Gift Nifty signals flat start as US-Iran deal awaited

Gift Nifty sets a cautious tone for the open

Gift Nifty was seen around the 23,919 level, a premium of nearly 3 points to the Nifty futures’ previous close, pointing to a largely flat start for Indian equities. In another pre-open snapshot, Gift Nifty traded around 24,068, a premium of nearly 5 points, again indicating a flat opening bias. But not all signals were steady. Gift Nifty was also quoted around 23,891, at a discount of nearly 87 points, suggesting a negative start on a different session as risk appetite turned defensive.

The shifting pre-open signals underline how closely traders are tracking headlines linked to West Asia. Market direction in these updates was framed around the same set of variables: global cues, crude oil movement, and clarity around the US-Iran peace deal.

Global cues: mixed Asia, record highs in the US

Across the different sessions referenced, Asian markets were described as mixed on some days and higher on others, reflecting uneven risk sentiment. US equities, however, often held up better. One update noted the Dow Jones finishing at a record-high close, while another said the S&P 500 and Nasdaq hit record closing highs.

There was also a session where Wall Street ended sharply higher, with all three major indices logging their biggest daily percentage gains since April 8. Semiconductor-led strength was highlighted in a separate update, where US markets ended mixed but the S&P 500 and Nasdaq still closed at record highs.

India’s recent swings: rallies and sell-offs around geopolitics

Indian benchmarks moved sharply across the referenced sessions as geopolitical risk oscillated. In one session, the Sensex jumped 736.38 points, or 0.97%, to close at 76,264.33, while the Nifty 50 rose 231.00 points, or 0.98%, to 23,853.90 after a “significant de-escalation” in tensions tied to the US-Iran peace deal.

But risk-off moves were equally visible. One update reported the Sensex falling 719.08 points, or 0.97%, to 73,524.26, with the Nifty 50 down 243.70 points, or 1.04%, to 23,123.00 amid renewed Middle East tensions, a spike in crude prices, and fears of a US interest rate hike.

Losses also extended in another session described as the fourth straight day of decline, with the Sensex down 508.40 points, or 0.68%, at 74,267.34 and the Nifty 50 lower by 165.15 points, or 0.70%, to 23,382.60.

US-Iran peace deal: what is known from official comments

The story thread across these updates was dominated by the peace deal narrative. US Vice President JD Vance told Fox News that President Donald Trump may decide to release Washington’s agreement with Tehran before Friday. The deal was said to have been electronically signed by leaders in the US and Iran, with an in-person signing expected on Friday.

Trump was also reported as saying Iran has agreed to “never have a nuclear weapon” as part of the peace deal. In a separate update, Trump said the US and Iran could sign a peace deal as soon as the weekend that would reopen the Strait of Hormuz to shipping, while Iran countered that it had not made a final decision.

Another update added uncertainty, saying Tehran reportedly suspended all peace talks in protest against Israel’s actions in Lebanon and a military operation call to target southern quarters of Beirut.

Crude oil, currencies, and gold: risk gauges investors watched

Oil prices were repeatedly flagged as a direct market driver. One session noted Brent crude futures up 0.14% at $14.38 a barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate gained 0.12% to $11.41. In another update, crude fell as the US touted progress toward a peace deal, with Brent down 0.54% to $19.04 and WTI down 0.72% to $13.21.

Currencies and gold were also closely tracked. The dollar index was cited at 100.03 in one update, near a two-month high of 100.21, and at 99.087 in another. Gold prices rose in one session, supported by a weaker dollar amid progress signals on US-Iran talks.

Sector and stock moves: breadth improved in the rebound

A strong risk-on session described a broad-based rally where the Nifty Midcap and Smallcap indices rose nearly 2% each. The biggest Nifty gainers listed were Interglobe Aviation, Trent, Tata Motors Passenger Vehicles, Shriram Finance, and Asian Paints. The losers listed were ONGC, L&T, Reliance Industries, Power Grid Corp, and NTPC.

Sector performance in that update showed all sectoral indices ending in the green except power, FMCG, and energy. Auto, media, private bank, PSU bank, realty, metal, and pharma were noted as up 1-2%.

Domestic macro cues: growth, trade, and fiscal deficit

Beyond geopolitics, the updates also carried macro datapoints that can influence rate and risk expectations. The World Bank said India will remain the world’s fastest-growing major economy, expanding 6.6% in fiscal year 2026-27, moderating from 7.7% in the previous year.

On trade, India’s trade deficit was reported to have narrowed to a nine-month low of $10.67 billion in March due to lower imports. Exports were said to have posted the steepest fall in five months, declining 7.44% in March to $18.92 billion.

On fiscal metrics, India’s fiscal deficit was reported at ₹3.62 lakh crore in April, nearly doubling from a year earlier.

What market participants said about near-term positioning

Siddhartha Khemka, Head of Research, Wealth Management at Motilal Oswal Financial Services, said markets remain resilient despite elevated global uncertainty due to strong domestic liquidity and selective buying, while warning that persistent West Asia tensions, inflationary concerns, and mixed US-Iran signals could keep sentiment cautious and volatility elevated.

In another update, Khemka said Indian equities are expected to sustain an upward bias as long as the peace-talk narrative holds and crude stays in check, while noting FII flows and geopolitical developments will be closely watched.

Separate market notes also cited Vikram Kasat of PL Capital saying markets may stay in a narrow range in the near term, and Ajit Mishra of Religare Broking advising a hedged approach and focus on fundamentally strong stocks, especially those with strong earnings.

Key figures recap

Bottom line: peace-deal clarity and crude remain the swing factors

Across the updates, the near-term setup for Indian equities repeatedly came back to two variables: clarity on the US-Iran peace deal process and the direction of crude oil. Gift Nifty indications ranged from flat to gap-up to negative, matching the rapid shifts in global risk sentiment.

Investors now appear to be weighing official updates on the agreement timeline, including the expected in-person signing on Friday mentioned in the reports, alongside movements in oil, the dollar, and global equities that have shown both record highs and mixed closes.