Brent crude tops $106 in 2026 as Iran war drags

Oil climbs as the war shows no clear end

Brent crude prices pushed higher on Friday, with traders reacting to signs that the U.S.-Iran conflict may not be nearing a quick resolution. Brent rose 1.4% to $106.57 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) gained 1.3% to $17.06 a barrel. The immediate driver was a deterioration in supply conditions around the Strait of Hormuz, alongside messaging from Washington that did not signal urgency around a settlement.

Market participants focused on the risk that disruptions in the Persian Gulf could persist, rather than fade. In this backdrop, even small changes in official language or military posture have been moving prices sharply. The week’s trading showed repeated swings as traders tried to price the probability of renewed strikes, ceasefire breakdowns, and any reopening of key shipping lanes.

Trump’s “Don’t rush me” line becomes a market catalyst

A key moment came after reporters at the White House asked President Donald Trump on Thursday when the war with Iran would end. He responded: “Don’t rush me.” The comment was widely treated as the most consequential signal of the week because it suggested no near-term push for closure.

In the hours that followed, crude extended gains into Friday. Reports also said air strikes in and around Iran on Thursday contributed to a sharp spike in oil that day, with Trump’s late-evening stance adding momentum. The market reaction underlined how much pricing is being driven by perceived duration risk, not only the intensity of the conflict.

Strait of Hormuz risks intensify amid naval orders

Alongside the political deadlock, the military situation has been described as worsening. The U.S. seized Iranian boats said to be trying to get around a barrier and ordered the Navy to attack Iranian boats alleged to be laying mines in the water. CNN reported that the U.S. military is working on new ways to hit Iranian weapons in the Strait of Hormuz if the current ceasefire fails.

Even with an “official” ceasefire label in place in some reporting, the new naval instructions were framed as creating conditions where fighting could restart at any time. That uncertainty, combined with persistent threats to shipping, has kept crude prices sensitive to each update from the region.

Peace talks stall, blockade language returns

Reports also linked the price action to stalled diplomacy. After U.S. peace talks with Iran ended in stalemate, Trump said the U.S. Navy would begin a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. Reopening the strait was described as a key condition in efforts to reach a deal, as the disruption has been tied to broader global economic turmoil.

Iran’s top mediator for Pakistan-backed talks reportedly quit, adding another layer of uncertainty to negotiations. Trump also claimed Iran might have reloaded weapons during a pause, and said the U.S. was prepared to prevent any buildup.

Volatility builds: Brent briefly above $110, WTI jumps

Price moves earlier in the period highlighted how quickly sentiment has been shifting. In another volatile session described in the provided material, Brent briefly rose past $110 per barrel before retreating on news of possible 45-day truce discussions. During Asian hours, Brent was cited near $109.80, up 0.7%, while U.S. benchmark crude was referenced at $111.62.

A separate report on Thursday said Brent futures closed at $109.03, up $1.87 or 7.78%, while WTI settled at $111.54, up $11.42 or 11.41%. Both benchmarks were said to remain below highs near $120 touched earlier in the conflict.

What triggered the shock: conflict timeline and pre-war price levels

The confrontation was described as having ignited when American and Israeli forces conducted strikes against Iranian targets on February 28. Before the conflict, Brent was hovering around $10 per barrel. The benchmark crossed $100 after Trump warned Iran would be bombed “back to the Stone Ages,” as cited in the material.

Trump’s messaging has also included threats to strike Iranian infrastructure if the Strait is not reopened. One report described an ultimatum with a Tuesday 8:00 p.m. Eastern Time cutoff and threats against bridges and electrical infrastructure. Iranian officials were reported to have dismissed the deadline, and Tehran’s Revolutionary Guard warned it would escalate attacks on American economic targets if civilian sites continued being attacked.

Supply levers: OPEC+ adds 206,000 bpd, but delivery questioned

On the supply side, OPEC+ members approved a modest 206,000 barrels per day production boost for May, though “delivery remains questionable,” according to the same material. That caveat matters because the supply risk priced into crude is centered on shipping constraints and conflict escalation, not only on headline OPEC+ quotas.

Separate commentary noted that the Strait of Hormuz carries roughly one-fifth of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas, reinforcing why markets are reacting strongly to any blockade or closure scenario.

Bank scenarios and curve signals point to stress

Market pricing and bank scenarios in the provided text reflected elevated tail risks. Goldman Sachs was cited as calling $115 to $120 a worst-case range if the conflict escalates and supply conditions worsen. Citi said Brent could average $15 per barrel in a base case and $130 in a bull case in the second half of the year.

JP Morgan said prices could climb to $120 to $130 in the near term, and could rise above $150 if the Strait remains closed into the middle of May. In another market signal, WTI was reported trading at nearly $1 over Brent, with that premium described as the highest in a year, partly reflecting contract timing differences.

Why this matters for India and global consumers

The energy shock is being framed as inflationary, with higher crude and products like diesel tightening global price pressures. One report said the war, in its fifth week, has effectively closed the Strait, “choking supplies” of crude, natural gas, and refined products to global markets.

India appeared in the broader diplomatic picture through a UK-led virtual meeting of around 40 countries discussing options to reopen the strait, with India seeking safe navigation and warning of energy security risks. The material also noted India expanded energy imports from 20 to 41 countries, aiming to reduce reliance on West Asia through diversification, reserves, and new suppliers including Russia, the U.S., Brazil, and Africa.

Key numbers and milestones

Bottom line: pricing the duration of disruption

Crude’s latest rise reflects a market that is heavily focused on the duration of the conflict and the status of the Strait of Hormuz. Trump’s “Don’t rush me” comment, combined with reports of naval orders and stalled talks, reinforced the idea that near-term resolution is uncertain. Meanwhile, modest supply additions like the OPEC+ May increase have not offset the risk premium tied to shipping disruption and renewed military action.

The next major swing factors, based on the provided material, remain any confirmed movement on reopening the Strait, the status of ceasefire terms, and whether U.S. and Iranian positions shift from stalemate to a defined framework such as the proposed 45-day truce.