Electricity trading India: IEX volumes up as prices fall

Electricity trading in India is back in focus in 2026, driven by two parallel storylines discussed widely on social media - record volumes on Indian Energy Exchange (IEX) and early peer-to-peer (P2P) pilots under the India Energy Stack. The common thread is liquidity: more supply on exchange markets has coincided with lower market clearing prices, while P2P pilots are attempting to formalise retail-level transactions within the distribution network. These developments are being read as signals of a gradual shift away from an electricity system dominated by long-term arrangements toward more market-linked procurement. The context also includes a policy debate captured in discussions around the Draft National Electricity Policy 2026, which signals greater reliance on electricity market mechanisms.

Why electricity trading is trending in 2026

The most shared datapoints this year have been around volumes and price signals on power exchanges. In February 2026, IEX reported a total traded electricity volume of 12,550 million units (MU), up 30.4% year-on-year. The exchange also reported its highest daily average traded volume at 448 MU for that month. At the same time, the Day-Ahead Market (DAM) and Real-Time Market (RTM) prices were lower than last year, attributed to improved supply liquidity. Social discussions have highlighted what this combination means for buyers - more energy available at lower exchange prices. On the supply side, government-reported consumption growth remained modest in some months, which adds to the narrative that supply conditions were supportive. The takeaway from the trending posts is not a single event, but a pattern: volumes rising while market prices soften.

IEX FY26 milestone volumes and what they indicate

IEX said it achieved its highest-ever electricity traded volume of 141 billion units (BU) in FY26, marking 17% year-on-year growth. It also recorded its highest-ever yearly trade of Renewable Energy Certificates (RECs), with 187.20 lakh RECs traded, up 5% year-on-year. In Q4 FY26, the exchange reported its highest-ever quarterly electricity traded volume of 39.4 BU, up 24.3% year-on-year. March 2026 stood out as a peak month, with the exchange reporting a highest-ever monthly traded volume of 13.90 BU, up 23.5% year-on-year. The context shared alongside these numbers points to power demand growth of 1.1% year-on-year in FY26. That demand was supported by enhanced wind, hydro, and solar generation, alongside sustained coal-based generation, which contributed to higher supply liquidity on the platform. For market observers, these figures are being used as a proxy for the expanding role of exchanges in day-to-day procurement decisions.

February 2026: growth with lower DAM and RTM prices

The February 2026 update has circulated widely because it paired strong volume growth with clearly stated price declines. The DAM market clearing price (MCP) was reported at ₹3.58 per unit, down 18.3% year-on-year. The RTM price averaged ₹3.59 per unit, down 18.7% year-on-year. Segment-wise, RTM posted the strongest growth, with volumes rising to 4,379 MU from 2,887 MU a year earlier, up 51.7% year-on-year. The Day-Ahead Market also saw higher traded volumes, with a reported 22.7% rise year-on-year in the same update. The Day-Ahead Contingency and Term-Ahead Market (TAM) recorded 775 MU, down 4.7% year-on-year. The posts linking these datapoints emphasised that lower exchange prices can allow distribution companies (DISCOMs) and commercial and industrial (C&I) users to replace higher-cost power purchases with exchange procurement.

January 2026: record month and the liquidity narrative

January 2026 was described as IEX’s highest-ever monthly traded volume at the time, with 13,050 MU, up 19.6% year-on-year. Government data cited in the same context put overall energy consumption at 142.74 BU, up 3.8% year-on-year. Market prices were again described as lower year-on-year, tied to higher availability from hydro, wind, and solar, along with sustained coal-based generation. The DAM MCP averaged ₹3.86 per unit in January 2026, down 12.9% year-on-year. RTM averaged ₹3.72 per unit, down 15.9% year-on-year. RTM volumes rose to 4,638 MU from 3,036 MU, up 52.8% year-on-year. The Day-Ahead Market traded 6,182 MU versus 6,015 MU, up 2.8% year-on-year. These figures have been used in discussions to argue that RTM is becoming a more prominent procurement window, at least in the periods cited.

Green power and RECs: what the trading data shows

The green segments and the REC market have also featured prominently in 2026 conversations because they provide a separate lens on renewable procurement. In February 2026, the Green Day-Ahead and Green Term-Ahead segments together traded 808 MU, up 46.3% year-on-year. The weighted average price in the Green Day-Ahead Market was ₹3.43 per unit, down 25.3% year-on-year. In the REC segment, 18.86 lakh RECs were traded in February 2026 at clearing prices of ₹333 per REC and ₹337 per REC (sessions held on 11 February and 25 February). In March 2026, IEX reported 28.94 lakh RECs traded, up 119.9% year-on-year, at a clearing price of ₹340 per REC. January 2026 recorded 23.91 lakh RECs traded, with clearing prices of ₹339 per REC and ₹333 per REC, and REC traded volumes were noted as down 37.1% year-on-year. The combination of these datapoints has driven debate on how certificate liquidity and clearing prices are evolving across months. The next REC trading sessions were scheduled for 11 March 2026 and 25 March 2026, as per the February update.

Key 2026 datapoints at a glance

Below is a consolidated view of the most-circulated metrics from the shared updates, focusing on volumes, prices, and REC activity where disclosed. The intention is to keep the numbers in one place, since social threads often quote them in isolation. Volumes are reported in MU for monthly figures and BU for quarterly and annual figures, matching the original references. Prices are shown only where explicitly stated in the shared context. REC figures are in lakh, again following the published updates. This table does not infer or calculate missing values. It only repeats what has been cited.

P2P energy trading pilots under the India Energy Stack

Alongside exchange data, P2P trading pilots have become a separate trend because they suggest a consumer-facing market layer could develop over time. A key milestone cited was a live demonstration of a P2P decentralised energy transaction under the India Energy Stack (IES) framework, showcased by REC Limited at the India AI Impact Summit in February 2026. The Delhi Electricity Regulatory Commission (DERC) approved intra-discom, intra-state, and inter-state (Delhi to UP) P2P trading for a six-month pilot. Transaction charges were set at ₹0.42 per kWh, shared equally between buyer and seller, and wheeling and open access charges within Delhi were waived for the pilot. The 20% Capacity Utilization Factor cap on solar energy transactions was removed, allowing prosumers to sell as much solar energy as they generate in the pilot design shared. The Uttar Pradesh Electricity Regulatory Commission (UPERC) approved the interstate P2P renewable energy trading pilot filed by PVVNL under the IES framework, including approval for blockchain-based settlement and a waiver of Cross Subsidy Surcharge during the pilot. The Ministry of Power also released IES Version 0.3, formalising digital identities for energy assets, consent-based data sharing, open APIs, and shared registries, with the full IES project scheduled for completion by July 2026.

What has to work for P2P to scale beyond pilots

The most grounded discussions around P2P have focused on constraints rather than timelines. DISCOMs remain central because electricity continues to flow through their network, and transactions are verified by them, meaning P2P works alongside the DISCOM rather than replacing it. The pilots referenced participation from BSES Rajdhani (BRPL), Tata Power Delhi Distribution (TPDDL), and PVVNL, together serving about 1.25 crore consumers. Regulatory harmonisation is highlighted as a challenge because separate state orders govern different elements, while interstate issues such as transmission charges fall under CERC jurisdiction. Another recurring point is smart metering, because accurate, near real-time measurement and settlement are fundamental to any scaled P2P market. The context notes that India’s smart meter rollout is accelerating but remains far from universal, limiting expansion beyond pilot zones. The DERC order also clarified that P2P energy transactions will count towards renewable purchase obligation compliance for distribution licensees where the consumer is not an obligated entity, which adds accounting clarity but does not remove operational complexity. Separately, earlier pilots in Uttar Pradesh were cited as showing feasibility and P2P buy prices about 43% lower than the retail tariff, though these were still pilots rather than permanent market structures. The near-term question being posed is settlement cleanliness through billing systems while maintaining network charge recovery and grid discipline.

Where exchanges and P2P fit in a shifting policy debate

Social posts have also linked these market developments to a broader policy direction captured in references to the Draft National Electricity Policy 2026. The framing shared is that India wants to reduce expensive long-term coal power contracts, push electricity market mechanisms, and create space for renewables like solar and wind. In that context, the rise in exchange liquidity and the experimentation with P2P settlement architectures are being read as complementary, not competing, pathways. Exchanges already provide automated trading for physical delivery of electricity and renewable products, and IEX positions itself as a nationwide platform with an ecosystem of over 8,100 stakeholders across 28 states and 8 union territories. P2P pilots, in contrast, are trying to operationalise retail-level transactions while staying embedded within the licensed distribution framework. For investors and sector watchers, the key distinction is maturity: exchange markets are already producing large, repeatable volumes, while P2P remains time-bound, regulator-led experimentation. Still, both threads point to the same direction of travel - more granular price discovery and more formal market infrastructure. What changes next will likely depend on post-pilot regulatory decisions, the pace of smart meter deployment, and how consistently interstate settlement rules can be applied. For now, the only firm conclusion supported by the 2026 updates is that electricity trading activity is expanding, and market design experimentation is accelerating in parallel.