Bajaj Finance stock: targets up to ₹1,210 after Q1

Market consensus snapshot

Market expectations for Bajaj Finance stock remain skewed towards positive ratings based on publicly available brokerage views and market data. The consensus split cited was 70.59% Buy, 11.76% Hold, and 17.65% Sell. Brokerages broadly retained bullish calls after results updates, pointing to growth visibility and an improving credit cost outlook in their base case. At the same time, a minority of global houses stayed cautious, citing stress signals in specific loan segments. The combination has kept the stock in focus following earnings-related headlines and management commentary.

Stock reaction around results

Bajaj Finance shares rose over 3% in early trade on Thursday, extending the prior session’s modest gains. The stock was quoted at ₹962.6, up 3.5%, after ending Wednesday at ₹930 ahead of results. Separate references in the same coverage also used prices around ₹913.65 as “current market price” and ₹959 as a Thursday close on BSE in the context of a brokerage target comparison. These data points indicate that the stock moved within the ₹900-₹960 band in the immediate post-result window, with direction influenced by both numbers and commentary.

Q4 takeaways: bullish stance largely holds

Post Q4 results, most brokerages maintained bullish ratings despite a marginal miss on some key metrics, according to the coverage. The dominant view was that the company delivered a steady quarter broadly in line with expectations. Broker notes highlighted continued confidence on growth and profitability trends. The same set of reports also indicated target prices going as high as ₹1,210 per share, signalling sizeable upside from then-prevailing levels.

Broker calls and target prices in focus

Several named brokerages reiterated positive ratings with specific price targets. HSBC, Nomura and Jefferies maintained buy calls with targets of ₹1,100, ₹1,140 and ₹1,210 respectively. JPMorgan was also described as positive in one segment with an overweight rating and a ₹1,080 target, while another segment later in the coverage referenced a downgrade to neutral citing MSME stress. Citi was mentioned as upgrading the stock to buy with a target of ₹1,120. On the cautious end, Macquarie remained an outlier with an underperform rating and a target of ₹860, implying a downside of about 7-8% from the referenced level.

Key brokerage targets and ratings (as cited)

Q1FY26 performance: PAT, AUM, customers

In the Q1FY26 update referenced, Bajaj Finance’s PAT rose 22% to ₹4,765 crore, supported by a rise in net interest income and loan book growth. A separate brokerage note in the same compilation cited PAT of ₹4,120 crore for Q1FY26, describing it as a 22% year-on-year increase, indicating a difference in the referenced measure (standalone versus consolidated). Assets under management (AUM) were reported at around ₹4.41 lakh crore as of June 30, 2025, up 25% YoY, with ₹24,750 crore added during the quarter. The customer franchise was also highlighted, with the base expanding to 106.51 million from 88.11 million a year earlier, and 4.69 million new customers added in Q1FY26.

Concerns: MSME and two-wheeler stress, credit costs

Despite broadly “in-line” results, multiple notes pointed to stress in the MSME and two-wheeler loan segments as a reason for caution. This theme was linked to why the stock could trade down even after good numbers, with management commentary described as more cautious on MSME. Elara Capital’s Shweta Daptardar was cited as flagging rising credit costs at 2.02%, even while seeing robust growth. The same coverage also said several global brokerages including JPMorgan, UBS, Macquarie, and Bernstein had downgraded or reaffirmed negative outlooks due to these stress indicators.

Valuation references used by brokerages

Valuation anchors were explicitly mentioned in a few notes. Emkay Global said its revised target implied a FY27E P/B of 5x. Nirmal Bang said it arrived at a ₹978 target using a multiple of 4x Jun-27E adjusted book value, after factoring in lower cost of funds and controlled operating expenses and raising FY27 estimates. Another hold note referenced valuing the standalone business at 4.5 times estimated book value per share for September 2026, plus ₹143 attributed to the housing subsidiary, alongside a revised ₹910 target (up from ₹865) against a cited current market price of ₹913.65.

Market impact: what moved sentiment

The immediate market impact was driven by a mix of price action, target revisions, and debate about asset quality trends. On one side, bullish houses focused on AUM growth, profitability trajectory, and the possibility of better credit cost outcomes. On the other, cautious commentary about MSME weakness and competitive pressures contributed to downgrades and a more mixed reaction after the print. The difference in broker positioning is reflected in the consensus split that still shows a clear majority of “buy” ratings, but with a meaningful “sell” minority.

Analysis: why these updates matter for investors

The story is less about a single quarter’s headline number and more about whether Bajaj Finance can sustain high growth while keeping credit costs in check. The reports underline that even with strong AUM expansion and customer additions, pockets like MSME and two-wheeler can influence near-term perception of risk. Broker target dispersion from ₹860 to ₹1,210 shows the market is weighing the same datapoints differently, particularly around asset quality and valuation multiples. Investors are also tracking how brokerages frame the trade-off between growth and credit costs, with at least one cited credit cost figure at 2.02% becoming a reference point in discussions.

Key figures mentioned in the coverage

What to watch next

The same set of notes also referenced expectations of steady Q1 numbers, with PAT seen rising up to 19.5% YoY and NII seen jumping up to 24%, indicating that the market is closely tracking momentum beyond one quarter. In the near term, the key watchpoints flagged were MSME stress indicators, two-wheeler loan performance, and how credit costs evolve versus expectations. Investors will also track further brokerage revisions as additional commentary and segment-level trends become clearer.

Conclusion

Brokerages remain largely constructive on Bajaj Finance, with multiple buy calls and targets stretching up to ₹1,210, even as a minority stays cautious around MSME and two-wheeler stress. The next leg of market reaction is likely to hinge on how growth, asset quality, and credit costs track against the concerns and assumptions outlined in these reports.