Asian markets tumble as oil hits $115, Nikkei -5%

Sharp risk-off start to the week

Asian equities opened the week under heavy selling pressure, with Tokyo and Seoul leading losses as investors reacted to a fast-changing West Asia situation and higher energy prices. Reports from Monday trading showed broad declines across Asia-Pacific benchmarks, reflecting a sudden shift away from riskier assets. The move was closely tied to oil-market stress, as fears of disrupted energy flows pushed crude prices above the USD 100 per barrel mark in multiple updates. Market commentary in the reports linked the equity sell-off to escalating tensions involving the United States, Israel and Iran, and renewed focus on the Strait of Hormuz. The conflict was described as having completed one month since it began on February 28, with no immediate signs of de-escalation. Attacks on energy infrastructure and changes in shipping routes were cited as key pressure points for global supply. The result was a volatile mix of inflation concerns, growth worries, and abrupt repricing of risk across equities.

Japan: Nikkei and Topix slide as volatility spikes

Japan’s Nikkei 225 was among the worst-hit major indices in early Asia trading. One set of figures in the provided reports put the Nikkei down about 5% near the 50,950 level, while another update described a 3.5% fall with the index closing at 51,515.49. The broader Topix index was also reported lower, falling 3.4% to 3,486.44. Separately, other lines in the text described the Nikkei dropping nearly 5.2%, and another report said it plunged more than 7% to a two-month low. The combined picture across sources is consistent on direction: a sharp decline, even if point-in-time readings differed across reports and snapshots. The selling was linked to energy-price shock concerns and the risk of wider disruption to Gulf crude flows. Japan’s dependence on Middle East oil was also highlighted, with one report stating Japan sources 90% of its crude from the Middle East.

South Korea: Kospi slump and trading halts

South Korea’s KOSPI was repeatedly cited as a key driver of the regional sell-off, with reported declines ranging from around 4% to more than 6%, and separate updates referencing drops above 7% and around 8% in early trade. One line said the KOSPI declined about 4% to the 5,240 level, while another described a roughly 6% fall and noted that trading was halted for 20 minutes earlier in the day. Another report put the KOSPI down 6.2%, while a separate figure cited a 6.59% fall and another said it was last trading 7.9% lower. The Kosdaq was also reported sharply down, sliding 5.6% to 1,096.89 in one update. In addition, one report stated that South Korea’s exchange activated its second circuit breaker within four trading sessions. The trading halt and circuit-breaker references underlined the speed of the sell-off, not just its size.

What changed: Strait of Hormuz becomes the focal risk

The Strait of Hormuz featured as the central transmission channel from geopolitics to markets in the reports. Shipping companies were said to have suspended passage after Iran’s control over the strait became a dominant risk, tightening supply and pushing oil prices higher. Attacks on energy infrastructure in the region were also cited as disrupting global energy exports. Several paragraphs linked these developments directly to inflation fears and worries about economic stability. The conflict was described as having escalated into a major regional crisis, with no immediate signs of de-escalation. For Asia, the vulnerability is structural because major importers rely on Middle East crude and LNG shipped through this route. One report stated South Korea gets 70% of its crude from the Middle East, a data point that helps explain why Korean equities were especially sensitive to oil-price moves.

Trump’s 48-hour ultimatum and Iran’s retaliatory warnings

The sell-off was also tied to weekend political statements. The text referenced comments attributed to US President Donald Trump on Saturday, including a 48-hour ultimatum to Tehran over reopening the Strait of Hormuz, and a warning that he would “obliterate” Iran’s power plants if the passage was not fully reopened. In response, Iranian officials were reported to have threatened retaliation targeting energy and desalination infrastructure across the Gulf. The speaker of Iran’s Parliament, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, was quoted as saying that any assaults on Iran’s power plants would be met with immediate retaliation aimed at energy and oil infrastructure throughout the region. The quote added that critical energy and oil infrastructure would be deemed legitimate targets and would be destroyed, leading to a long-term increase in oil prices. These statements were presented as a key catalyst for the sudden reassessment of risk at the start of the trading week.

Oil moves: Brent above $100, volatility and a wide Brent-WTI spread

Crude prices were presented as both the cause and the amplifier of the equity shock. One figure in the text showed Brent crude surging to USD 115.61 per barrel, heightening concern over inflation and macro stability. Another update described Brent rebounding to gain 0.65% to USD 112.57 per barrel, while WTI was reported up 0.8% at USD 99 per barrel. Elsewhere, benchmark crude was described as having surged past USD 100 and briefly climbed as high as USD 111, while another line said WTI briefly exceeded USD 115 per barrel on Monday morning. The reports also noted that the spread between Brent and WTI exceeded USD 14 per barrel, which some analysts described as a signal of peak stress in the oil shock. A separate note said Saudi Arabia releasing crude into the market helped oil prices ease intraday, even as oil remained above USD 100 per barrel amid production cuts by Middle Eastern producers.

Spillover across Asia, including India

Beyond Japan and South Korea, declines were also reported across other key Asian benchmarks. Vietnam’s VN-Index was said to be down about 5.7%, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index was reported down roughly 1.8%. India’s Nifty 50 was reported down by 2.5% in morning trading, and another line said futures tied to India’s Nifty 50 fell more than 2%. One Hindi-language update in the text also claimed that the BSE Sensex fell by almost 1,000 points in early trade. The same collection of reports noted that Monday’s declines added to a longer slide since the start of the conflict, including a statement that the KOSPI was down 16% since the Iran war began, the Nikkei 225 was down 10%, and Australia’s ASX 200 was down 6% over the same timeframe.

Tech and semiconductors take a hit

The selling pressure was described as particularly heavy in technology shares, as investors positioned for an inflation jolt from higher oil. In South Korea, chip heavyweights Samsung Electronics Co. and SK Hynix Inc. were cited as major drags, each dropping more than 7% in one report. Another line described a “semiconductor-led tech sell-off” as the KOSPI plunged by over 7%. Separately, the text stated that the energy shock reversed earlier gains in Asia’s technology and AI-related growth stocks that had rallied ahead of the Gulf tensions. The mechanism described in the reports was straightforward: higher energy prices risk higher inflation, which can delay rate cuts or bring back rate-hike fears, and that tends to pressure long-duration growth and tech valuations.

Key data points from the reports

Market impact and why this matters

The combined reporting points to a classic risk-off chain reaction: geopolitics tightened energy supply expectations, oil spiked, and equities repriced quickly to reflect higher inflation risk and weaker growth confidence. The cited oil levels above USD 100, including Brent at USD 115.61 per barrel in one update, are central because they feed into transport, manufacturing costs, and consumer inflation expectations. For Asia-Pacific markets, the Strait of Hormuz risk matters more than for many other regions because multiple economies rely heavily on Gulf crude flows, with the text stating Japan at 90% and South Korea at 70% dependence on Middle East crude. The reports also noted a technical signal from the US, saying all three major Wall Street indices moved below their 200-day moving averages for the first time since spring 2025, reinforcing the notion of broader risk aversion. Bank research was also referenced: Goldman Sachs was said to have raised its outlook, expecting Brent to average USD 110 during March-April (from USD 98 earlier), while WTI was expected to average USD 98 in March and rise to USD 105 in April. These figures illustrate that institutions were adjusting assumptions to a higher oil-price regime, at least over the near term described.

What investors will track next

Based on the details in the reports, the next market inputs are likely to be developments around shipping access in the Strait of Hormuz, any additional attacks on energy infrastructure, and official steps that change physical supply conditions. Traders will also monitor whether oil remains above USD 100 per barrel, and whether the Brent-WTI spread continues to signal stress. In equities, attention will likely remain on tech-heavy indices that were described as vulnerable to renewed inflation and rate uncertainty, particularly in South Korea where semiconductors were cited as major drags. Any additional exchange interventions, including circuit breakers or trading halts, will also be watched for signals of stress in liquidity and price discovery. For Indian markets, the reported drop in Nifty futures and the steep early move in Sensex underscore sensitivity to global oil and risk sentiment, especially when crude volatility is high. The conflict timeline referenced in the text, including its start on February 28 and the weekend 48-hour ultimatum, sets a clear near-term window for headline-driven volatility.