Coal India Q4 FY26 profit up 11%, dividend ₹5.25; stock rises

Stock jumps after Q4 print

Coal India Ltd shares rose sharply in early trade after the PSU miner reported a steady March-quarter performance and announced a final dividend for FY26. The stock was cited at ₹471.85, up 4.3%, and was also reported to have touched ₹473.90 intraday. Another market update put the day’s high at ₹468 on the BSE. The move followed the company’s Q4 FY26 earnings, where profit growth and operating metrics were broadly stable, helped by better realisations and other income.

The rally came even as brokerages stayed split on the near-term outlook, with some pointing to supportive valuations and dividend yield and others highlighting inventory build-up and limited catalysts. Over the past one year, Coal India shares were reported up 18.5%, outperforming the Nifty 50, which was down about 1% in the same period.

Q4 FY26: profit and revenue rise year-on-year

Coal India reported an 11.15% year-on-year rise in consolidated net profit to ₹108.39 billion for the January to March quarter, versus ₹97.52 billion a year ago. Another update on the quarter put consolidated profit after tax at ₹109.08 billion, up 12% year-on-year. Revenue from operations increased about 6% to ₹464.90 billion, supported by better realisations and higher other income.

Profit before tax for the quarter was reported at ₹146.27 billion, up 12% from ₹130.70 billion a year earlier. Total income rose 8% to ₹516.18 billion. One set of results cited EBITDA at ₹179.17 billion with margin expansion to 39% from 36% in the corresponding quarter last year, indicating stronger operating leverage.

Separately, another earnings summary cited EBITDA of ₹126.73 billion and an EBITDA margin of 27.3%. The reporting also noted that revenue was described as inflated versus consensus by one brokerage due to adjustments linked to statutory levies on coal production and sales collected in a principal capacity.

Realisations improve; volumes steady to slightly lower

The quarter’s revenue growth was described as driven mainly by higher realisations while sales volumes were largely unchanged. Average realisation per tonne rose 6% year-on-year to ₹2,290. Total sales volume slipped about 1% to 198.83 million tonnes.

Broker commentary also highlighted mix and pricing trends across channels. E-auction volumes were reported to have risen 28% year-on-year, though still below expectations in one estimate. FSA realisations increased around 6% year-on-year, supported by a better grade mix, while e-auction realisations were reported down about 2% year-on-year.

Dividend: ₹5.25 final, ₹26.75 for FY26

The board recommended a final dividend of ₹5.25 per equity share for FY26, subject to shareholder approval at the ensuing AGM. Market commentary said the final dividend was in line with expectations. With this, total dividend declared for FY26 was reported at ₹26.75 per share.

Brokerages that stayed positive on the stock repeatedly cited dividend yield support, with multiple notes pegging dividend yield at around 6%.

What Jefferies liked: EBITDA beat, valuation support

Jefferies maintained a Buy rating with a target price of ₹500. It cited 8% year-on-year growth in cash EBITDA in the fiscal fourth quarter that beat estimates. Jefferies also highlighted attractive valuation at about 9.3 times FY27 earnings and a dividend yield of around 6%.

On demand and pricing, Jefferies said strong summer demand and weak rainfall could support power demand and volumes in FY27, while higher global coal prices may aid e-auction realisations. The brokerage expects earnings to grow at a 5% CAGR over FY26-28 after a decline in the previous two years.

Cautious takes: HSBC and Morgan Stanley

HSBC maintained a Hold rating with a target price of ₹440. It said the earnings beat was largely driven by higher other income, and warned that inventory levels have risen significantly. HSBC also flagged that elevated inventories at power plants could cap e-auction premiums and pointed to potential cost pressures if diesel prices rise.

Morgan Stanley maintained an Equal-weight rating with a target price of ₹410, implying downside from prevailing levels cited in the reports. It noted the quarterly performance was better than expected, with EBITDA around 6% above its estimates and adjusted EBITDA, excluding OBR, nearly 8% ahead.

More constructive calls: Motilal Oswal, Emkay, and volume expectations

Motilal Oswal maintained a Buy rating with a target price of ₹530, implying about 17% upside as per the report. It also stated that at the prevailing market price, the stock trades at about 5x FY28E EV/EBITDA, and reiterated its valuation approach of 6x FY28E EV/EBITDA for the target price.

Another brokerage note projected Coal India could post a 4% volume CAGR over FY26-28E, with a higher share of e-auction volumes and better premium supporting net sales realisation and margins. It expected revenue CAGR of 5% and EBITDA CAGR of 12% over FY26-28E.

Emkay Global maintained an Add rating with an unchanged target price of ₹475. It said Coal India benefited from strong e-auction realisations in recent quarters, though premiums moderated sharply in Q4 and stayed well below Q3 despite elevated thermal coal prices, partly due to some subsidiaries lowering reserve prices. Emkay said it expects e-auction premiums to sustain at 55% over FY27-28E, and also modelled 6% volume CAGR over FY27-28E.

Global coal prices and domestic inventory: key context

One brokerage noted international thermal coal prices were rangebound at $15 to $115 from January 2025 to February 2026, before rallying about 18% from mid-February. In broker models, global pricing and domestic power demand can influence Coal India’s e-auction realisations.

At the same time, concerns around elevated coal inventory at power plants were raised as a possible headwind for near-term e-auction premiums. HSBC also described the domestic coal market as oversupplied, which it said reduces the likelihood of near-term earnings catalysts, even if dividend yield continues to support valuations.

Key numbers at a glance

Brokerage targets and ratings

Market performance and levels tracked

Ahead of the results, Coal India shares were reported to have closed 0.77% lower at ₹452.50 on the NSE. Post-results, the stock was reported around ₹471.85, up 4.3%, and also cited at an intraday high of ₹473.90. Another update placed the intraday range at a high of ₹470 and a low of ₹455.65.

The company’s market capitalisation was reported at ₹2,892.78 billion. In the last 12 months, the stock’s return was cited at 18.5% in one report, while another data point said the stock was up 15.10% over 12 months and 13.41% year-to-date. The 52-week high was reported at ₹476 (March 13, 2026) and the 52-week low at ₹368.65 (August 28, 2025).

What investors may watch next

Near-term debate on the stock is centred on whether e-auction premiums hold up amid higher power-sector inventories, and how costs evolve if diesel prices rise. Brokerages that stayed positive are leaning on valuation comfort, dividend yield, and a gradual rise in e-auction share to support realisations.

The next key milestones flagged in the company’s updates include shareholder approval for the final dividend at the upcoming AGM and subsequent payment timelines, along with how volumes and pricing evolve through the summer demand period.