BFSI stocks: Axis top 9 picks ahead of Q4 FY26 results

Why these BFSI calls are in focus

Axis Securities and Axis Direct have highlighted a set of banking and NBFC stocks as preferred picks ahead of quarterly results, arguing that a recent correction has reset valuations. The brokerages see selective opportunities across large private banks, PSU banks, mid-sized lenders, small finance banks, and consumer and housing-focused NBFCs. Their stated upside estimates cluster between 26% and 45% across nine names. The list includes widely tracked heavyweights such as ICICI Bank, State Bank of India (SBI), Kotak Mahindra Bank, and Bajaj Finance, alongside Federal Bank, AU Small Finance Bank, Ujjivan Small Finance Bank, Shriram Finance, and Can Fin Homes.

Axis Securities “result plays”: banks and NBFCs

Axis Securities categorised its key “positive result plays” across banks and NBFCs. On the banking side, it flagged ICICI Bank, SBI, Federal Bank, AU Small Finance Bank, and Ujjivan Small Finance Bank. In NBFCs, it pointed to Cholamandalam Investment & Finance, CreditAccess Grameen, Bajaj Finance, and Can Fin Homes. The emphasis in the notes was on growth visibility and asset quality stability, rather than a single catalyst. The brokerages also referenced broader sector conditions, including recent underperformance driven by global uncertainty and domestic headwinds.

Price targets: where Axis sees upside

Axis Direct published a consolidated view with explicit targets and upside estimates for nine BFSI stocks. These are presented as potential returns from then-current levels and are not uniform across all notes.

SBI: target ₹1,350, credit growth view, and valuation

On SBI, Axis Securities maintained a ‘Buy’ rating with a target price of ₹1,350. In one note, this target was described as implying a 38% potential upside, while another Axis Direct summary pegged the upside at around 31%. The brokerage’s positive view was linked to an upgraded credit growth forecast of 13% to 15%, supported by a recovering corporate sector and steady retail demand. It also cited improved asset quality, stable margins, and SBI’s positioning in corporate and retail credit.

The write-up added valuation context: as of April 2026, SBI’s TTM P/E was around 10.5. The same comparison set out private bank multiples of about 15.6x for HDFC Bank, 15.2x for ICICI Bank, and 14.13x for Axis Bank, against a banking sector average P/E of 22.0. Despite recent market volatility, SBI was described as down about 1%, and positioned as a defensive large-cap within the sector.

Bajaj Finance: growth assumptions and profitability metrics

Axis Securities reiterated its ‘Buy’ call on Bajaj Finance with a target price of ₹1,150. The expected upside is presented differently across notes, including 42% to 43% in separate summaries. The brokerage forecast AUM CAGR of 24% and earnings CAGR of 27% for FY27 to FY28. It attributed the growth expectations to stable net interest margins (NIMs), operating leverage, and better asset quality translating into lower credit costs.

For profitability expectations, Axis indicated RoA of 4.3% to 4.4% and RoE of 19% to 21% for FY26 to FY28. As of April 2026, Bajaj Finance’s TTM P/E was cited at around 27 to 28, aligning with its positioning as a growth stock in the brokerage commentary.

Kotak Mahindra Bank: overweight call and watchpoints

Kotak Mahindra Bank was named a ‘Top Pick’ with an ‘Overweight’ rating and a target price of ₹515. The upside estimate was stated at 46% in one section, while Axis Direct’s table cited 45%, and another market check referenced “over 41%” from then-current levels. Axis Securities said it expects sustained, high-quality growth, supported by improvements in asset quality within Kotak’s unsecured loan book. It also projected credit growth of 17% for FY26 to FY28.

The note also flagged valuation and stock performance context. Kotak’s TTM P/E was cited at about 30.6, with the text acknowledging other reported figures of 19.06 or 22.3 as well. The stock was described as having declined 21.04% year-on-year, and down 19.29% over the past year in another reference. It also mentioned Kotak touching a 52-week low of ₹350.95, and at one market check, the share price was quoted at ₹364.25, down 2.22% on the BSE.

Mid-sized and small finance banks: Federal, AU SFB, Ujjivan SFB

Axis Direct’s preferred list also included mid-sized and small finance banks with specified targets. Federal Bank was assigned a target price of ₹320, implying an estimated 26% upside. AU Small Finance Bank carried a target of ₹1,160, implying about 37% upside.

Ujjivan Small Finance Bank was among the more bullish calls in the set, with a target price of ₹74 and a stated upside potential of about 45%. Separately, Axis Securities also included AU Small Finance Bank and Ujjivan Small Finance Bank in its “positive result plays” list for banks.

NBFC add-ons: Shriram Finance and Can Fin Homes

Beyond Bajaj Finance, Axis Direct’s list included Shriram Finance with a target of ₹1,200, implying around 37% upside. Housing finance player Can Fin Homes carried a target price of ₹1,125, also implying nearly 37% upside. Axis Securities also named Can Fin Homes among its NBFC “positive result plays.”

Market impact: what investors are tracking from these notes

The common thread across the broker commentary is that the correction in BFSI stocks has made valuations more selective, and price targets are being framed as upside from then-prevailing levels. The notes place weight on credit growth, asset quality, margin stability, and operating leverage, with stock-specific metrics used to justify relative preference. Valuation dispersion is a key part of the argument, with SBI’s TTM P/E around 10.5 contrasted against mid-teens multiples for HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank, and Axis Bank, and a 22.0 sector average cited in the same text.

At the same time, the target-price snapshots show that upside estimates vary across write-ups for the same stock, depending on the reference price and the specific Axis note being cited. For investors, that makes the underlying operational assumptions, such as credit growth guidance ranges and asset quality commentary, as important as the headline upside percentage.

Conclusion

Axis Securities and Axis Direct have put forward a focused BFSI list spanning large banks, small finance banks, and NBFCs, with stated upside potential largely in the 26% to 45% band. SBI and Bajaj Finance remain central calls, supported by credit growth expectations and profitability assumptions, while Kotak Mahindra Bank is positioned as a top pick but with valuation and recent price performance clearly flagged. As Q4 results approach, these broker targets and stated operating assumptions are likely to stay in focus as investors compare reported numbers against the growth and asset-quality expectations outlined in the notes.