BSE to enter Nifty50 in Sep 2026, Axis Capital sees

What the September 2026 Nifty50 rejig could change

Domestic brokerage Axis Capital expects BSE Ltd to replace Wipro Ltd in the Nifty50 in the next semi-annual index rebalancing scheduled for September 2026. Reports cited by ET said the announcement could come in the latter part of August, with changes expected to be implemented from September 30, 2026. The move matters because Nifty50 entry and exit decisions typically trigger significant passive fund buying and selling by index-tracking funds.

Axis Capital’s current estimates are based on partial data available from February 1 to May 15, within the official six-month evaluation window. That window runs from February 1 to July 31, and the Index Maintenance Sub-Committee uses six-month average figures to decide potential inclusions and exclusions. Based on the data set tracked so far, Axis Capital expects one constituent change in Nifty50, five changes in Nifty Next 50, and no changes in Bank Nifty.

Timeline: window, announcement, and effective date

The Nifty indices follow a defined process around cut-off dates and implementation. Axis Capital’s note, as reported, points to a second-half-of-August communication, followed by an end-September effective date. That gap is important because it is typically when passive funds and other investors position themselves ahead of the inclusion and exclusion.

The eligibility assessment uses the six-month average data between February 1 and July 31. While the current call is based on data only up to May 15, both Axis Capital and other market commentary highlighted that sharp price movement in the remaining weeks can still influence the final outcome.

Why BSE is seen as eligible: the AFMC threshold

Separate commentary cited by Moneycontrol, referencing research firm Quiddity Advisors, explained the technical trigger for a Nifty50 change. For an index change to be triggered, there must be at least one eligible stock whose Average Float Market Capitalisation (AFMC) is greater than 1.5 times the AFMC of the smallest index member.

Quiddity Advisors analyst Janaghan Jeyakumar said BSE currently clears this bar, with its AFMC exceeding 1.5 times that of Wipro, making Wipro the most vulnerable candidate for exclusion under the rule. That assessment aligns with the broader expectation of a single replacement in the 50-stock basket.

Expected passive flows: BSE inflows, Wipro outflows

Axis Capital estimates that if BSE is included, it could see inflows close to $157 million. The brokerage expects index funds could buy around 15.7 million shares of BSE in that scenario. On the other side, Axis Capital estimates Wipro could face outflows of about $125 million, translating into selling of around 114.2 million shares by index funds.

Quiddity Advisors’ flow estimates, as reported, differed on the exact amounts but pointed in the same direction. Assuming a single change, one-way flow for the Nifty50 was estimated at $139 million. If Wipro is removed, passive outflows were estimated at about $106 million.

Market reaction: BSE up, Wipro under pressure

BSE shares rose nearly 4% on May 19 after reports said the exchange could join the benchmark Nifty50 in the September 2026 review. Wipro, meanwhile, has been on a weak run, with reports stating the stock fell 20% over the last six months and 27% since the beginning of the year.

The immediate price reaction highlights how index inclusion probabilities can affect near-term trading, even before the formal announcement. Still, the inclusion and exclusion are not final until the official communication expected in August.

What Axis Capital expects across Nifty Next 50 and Bank Nifty

Beyond the Nifty50, Axis Capital expects broader reshuffling in Nifty Next 50. Based on the data tracked from February 1 to May 15, it expects five constituent changes in the Nifty Next 50 and no changes in Bank Nifty.

In the Nifty Next 50, Axis Capital flagged Polycab India, Hitachi Energy India, IndusInd Bank and ICICI Prudential AMC as possible inclusions. It also identified Indian Hotels Company, REC, Shree Cement, Zydus Lifesciences and Macrotech Developers (Lodha Developers) among likely exclusions, as cited in reports.

Quiddity Advisors’ broader reshuffle list, as reported separately, also included names such as Vodafone Idea and Bharat Heavy Electricals among expected additions in the wider Nifty 100 reshuffling framework, with exits including Macrotech Developers, Shree Cement, Indian Hotels, REC and Zydus Lifesciences.

BSE’s latest earnings snapshot

BSE reported a consolidated net profit of Rs 797 crore for the March quarter of FY26, up 61% from Rs 494 crore in the corresponding quarter last year. Revenue for Q4 FY26 rose 85% year-on-year to Rs 1,564 crore versus Rs 847 crore in the same quarter last year.

While index decisions are rule-based and not discretionary, these results add context to why the market has been closely tracking BSE’s eligibility metrics alongside price performance.

Key facts at a glance

Market impact: what changes for passive funds and liquidity

If BSE is included, index-tracking funds would need to buy the stock to match benchmark weights, which is why inflow estimates run into hundreds of millions of dollars in the reported projections. The reverse applies to Wipro, where index funds may reduce holdings in line with its removal, leading to the outflow estimates cited.

Axis Capital said its flow calculations are based on assumed benchmark fund assets under management of $15 billion. Separately, Quiddity Advisors’ one-way flow estimate of $139 million for a single Nifty50 change points to similar magnitude demand concentrated around the rebalancing window.

Analysis: why the 1.5x AFMC rule is central

The reported discussion around the 1.5x AFMC threshold explains why the possible change is framed as a rules-driven outcome rather than a sentiment call. Quiddity Advisors highlighted that BSE’s AFMC being more than 1.5 times Wipro’s makes Wipro the most vulnerable stock in the index under that criterion.

At the same time, Axis Capital’s note makes clear that current projections rely on data only up to May 15, even though the committee evaluates averages through July 31. That means the probability of a change can shift if there are sharp price moves before the end of the measurement period.

Conclusion

Axis Capital expects BSE to replace Wipro in the Nifty50 in the September 2026 rejig, with an announcement expected in the second half of August and implementation from September 30, 2026. If the move plays out as projected, passive flows could be substantial, with Axis Capital estimating $157 million of inflows for BSE and $125 million of outflows for Wipro. The next key milestone is the end of the eligibility window on July 31, followed by the formal communication expected later in August.