and reference prices.

NQXT acquisition and the volumes story

Motilal Oswal highlighted strategic acquisitions such as NQXT as supportive of diversified port volumes and more stable throughput. In the material shared, the NQXT addition is described as likely to support robust overall volumes.

The brokerage commentary also points to industry-level volume trends as a useful backdrop. All-India major port volumes grew 3.5% year-on-year in February 2026 and about 8% year-to-date in FY26, driven by petroleum, containers, and coking coal (from a low base). Non-major port volumes were up about 3% year-on-year, with container traffic up 5% year-on-year, while petroleum, oil and lubricants volumes were largely flat year-on-year.

Integrated logistics and “sticky” cargo strategy

A recurring theme in the Motilal Oswal thesis is APSEZ’s integrated operating model. The brokerage described the company’s approach as one aimed at capturing a larger share of customer spending and improving cargo loyalty by offering a broader suite of services.

The narrative extends beyond port handling to inland logistics and marine services, positioned as complementary verticals that can deepen customer engagement. The underlying point is scalability: the wider the service offering across the value chain, the greater the ability to retain volumes and build recurring relationships with customers.

APSEZ’s stated ambition, as referenced in the provided text, is to become India’s largest integrated transport utility by 2029, with logistics and marine emerging as key engines alongside the core ports business.

Financial performance that underpins sentiment

APSEZ’s quarterly numbers cited in the text were used to justify the positive brokerage stance. In Q3 of the current fiscal year, APSEZ reported a 21% year-on-year increase in net profit to ₹3,054 crore (from ₹2,520 crore a year earlier). Revenue from operations in the same quarter rose 22% year-on-year to ₹9,705 crore (from ₹7,964 crore).

The material also references a strong Q2, with revenue increasing 29.7% to ₹9,167 crore and net profit rising 27.2% to ₹3,109 crore. Q1 saw net profit increase 6.5% to ₹3,315 crore, with logistics and marine mentioned as drivers.

Balance sheet and valuation metrics cited

Analysts cited APSEZ’s balance sheet strength as a reason the company can pursue both organic expansion and acquisitions. The provided text mentions a cash balance of ₹13,000 crore and a net debt-to-EBITDA ratio of 1.8x. One section also notes that net debt-to-EBITDA improved from 3.3x in FY21 to 1.8x by the end of Q2FY26.

On valuation, the material states APSEZ trades at a forward P/E of about 23.3x for 2026 (as per the cited note). Motilal Oswal’s valuation frameworks in different notes referenced FY28E EV/EBITDA multiples of 15x and 16x.

Brokerage consensus: targets cluster around ₹1,760 to ₹1,880

Beyond Motilal Oswal, the provided text lists multiple brokerages with constructive ratings and price targets. Jefferies is cited with a Buy and a target of ₹1,880. Nomura is cited with a Buy and a target of ₹1,850. Macquarie and CLSA are cited with Outperform ratings and targets of ₹1,760 and ₹1,764, respectively. Goldman Sachs is cited with a Buy and a target of ₹1,540. Antique Stock Broking is also referenced with a Buy and a target of ₹1,773.

Geopolitical risk: what the notes flagged

Motilal Oswal’s report referenced geopolitical tensions and specifically pointed to the Strait of Hormuz situation while arguing limited downside risk for APSEZ. Another data point in the text adds context: liquid cargo, which could be more affected in such events, accounts for less than 10% of total volumes, and crude oil and gas are described as a very small part of the overall cargo mix.

The broader conclusion across the provided material is not that risks do not exist, but that APSEZ’s cargo composition and business model are seen as comparatively resilient.

Key numbers at a glance

What investors will watch next

The near-term focus remains on execution across three areas repeatedly highlighted in the notes: sustaining cargo momentum, scaling integrated logistics and marine services, and maintaining balance-sheet discipline while expanding.

Another key watchpoint, as stated in the material, is progress toward APSEZ’s longer-term ambition of becoming India’s largest integrated transport utility by 2029. Future quarterly results, updates on port and logistics capacity additions, and any incremental disclosures around acquired assets such as NQXT are likely to shape how brokerages recalibrate targets and valuation multiples.