CRISIL shares rise 2% before Q4 earnings: Estimates

What moved the stock on Thursday

Shares of CRISIL rose as investors positioned ahead of the company’s Jan-Mar (March quarter) earnings announcement scheduled later in the day. The stock gained as much as 2% to an intraday high of ₹4,204.70.

At 1001 IST, CRISIL traded at ₹4,132.10 on the NSE, up 0.3% from Wednesday’s close. The move came amid a broader positive tone in domestic equities in early trade, with risk sentiment supported by easing volatility.

Key trading levels reported during the session

The day’s action was defined by a quick rise to the session high, followed by a pullback from peak levels. While the stock remained in the green, it was not at the intraday high at the time of the mid-morning update.

The price levels in the report put the stock well above its recent 52-week low, but still far below the peak seen last year.

YES Securities estimates for CRISIL’s March quarter

YES Securities (India) Ltd. projected a year-on-year improvement in profit and operating earnings for the March quarter. The brokerage estimated consolidated net profit at ₹177 crore.

In the year-ago quarter, CRISIL posted a net profit of ₹160 crore, implying an improvement based on the estimate cited.

On the operating side, YES Securities estimated earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) at ₹265 crore, which it said would be up over 14% on year.

Revenue forecast: growth on year, decline on quarter

The brokerage expects revenue to grow nearly 13% year-on-year and fall over 15% quarter-on-quarter to ₹916 crore in the March quarter.

This combination suggests the firm expects CRISIL to deliver higher year-on-year performance, while seeing sequential pressure compared with the preceding quarter.

Why bond issuance trends matter for CRISIL

YES Securities flagged bond market conditions as a key factor for CRISIL’s domestic ratings business. It said lower bond issuances in the March quarter could moderate revenue growth, particularly for CRISIL.

The report added that CRISIL has a higher revenue share from bond ratings, which can make it more sensitive to issuance cycles than peers with different business mixes.

Stock performance context: low rebound, high still distant

CRISIL’s share price has rebounded 14% from its 52-week low of ₹3,689, which was hit two weeks ago. The stock touched around ₹4,204.60 levels on Thursday.

Despite the rebound, the stock remains down 34% from its 52-week high of ₹6,329.95, hit in July 2025. Over a longer window, the stock is up 125% over the last five years, according to the performance snapshot provided.

FY25 financial highlights cited in the material

The broader financial context shared alongside the market update pointed to steady growth in the last reported full year. Consolidated revenue from operations for FY25 was ₹3,649.01 crore, up 11.9% year-on-year.

Net profit for FY25 stood at ₹766.01 crore, up 12% from ₹684.07 crore in FY24. The same highlights also noted that Q4 FY25 consolidated revenue was ₹1,081.57 crore, up 18.5% year-on-year, while Q4 FY25 PAT was ₹241.50 crore, up 7.5%.

The FY25 basic and diluted EPS was stated at ₹104.75, compared with ₹93.55 in FY24, and profit before tax increased 12.4% to ₹1,041 crore.

Snapshot table: estimates and reported figures (₹ crore)

Stock levels table: where CRISIL stands

Market impact: what investors are reacting to

The immediate trigger for the move was the approaching earnings announcement, with investors weighing expectations of improved profitability against potentially softer sequential revenue. The brokerage view highlighted a key sensitivity for CRISIL: domestic ratings revenue linked to bond issuance activity.

Separately, the broader market mood was constructive in early trade, and lower volatility readings suggested investors were more comfortable taking risk, which can support buying in quality, earnings-linked names ahead of results.

Analysis: the key signals to watch in the results

The estimates point to a quarter where profitability (net profit and EBITDA) is expected to improve year-on-year, even as revenue is projected to decline sequentially. For investors, that combination typically raises two practical questions: whether margins held up despite softer top-line momentum, and whether the weakness is a one-quarter issuance effect or a more persistent slowdown.

The other key element is business mix. Since the brokerage notes CRISIL’s higher revenue share from bond ratings, commentary on issuance pipelines and client activity in domestic ratings could shape near-term expectations more than headline numbers alone.

Conclusion

CRISIL shares rose up to 2% ahead of its March-quarter earnings, with YES Securities projecting net profit of ₹177 crore and revenue of ₹916 crore, while noting bond-issuance related risks. Investors will track the company’s reported numbers and management commentary later in the day for clarity on sequential revenue pressure and ratings demand conditions.