Steel prices jump in Brazil; India output up 11% in 2026

Global steel prices extend gains into early May

Global steel prices rose across major markets in April and early May, according to Goldman Sachs’ Global Steel: The Steel Market Barometer – May Update. The bank said average hot rolled coil (HRC) prices increased in nearly all major regions during April, signaling firmer conditions for both flats and longs. Brazil stood out as the best-performing market on month-on-month and year-to-date measures. The update also flagged a split developing in the supply picture, with China’s output remaining under pressure while India continued to post strong production growth. For Indian investors and steel buyers, the combination of global pricing strength and domestic demand resilience is now the key context.

HRC: Brazil tops the monthly and year-to-date chart

Goldman Sachs said Brazil recorded a 10% month-on-month rise in HRC prices in April, the strongest among tracked regions. Japan followed with a 6.5% rise, and China posted a 2.9% increase. On a year-to-date basis, Brazil again led with a 21% jump in HRC prices. The United States saw prices rise 15% year-to-date, while other major regions posted gains between 6% and 13%. The breadth of these moves indicates that April’s improvement was not confined to one geography, even though the pace differed sharply across markets.

Long steel prices strengthen, led by rebar in Brazil

The Goldman report also noted that long steel prices strengthened globally in April. Brazil topped the rebar price chart with a 12% month-on-month rise. Europe followed with a 6.9% increase, while the Black Sea region recorded a 6.1% rise. The pattern across flats and longs matters because it points to broader price firmness rather than a product-specific spike. For steelmakers, synchronized improvement across product categories can support spreads, depending on raw material moves.

China supply: output pressure, but execution delays flagged

On the supply side, Goldman said China’s steel production remained under pressure, with output down 3.2% year-on-year in the first two weeks of May. The bank attributed this to delays in implementing planned capacity cuts and production discipline measures. While Goldman said the “anti-involution” effort and the long-term capacity cut plan remain intact, it expects delayed execution in 2026 in terms of both capacity and production discipline. This nuance matters for global price formation because delayed supply action can prolong competitive pressure through exports, even if the long-term direction is toward rationalisation.

India production momentum: March output growth accelerates

India continued to show strong momentum in steel production, according to the Goldman update. The bank said India’s crude steel output growth accelerated to 11% year-on-year in March. That compared with 10% growth on a year-to-date basis and 7% growth recorded in February. The sequential acceleration highlights that India is growing volumes at a pace that stands out among large producing nations, even as China’s output is described as being under pressure.

Price outlook: Goldman expects stability, US seen stronger

Looking ahead, Goldman expects steel prices to remain relatively stable across major global markets through the rest of 2026. It also expects US steel prices to stay stronger than those in Europe, China and Brazil. The bank’s stance implies less volatility than the sharp monthly changes seen in April, but still recognises divergent regional price strength. For market participants, “stable” pricing in a higher range can be as important as a rally, especially when companies are planning production, inventory and contract resets.

Stainless steel: growth continues, but Asia dominates additions

Separately, global stainless steel output is expected to expand for a fourth consecutive year in 2026, but growth is increasingly uneven by region. Worldstainless reported global crude stainless steel production of 64.16 million tonnes in 2025, up 2.1% year-on-year, a slowdown from 7% in 2024. Q4 2025 grew 0.8%, reflecting weak Chinese mill margins and a second consecutive year of EU melt-shop decline. Analyst consensus cited in the material (SMM, Fastmarkets, Mordor) pegs 2026 global growth at 2-3%, taking output toward 65.5-66.0 million tonnes. China represented 63.7% of world production in 2025 at 40.87 million tonnes, and the Asia-ex-China basket (Indonesia, India, South Korea, Japan, Taiwan) added another 14.4 million tonnes.

Broker views: Jefferies and Goldman turn constructive on India steel

Jefferies and Goldman Sachs have also issued positive notes on the steel sector, with a focus on the implications of China’s changing balance and India’s domestic pricing. Jefferies said China’s steel exports, after reaching record highs in 2025, declined 9% year-on-year in the January-March quarter of 2026. The brokerage also said Indian steel prices are up around 20% so far this year, compared with a 10% rise in China’s export steel prices over the same period, and linked support to a 12% safeguard duty implemented in December 2025. Jefferies added that a “mean reversion” in Asian conversion spreads could potentially lift Indian steel prices by a further 13% to Rs 65,800, versus spot at Rs 58,000. Goldman, in its sector positioning, highlighted India’s vertical integration in iron ore as a structural cost advantage and said it expects domestic steel consumption to grow at a 6.8% CAGR through FY32E compared with FY23.

Key data points at a glance

Why it matters for Indian steel stocks and buyers

For Indian listed steelmakers, the global price firming described by Goldman comes alongside a domestic production growth profile that remains strong. Broker commentary ties domestic pricing resilience to safeguard duties and a narrowing gap between local prices and landed imports from China. At the same time, the same set of notes points to uncertainty in China’s supply discipline timing, which can influence export intensity and regional spreads. Goldman’s longer-term framing, that India is driving incremental global steel consumption this decade, supports the investment narrative around capacity ramp-ups and operating leverage, although the near-term environment still depends on realised prices and input costs. In stainless, the shift toward Asia-led additions and Europe’s contraction can reshape trade flows, while price forecasts cited for 2026 vary widely across institutions.

Conclusion

April’s move higher in steel prices was broad-based, with Brazil leading gains in both HRC and rebar, while India continued to post double-digit crude steel output growth in March. Goldman expects prices to stay relatively stable through the rest of 2026, with the US market likely to remain stronger than Europe, China and Brazil. Investors will continue to track China’s pace of capacity and production discipline, India’s domestic pricing versus imports under safeguard duties, and the direction of global stainless output into 2026.