Airtel share price: targets up to ₹2,550 after Q4FY26

Airtel extends its winning streak

Bharti Airtel Ltd shares stayed firm on Friday, rising for the third straight session. In early trade, the stock climbed as much as 2.11% to a day’s high of ₹1,923.15. At that high, the counter was up as much as 7.55% over two sessions after the company announced its Q4FY26 results on Wednesday after market hours. The stock price cited for “today” in the provided data is ₹1,866.30. The move comes after a strong run over the past year, with the context also flagging a near 100% rally.

The recent rise matters because it arrives alongside a cluster of brokerage updates that lift target prices but vary on conviction. Several brokerages have highlighted tariff repair, ARPU expansion, and improving cash flows as key levers. At the same time, at least one commentary points to valuation comfort and execution on funding plans as the swing factor. That mix is keeping investor focus on what happens next in tariffs, cash generation, and deleveraging.

What triggered the latest set of calls

Airtel’s post-results momentum has coincided with multiple brokerage notes that either increased target prices or reiterated positive ratings. Nuvama retained a ‘Buy’ rating and put a target price of ₹2,550 per share, indicating 33% upside from the cited current level. Separately, an update titled “Nomura Adjusts Bharti Airtel's Price Target to INR2,300 from INR2,280, Keeps at Buy” suggests incremental optimism on valuation. Another Nomura note in the provided text raised its target to ₹2,280 from ₹1,850, supported by higher estimates for India wireless and homes.

Alongside these, Morgan Stanley’s update also supported sentiment. It raised its target price by 20% to ₹2,435 from ₹2,035 and maintained an ‘Overweight’ view. In that note, the brokerage said it expects the Indian telecom industry’s repair phase to continue in the near term. It also laid out multiple drivers for ARPU growth to mid-single digits in the medium term and double-digit growth in India EBITDA.

Nuvama: Buy call with a ₹2,550 target

Nuvama’s stance in the provided data is straightforward. It remains optimistic about Airtel’s growth trajectory, retained its ‘Buy’ rating, and set a target price of ₹2,550 per share. The note also quantified the implied upside at 33% from the “current levels” referenced in the context.

This target is one of the highest among those cited and arrives as the stock has already delivered sharp gains over the past year. That combination typically raises the bar for near-term catalysts, such as tariff actions or sustained ARPU improvement. The data does not provide Nuvama’s detailed model assumptions, but the optimism is positioned around the company’s broader growth trajectory.

Morgan Stanley: Overweight, tariff hike watch in Q1 FY27

Morgan Stanley’s note, dated to early trade on December 16 (Tuesday), described Airtel as a top gainer on the Nifty 50 and Sensex as shares rose to ₹2,103.50 in the morning. It increased its target price to ₹2,435 from ₹2,035, implying nearly 18% upside from the previous closing price cited in that note. The brokerage expects a tariff hike by the telecom major in the first quarter of the next financial year (Q1 FY27). It added that the stock is likely to reflect this in the coming months.

The note also discussed operating drivers. It expects ARPU growth to mid-single digits in the medium term, which it said can support double-digit growth in India EBITDA. It further expects the return ratio profile to improve sustainably to over 20%.

Motilal Oswal: Sector positive, multiple target frameworks

Motilal Oswal Financial Services (MOFSL) said Airtel had outperformed the market in calendar year 2025, rising 33% versus an 8% rise in the BSE Sensex. The brokerage argued that low inflation and the absence of major state elections in the next couple of months made the environment supportive for the next tariff hike. MOFSL built in a tariff hike of 15% (or about ₹50 per cycle on a 28-day 1.5GB per day plan) in December 2025.

MOFSL reiterated a ‘BUY’ rating with a target price of ₹2,365 per share. Elsewhere in the provided text, it also mentions a sum-of-the-parts (SoTP) approach with analysts arriving at a target price of ₹2,530 per share. MOFSL said management continues to prioritise financial discipline, targeting sustained free cash flow generation and progressive debt reduction.

The note also quantified cash generation expectations. With moderation in capex intensity and a potential tariff hike, MOFSL said Airtel is likely to generate significant free cash flow of about ₹100,000 crore over FY26-27E.

Nomura: Target raised on India wireless and homes

In a note filed at 0820 IST from Mumbai, Nomura raised its target price for Bharti Airtel by 23% to ₹2,280 from ₹1,850, citing increased estimates for the company’s India wireless and homes businesses. It also maintained a ‘buy’ rating on the stock in that note. The brokerage said it raised EBITDA estimates by 10% and 6% as it consolidated Indus Tower and fine-tuned ARPU and subscriber estimates.

For India wireless, Nomura cut FY26 and FY27 ARPU by 3% and 6% to ₹260 and ₹285, while factoring in 11% and 10% growth. It also noted a sensitivity point: Bharti’s FY26 EBITDA has 2% sensitivity to every ₹10 change in ARPU at current EBITDA margins. Nomura said it raised its target price due to a higher target EV/EBITDA multiple of 12x versus 11x earlier for the India wireless and homes businesses.

Separately, the broader context provided also mentions broker caution despite a near 100% rally, including a reference to Nomura downgrading to ‘Neutral’ while increasing its target price, citing the need for successful debt raises to fund its strategic plan.

Other brokerage targets highlighted in the data

Beyond the largest global houses, the provided text also includes multiple domestic brokerage targets. A separate section cites a ‘BUY’ recommendation with a target price of ₹2,300 per share. JM Financial Institutional Securities is also noted with a ‘Buy’ rating and a target price of ₹2,240, driven by its view that industry wireless ARPU will grow at 12%-13% CAGR over the next 3-5 years because of a consolidated industry structure.

Ambit Capital’s policy view is also included. It said that with the government condoning the July 2024 tariff hike by telcos and reiterating that India has “among the lowest data tariffs globally” to attract investments in digital infrastructure, policy risk to tariff-led ARPU growth assumptions appears limited. The same section adds that the brokerage expects continued tariff hikes till 2030.

Stock milestones and trading context from the excerpts

The excerpts include multiple price milestones from different sessions. One section says Airtel hit a new high of ₹2,159, surpassing its previous high of ₹2,135.75 touched on November 4, 2025. It also notes the stock was higher for the seventh straight trading day, rising 8% during that period. Another excerpt says shares were trading up 2% at ₹2,106 on the BSE in an otherwise weak market.

A separate passage says shares hit a new high of ₹2,093.70 after rallying 3% in Monday’s intraday trade on expectations of healthy earnings, and that the stock rose 11.5% in October in that segment. While these datapoints come from different days and contexts, together they underline how frequently Airtel has been printing fresh highs during the period referenced.

Key numbers at a glance

Market impact: what investors are tracking

The broker notes collectively highlight three market variables. First is tariff action, with Morgan Stanley expecting a tariff hike in Q1 FY27 and MOFSL building in a 15% hike in December 2025. Second is ARPU and its downstream impact on profitability, with Nomura explicitly quantifying FY26 EBITDA sensitivity of 2% for every ₹10 change in ARPU at current margins. Third is cash flow and deleveraging, with S&P forecasting FY26 consolidated adjusted EBITDA at about ₹120,000 crore and MOFSL modelling around ₹100,000 crore free cash flow over FY26-27E.

For the stock, the immediate impact has been continued strength and repeated new highs across the excerpts. But the provided context also flags caution after a steep run, including the need for successful debt raises to fund strategic plans in at least one referenced commentary. That makes the sustainability of cash flows, capex discipline, and financing execution central to how the market digests future tariff and ARPU outcomes.

Why this matters for the telecom sector narrative

The updates reflect a broader sector theme: “tariff repair” and industry consolidation supporting ARPU expansion. Morgan Stanley framed this as an “industry repair phase” continuing, while Ambit highlighted limited policy risk given the government’s stance after the July 2024 tariff hike. JM Financial’s ARPU CAGR assumption of 12%-13% over 3-5 years also fits the same direction of travel.

At the same time, as prices rise, the debate shifts from “is recovery happening” to “how much is already priced in.” That is where differences in target prices, EV/EBITDA multiples, and assumptions on timing and magnitude of tariff hikes become decisive. Investors are likely to keep focusing on confirmed tariff actions, realised ARPU movement, and the pace of free cash flow translating into lower net debt.

Conclusion

Airtel’s latest upswing has been supported by a series of broker updates that raised target prices and reiterated positive views on tariffs, ARPU, and cash flows. Targets in the provided data range up to ₹2,550, while key swing factors include the timing of tariff hikes, ARPU trajectory, and execution on cash generation and funding plans. The next major datapoints to watch, based on the broker commentary, are tariff decisions tied to Q1 FY27 expectations and the follow-through in reported cash flows and deleveraging.