Aegis Logistics up 15% as brokers raise targets

Stock rally extends after earnings call

Aegis Logistics Ltd shares have risen almost 15% over the past two days, with investors reacting to management’s upbeat tone during the March quarter (Q4FY26) earnings call held on Tuesday. On Wednesday, the stock rose 3.65% to ₹811.35 after a foreign brokerage reiterated an ‘Overweight’ rating and increased its target price. The stock also touched an intraday high of ₹832.9 in the same session, and was trading at ₹822.35 at 11:10 am on June 10, up 5.07% from the previous close.

Separately, a reference price for AEGISLOG on June 10, 2026 was cited at ₹801, underscoring how quickly the stock has been moving across sessions and within the day. The immediate market focus is on how long elevated profitability in the gas-related business can hold, and whether the company can commission its upcoming capacity additions on time.

Q4FY26 segment performance sets the tone

Aegis’ quarterly numbers showed a clear divergence between its two terminal businesses. In Q4FY26, the gas terminal division posted record revenue of ₹2,410 crore, up nearly 65% year-on-year. In contrast, the liquids terminal division reported revenue of ₹184 crore, down 24% year-on-year.

The Q4 commentary has mattered because it coincides with unusual conditions in LPG supply chains. Brokerages highlighted that disruptions in LPG imports are affecting the market, and that Aegis’ distribution and logistics positioning is benefiting from those conditions in the near term.

Foreign brokerage: ‘Overweight’ reiterated, target raised to ₹1,150

The foreign brokerage raised its target price to ₹1,150 from ₹1,010 while maintaining an ‘Overweight’ view. Based on the cited market price of ₹811.35, the revised target implies about 42% upside potential.

In its note, the brokerage pointed to improving LPG supply conditions, saying the LPG supply shortfall narrowed to 30% in May from 50% in April. It expects LPG availability to normalize by the second quarter of FY27. It also noted that Aegis’ diversified sourcing has reduced dependence on Middle Eastern supplies, which it viewed as supportive for supply security amid global uncertainty.

Profitability lens: EBITDA per tonne and EPS upgrades

The same brokerage expects EBITDA per tonne of around ₹7,000 to remain sustainable through FY27 and FY28. Reflecting its improved outlook, it raised its earnings per share (EPS) estimates for FY27 and FY28 by 14% to 18%.

Those assumptions are important for investors because the share price reaction is not only about volumes, but also about the durability of per-unit profitability when supply conditions normalize. The market is also looking for confirmation that capacity additions and operational execution can keep pace with demand.

JM Financial vs MOFSL: brokerages split after Q4

Brokerages remain divided on the outlook for Aegis Logistics after its March quarter performance.

JM Financial has maintained a ‘Buy’ rating and raised its target price to ₹1,200 from ₹935 earlier. It cited sustained strength in the gas distribution business, elevated profitability, and a sizeable investment pipeline. Analysts Neelotpal Sahu, Priyankar Biswas, and Gaurav Jawalkar said strong EBITDA growth in the distribution segment during Q4FY26 could persist at least through H1FY27, supported by ongoing disruptions in LPG imports. They also flagged that headwinds could persist for the LPG logistics segment due to import supply disruptions, even as they expect strong growth in volumes and elevated profitability levels.

Motilal Oswal Financial Services (MOFSL), meanwhile, reiterated a ‘Neutral’ stance, acknowledging an earnings beat and improving margins but citing valuation and long-term demand dynamics as constraints.

Capex pipeline: scale is large, execution is a key monitorable

Aegis has outlined a cumulative investment opportunity of about $1 billion (approximately ₹4,15,000 crore) by FY31. Of this, around $1.2 billion (approximately ₹99,000 crore) is expected by March 2027, followed by ₹50,000 crore by March 2028.

JM Financial said that with a substantial portion of the $1 billion pipeline likely to be deployed during FY29 to FY31, project execution, funding mix, and the leverage trajectory remain key monitorables. The timely commissioning of upcoming capacity addition projects is also being tracked closely, given its direct impact on throughput, utilisation, and the ability to convert capex into earnings.

Additional financial context cited by market commentary

Beyond Q4FY26, other cited operating data points have been used to frame momentum. For the nine months ending December 31, 2025, Aegis reported a 13% year-on-year rise in operational revenue to ₹5,739 crore. Normalized EBITDA for the same period was cited at ₹929 crore, up 26%, while profit after tax (PAT) was reported at ₹652 crore, up 39%.

Another quarterly snapshot cited for Q2 FY26 showed consolidated revenue of ₹2,294 crore, up 31% year-on-year. Normalized EBITDA rose 46% year-on-year to ₹347 crore, while PAT increased 61% to ₹244 crore. A conservative debt gearing ratio of 0.6 times was also cited in that context.

Analysts’ consensus signals on FY27

A separate analyst consensus snapshot (five analysts) pegged revenues at ₹9,610 crore for 2027, implying 29% growth over the prior 12 months, with per-share earnings expected to rise 18% to ₹25.92. That set of estimates reconfirmed a price target of ₹903, with the most bullish analyst valuation at ₹1,030 and the most bearish at ₹750.

These ranges help explain why the stock can see sharp moves after broker updates, while still showing a spread of views on how much of the current strength should be capitalised into long-term valuation.

Key data points at a glance

What investors are likely to track next

Near-term attention remains on two operational variables: LPG supply conditions and execution timelines for capacity additions. Broker commentary has highlighted that disruptions have supported distribution profitability, but the duration of those conditions matters for earnings visibility.

Alongside operational factors, the funding mix for the planned investments and the resulting leverage trajectory will be watched. The market has also signalled that timely commissioning of projects is a key near-term monitorable, because delays can shift utilisation and returns, even when long-term demand remains supportive.

Conclusion

Aegis Logistics has seen a sharp share-price move as Q4FY26 results highlighted record gas terminal revenue and brokerages pointed to easing supply constraints and resilient profitability metrics. With target prices raised by some firms and others staying cautious on valuations, the next set of updates on project commissioning and capex execution timelines will be central to the stock narrative through FY27.