Crude oil nears $100 in 2026 as Hormuz shuts again

A renewed shipping halt puts geopolitics back in charge

Crude oil markets swung sharply as disruption returned to the Strait of Hormuz and confidence in a fragile US-Iran ceasefire weakened. Traders pushed prices back toward the $100-per-barrel level, reversing the prior session’s dip to around $10. The move underlined how quickly the market is repricing supply risk as headlines change. With Hormuz among the world’s most critical oil chokepoints, even temporary stoppages can tighten near-term expectations and lift freight and insurance costs. For large importers, the immediate issue is not only the price of crude but also the volatility around supply logistics. India, which imports the bulk of its crude requirements, is one of the most exposed to such swings.

Prices jump as supply concerns resurface

On Thursday, Brent crude rose 2.48% to $17.10 per barrel. US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) climbed 3.43% to $17.65. The gains were described as a sharp reversal from the previous session, when prices had slipped to around $10. The trigger was renewed concern that supply flows could be constrained again due to disruptions around Hormuz. The price action signalled that risk premiums had returned after a brief period of calm. It also showed that the market is responding less to near-term fundamentals and more to real-time geopolitical signals.

Strait of Hormuz halts again as vessels turn back

Vessel movement through the Strait of Hormuz has been halted again, according to the shipping update in the article. Tankers that had begun exiting the region were reported to be turning back. Movement had briefly resumed after the ceasefire announcement, but the situation deteriorated rapidly. Shipping data cited in the report said that over 1,000 vessels, including nearly 200 loaded tankers, remain in the region. Even under normal transit conditions, clearing such a backlog could take weeks. Any stop-start restrictions compound delays and tighten global supply expectations, particularly when buyers and refiners need predictable delivery schedules.

The ceasefire premium fades, then returns

The ceasefire that had briefly calmed markets was described as showing signs of strain, with renewed escalation in West Asia raising concerns over its durability. As doubts increased, a geopolitical risk premium returned to crude, reversing the optimism that had driven prices lower a day earlier. This pattern has become familiar in conflict-led markets: a headline-driven relaxation of risk followed by abrupt repricing when navigation or enforcement looks uncertain. The report cautioned that with the situation still evolving, oil markets are likely to remain highly volatile. It added that if disruptions persist or the ceasefire weakens further, crude could move closer to, or even breach, the $100 mark again.

What the early-April spike showed

Earlier in the month, prices had already demonstrated how quickly risk can translate into triple-digit crude. On Monday, April 6, 2026, WTI surged past $111 per barrel and Brent crossed $110, after fresh threats from US President Donald Trump against Iran’s civilian infrastructure raised fears that Hormuz could remain blocked for longer. On the same date, a set of “Current Oil Prices & India Market Rates” listed WTI crude at $111.10 per barrel (up 2.1% that day) and Brent at $109.85 (up 1.8%). The same list cited Delhi retail prices of petrol at Rs 103.50 per litre, diesel at Rs 90.03 per litre, and a domestic LPG cylinder (14.2 kg) at Rs 912.50.

Why Hormuz matters: scale and bottlenecks

The Strait of Hormuz is repeatedly described as handling a large share of global energy trade, including around one-fifth of global seaborne oil trade. One section cited approximately 21% of global oil trade flowing through the route, while another referenced around 20 million barrels per day (mbpd) of oil flows. India’s March 2026 Monthly Economic Review, quoted in the material, said ship transits had fallen to about one vessel a week from 200-300 earlier, choking hydrocarbon movement and raising energy and logistics costs. The same review described a “simultaneous double squeeze” of crude not coming in and products not going out, with risks to growth skewed to the downside. Beyond oil, the route also carries significant volumes of LNG and fertilisers, with about one-third of global seaborne fertiliser trade passing through, adding another channel of cost pressure.

India’s macro risk: import bill, inflation, rupee

For India, the rebound in crude was flagged as a key concern because higher prices can fuel inflation, pressure currencies, and squeeze corporate margins. One estimate in the material said that for India, the world’s third-largest oil importer importing over 85% of its crude requirements, every $10 rise in crude costs approximately $15-16 billion extra annually. Another section said India imports 88% of its crude oil needs and any rise swells the import bill and fuel inflation. HSBC was cited as estimating India’s inflation could average around 5% if crude stays near $100, and that at $110+ this target may be breached, complicating the RBI’s stance. The same list of impacts said the current account deficit could widen to 2.5-3% of GDP from a previous estimate of 1.8%, and noted rupee pressure with the rupee sliding to Rs 93/$.

Pump prices, OMC losses, and LPG vulnerability

When crude rises but retail fuel prices are held steady, oil marketing companies (OMCs) absorb the gap, creating “marketing losses” that were stated as Rs 8-12 per litre of petrol sold. The material also highlighted LPG as a particular vulnerability in a prolonged disruption scenario. One analyst note stated that India’s vulnerability comes from LPG, with virtually all of India’s LPG and Natural Gas Liquids imports coming from the Middle East. A separate report excerpt also said LPG is expected to be the most vulnerable among petroleum products if the disruption persists. These channels matter because policy decisions on retail pricing and subsidies can shift financial stress from consumers to OMC balance sheets.

What reports and forecasts are signalling

Multiple research notes in the provided text framed the upper tail risk if navigation is not restored. Nuvama was cited as saying crude could surge as high as USD 150 per barrel if Hormuz remains closed for four to eight weeks, with prices potentially moving into a USD 110-150 range in that window. Wood Mackenzie was cited as warning oil prices could exceed USD 100 per barrel if tanker traffic is not swiftly restored, noting the closure threatens to disrupt 15% of global oil supply and 20% of global LNG supply. Goldman Sachs was referenced as warning of possible $150/bbl peaks if closure persists, and also linked inventory drawdowns to a potential move toward $100 if low flows continue. Barclays was cited as arguing that the path of least resistance remains higher until there is a clear inflection point in the conflict, while warning that a disruption lasting a month or more could reprice 2026 Brent to $100.

Key numbers at a glance

Conclusion: volatility remains the base case

The latest halt in vessel movement through Hormuz and the strain on the US-Iran ceasefire pushed crude back toward $100 and reintroduced sharp headline risk to energy markets. With more than 1,000 vessels still in the region and weeks potentially needed to clear backlogs even under normal conditions, logistics remain a key variable alongside price. For India, the immediate focus is the inflation and currency channel, and the fiscal and corporate impact if retail fuel pricing stays capped while crude rises. The situation remains fluid, and the next decisive market inputs will be confirmation of sustained navigation through Hormuz and clearer signals on whether the ceasefire holds.