Banking stocks: Buy calls and targets for Q4FY26

Why broker Q4 previews matter for BFSI investors

Multiple brokerages have published Q4FY26 season previews and post-results conviction lists for banking and NBFC stocks, with targets that frame near-term expectations around earnings quality, credit growth, margins and asset quality. The notes also show how different research houses are positioning across private banks, PSU banks, mid-sized lenders, small finance banks and consumer-focused NBFCs. While ratings and targets vary across reports, the overlap in preferred names is notable, especially around ICICI Bank, State Bank of India (SBI), Kotak Mahindra Bank and Bajaj Finance.

Systematix Q4 preview: 10 Buy calls, 2 Holds

Systematix Institutional Equities said it has a ‘Buy’ rating on 10 banks in its coverage universe, while it suggested ‘Hold’ on two others. Its Buy list included SBI, ICICI Bank, Kotak Mahindra Bank (KMB), Bank of Baroda and Union Bank. The remaining Buy-rated names mentioned were Axis Bank, HDFC Bank, Bank of India, Bank of Maharashtra (BOM) and Federal Bank. IndusInd Bank and Indian Bank were the two ‘Hold’ calls.

Systematix also flagged its top three banking picks as SBI, ICICI Bank and KMB. In the targets cited from its note, Systematix suggested ₹1,670 for ICICI Bank, ₹1,250 for SBI and ₹480 for KMB. It also assigned targets of ₹335 for Bank of Baroda, ₹205 for Union Bank and ₹1,560 for Axis Bank.

Axis Securities after Q4FY26 earnings: “top conviction ideas”

Axis Securities identified “top conviction ideas” across private banks, PSU banks, small finance banks and NBFCs after the Q4FY26 earnings season. On large banks, it reiterated a ‘Buy’ on ICICI Bank with a target price of ₹1,700 and also maintained SBI as a preferred PSU lender with a ‘Buy’ rating and a target price of ₹1,285 in one cited section. It also kept Kotak Mahindra Bank on its list with a ‘Buy’ call and a target price of ₹500.

Among mid-sized lenders, Axis Securities assigned Federal Bank a ‘Buy’ rating with a target price of ₹340. In small finance banks, Ujjivan Small Finance Bank featured with a target price of ₹78. In NBFCs, Bajaj Finance remained a top pick with a target price of ₹1,160. Separately, Axis Securities also said it remains constructive on select NBFCs such as Shriram Finance and CreditAccess Grameen, citing improving asset quality trends, healthy growth outlook and stable margins as key investment drivers.

Axis Direct: nine BFSI targets and upside estimates

Axis Securities and Axis Direct also highlighted a set of banking and NBFC stocks ahead of quarterly results, arguing that a recent correction has reset valuations. The brokerages’ stated upside estimates clustered between 26% and 45% across nine names spanning large banks, small finance banks and NBFCs. Axis Direct published a consolidated view with explicit targets and potential upside estimates, presented as potential returns from then-current levels.

The notes also showed small variations in targets and implied upside for the same stock across different Axis summaries. For example, SBI was mentioned with a ₹1,350 target and upside figures cited as 38% in one place and around 31% in another Axis Direct summary. Kotak Mahindra Bank was described as a ‘Top Pick’ with an ‘Overweight’ rating and a ₹515 target, with upside estimates cited as 46% in one section and 45% in the table.

Mirae Asset Sharekhan: Buy calls on large private banks

Mirae Asset Sharekhan began the Q4 earnings season with ‘Buy’ calls on three large private banks: HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank and Axis Bank. It set a target price of ₹1,025 for HDFC Bank with a Buy call. For Axis Bank, it set a target price of ₹1,490 and noted the stock was trading 2.52% higher at ₹1,351 in the afternoon session mentioned in the report.

A broader “Buy” list: 23 BFSI stocks and more targets

A separate compilation also referenced a broader set of BFSI stocks with ‘Buy’ calls and targets. In that list, Axis Securities set targets of ₹1,020 for HDFC Bank and ₹1,700 for ICICI Bank, while Kotak Mahindra Bank was pegged at ₹515 and SBI at ₹1,350. Other banking picks in the same list included Bank of Baroda (₹360), Bandhan Bank (₹160), City Union Bank (₹360), Federal Bank (₹320), DCB Bank (₹225) and IDFC First Bank (₹87).

JM Financial and Systematix: ratings spread across Buy, Add and Sell

JM Financial’s ratings included ‘Buy’ on ICICI Bank (target ₹1,550), Axis Bank (₹1,400), SBI (₹1,210), City Union Bank (₹280), DCB Bank (₹200) and Ujjivan Small Finance Bank (₹66). It also listed YES Bank as the only lender with a ‘Sell’ rating and a target price of ₹16. JM Financial’s ‘Add’ ratings included HDFC Bank (₹850), Kotak Mahindra Bank (₹390), Federal Bank (₹290), Bandhan Bank (₹160), Bank of Baroda (₹280), Punjab National Bank (₹115) and AU Small Finance Bank (₹950).

In another Systematix target compilation cited, Systematix had ‘Buy’ ratings with targets including ICICI Bank (₹1,630), Bank of Baroda (₹330), Kotak Mahindra Bank (₹475), Union Bank of India (₹225), HDFC Bank (₹960), SBI (₹1,300), Axis Bank (₹1,530), Bank of India (₹175), Bank of Maharashtra (₹80) and Federal Bank (₹310). It also listed ‘Hold’ on Indian Bank (₹990) and IndusInd Bank (₹890).

What investors can take away from the target dispersion

Across the notes, the common thread is selectivity, with repeated preference for a few large lenders and a smaller set of mid-sized and small finance banks. The same stock can carry different targets depending on the brokerage’s assumptions and the specific note referenced, so readers typically need to map targets to the date and context of the report. Still, overlapping “preferred picks” across houses can help investors shortlist names for deeper work, especially when the calls are backed by specific drivers cited in the notes.

Conclusion

Brokerage previews and post-results notes for Q4FY26 show an active preference list across banks and NBFCs, led by repeated mentions of ICICI Bank, SBI, Kotak Mahindra Bank and Bajaj Finance. Systematix maintained a wide Buy list with two Holds, while Axis Securities and Axis Direct highlighted targets and upside bands across nine BFSI names. As the quarterly cycle progresses, investors will likely track whether upcoming results and management commentary align with the growth, margin and asset-quality assumptions embedded in these targets.