Jet fuel shortage: EU refinery plan due April 2026

What is driving Europe’s jet fuel alarm

European Union officials are drafting plans to address a looming jet fuel supply crunch and to maximise refinery output, according to officials cited by Reuters. European airlines have warned that shortages could emerge within weeks as the Iran war disrupts flows of oil products into the region. The immediate trigger has been the blocking and closure of the Strait of Hormuz to fuel shipments, a critical chokepoint for refined products. Jet fuel prices have surged since the disruption, and airlines are warning of price hikes, flight cancellations, and grounded planes if the war does not end soon. The risks are heightened because the disruption is arriving just ahead of peak summer travel demand in Europe.

Europe’s import dependence is highest for jet fuel

Europe is more dependent on jet fuel imports than for any other transport fuel, and officials and industry data highlight a concentrated exposure. Around 75% of Europe’s jet fuel imports come from the Middle East. IEA data shows the OECD Europe region, which includes EU countries as well as Britain and Norway, imports more than 30% of its jet fuel, with most volumes going through the strait. The strait normally accounts for around 40% of the region’s jet fuel imports, and no further cargoes bound for Europe have passed through it since the closure. The last such cargoes discharged the previous week, leaving supply chains reliant on alternative routes and sources.

EU plan: map refining capacity and keep plants running

From next month, the European Commission plans to introduce EU-wide mapping of refining capacity for oil products and measures “to ensure that existing refining capacity is fully utilised and maintained,” according to a draft proposal seen by Reuters. Officials familiar with the proposals also said the EU is working on measures that specifically target jet fuel supply, although these steps were still being developed. The Commission declined to comment on the draft plans. The proposal package is due to be published on April 22.

Airlines warn of disruption within weeks

Airlines and airports have flagged a tightening timeline. Some airports have warned of shortages within three weeks if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed to fuel shipments. The International Energy Agency has forecast jet fuel shortages by June if Europe can replace only half of the supplies it normally receives from the Middle East. Analysts also pointed to operational constraints: fuel handling consortia feeding airports do not always keep long-term stocks, and many airports do not hold large inventories on site. Lufthansa CTO Grazia Vittadini told Reuters that suppliers have shortened their forecasting windows and are “no longer keen” to provide an outlook beyond one month.

Refining constraints limit Europe’s ability to self-supply

Europe’s ability to offset lost imports with higher domestic production is limited by years of declining refining capacity. As domestic oil production has shrunk and governments have pushed cleaner energy sources, Europe’s refining capacity has fallen in recent years. The IEA said many European refiners are already operating at maximum capacity for jet fuel production. Even if refineries run hard, jet fuel is only one output among several competing products, and any incremental gains can be constrained by crude availability, plant configuration, and maintenance schedules.

Airspace closures add a second layer of pressure

The aviation sector is also dealing with airspace closures since the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran began on February 28. The European Union Aviation Safety Agency (EASA) has banned European airlines from operating in the airspace of several Gulf countries, including the UAE and Qatar, until April 24. Airlines have asked for clarity that conflict-related airspace closures and operational effects will be treated as justified non-use of airport slots under existing rules. While airspace restrictions do not directly reduce jet fuel supply, they can disrupt routes and planning, complicating operational decisions during a fuel shock.

Industry asks EU for emergency measures

Industry group Airlines for Europe (A4E) has urged Brussels to introduce crisis response measures, including EU-level monitoring of jet fuel supplies, a temporary suspension of the EU’s carbon market for aviation, and the scrapping of certain aviation taxes. A4E also urged the EU to consider joint purchasing of kerosene, a form of jet fuel. The EU used joint natural gas buying after Russia reduced gas deliveries to Europe in 2022, but that model has not been applied to oil or kerosene so far. Airlines also want the EU to amend its legal requirement for 90 days of emergency oil reserves because the current framework does not include a specific requirement on jet fuel, even though countries can count jet fuel and other products toward their stockholding totals.

What the latest IEA and market indicators show

IEA analysis included in the material points to a tight inventory picture heading into summer. OECD Europe jet fuel inventories typically fall from 37-38 days of forward demand at the start of the year to around 30 days by mid-year. Since 2020, stocks have not averaged below 29 days of cover, but the IEA assumes around 20% of inventories act as an operational cushion that cannot be readily drawn down. On that basis, the agency said physical shortages could emerge if inventory cover falls below 23 days. The IEA also said global jet fuel output is expected to fall by around 500,000 barrels per day in the second quarter, as Middle Eastern supply losses combine with refinery run cuts elsewhere due to tighter crude availability.

Imports from the US and Africa help, but may not close the gap

Europe has increased purchases from the U.S. to offset Middle Eastern losses, but officials and analysts said replacements may still fall short. U.S. jet fuel exports reached a record 442,000 barrels per day in the week to April 3, according to the U.S. EIA. Kpler data showed jet fuel shipments from the U.S. to Europe totalled 366,000 tonnes in March, and imports were set to exceed 450,000 tonnes in April, nearly double the previous monthly record based on preliminary data. Even so, the IEA said the additional volumes account for just over 50% of lost Middle Eastern supply at most.

Key numbers at a glance

Market and operational impact: what is already visible

Airlines are already managing higher costs and uncertainty, according to the statements in the material. Lufthansa executives and officials described tightening supplier visibility, and industry groups warned about bottlenecks at key hubs. Heathrow said the war’s impacts had not yet hit its operations but it was monitoring the situation, while ADP, owner of Paris Charles de Gaulle, did not respond to a request for comment. The IEA and ACI Europe warned that shortages could translate into flight cancellations and demand destruction if inventory cover falls too far.

What to watch next

The European Commission’s package is due on April 22, and it is expected to include measures aimed at mitigating the broader fallout of the Iran war in energy markets. Separately, U.S. President Donald Trump said in comments aired on Wednesday that the war with Iran could end soon, while U.S. forces imposing a blockade turned back vessels leaving Iranian ports. For airlines and airports, the next key markers are whether fuel cargo flows resume through the Strait of Hormuz, whether EU monitoring and refinery utilisation measures are implemented quickly, and whether any jet fuel-specific steps such as coordinated procurement move from proposal to execution.