HDFC Bank Q4FY26 Preview: Profit up 7-9% on Apr 18

What the March-quarter preview is pointing to

HDFC Bank is expected to report a steady set of numbers for the March quarter (Q4FY26), with modest growth in profit and net interest income (NII), stable asset quality, and improving traction in both loans and deposits, based on brokerage estimates cited in the provided text. Analysts broadly see mid-single digit NII growth and high-single digit profit expansion. The focus, however, is not limited to headline earnings. Deposit mobilisation and the margin trajectory are expected to remain key monitorables.

Board meeting date and what will be announced

HDFC Bank said its Board of Directors will meet on Saturday, April 18, 2026, to consider and approve the audited standalone financial results for the quarter and year ended March 31, 2026. The timing matters because the quarter has been accompanied by heightened governance scrutiny following the resignation of its part-time chairman. As a result, commentary around governance, leadership continuity, and operational priorities is expected to be watched closely alongside financial metrics.

Nomura estimates: profit seen at ₹18,900 crore

Nomura projected Q4FY26 net profit at ₹18,900 crore, implying 7% year-on-year (YoY) growth and a marginal 1% quarter-on-quarter (QoQ) rise. The brokerage expected NII at ₹33,400 crore, up 4% YoY and 2% sequentially. On asset quality, Nomura expected conditions to remain benign, with credit costs inching up 4 basis points QoQ. It flagged margins, loan and deposit growth, and commentary on developments after the chairman exit as key watchpoints.

Motilal Oswal estimates: profit seen at ₹19,200 crore

Motilal Oswal Financial Services (MOFSL) expected HDFC Bank to post a Q4FY26 net profit of ₹19,200 crore, up 9% YoY and 2.9% QoQ. It estimated NII at ₹33,660 crore, reflecting about 5% YoY growth and 3.2% QoQ growth. MOFSL also expected asset quality to remain stable, with gross NPA (GNPA) and net NPA (NNPA) steady at around 1.2% and 0.4%, respectively.

Bloomberg estimates: NII up 4.9%, NIM seen lower

Bloomberg estimates in the provided text suggested NII may rise 4.9% YoY to ₹33,665.77 crore from ₹32,070 crore. Profit was seen 8% higher at ₹19,013 crore versus ₹17,616 crore. Provisions were expected to increase 7.9% to ₹3,448.35 crore from ₹3,193.05 crore. Net interest margin (NIM) was seen moderating to 3.39% from 3.46%, reflecting policy rate transmission effects highlighted in the preview.

Business update: advances and deposits stayed strong

For the March 2026 quarter, HDFC Bank reported total advances of ₹2,960,000 crore, a 12% YoY rise, versus ₹2,643,000 crore in the previous year. Total deposits increased 14.4% YoY to ₹3,105,000 crore. The deposit growth outpacing credit growth was described as a positive signal for liquidity and balance sheet strength in the supplied text. This becomes important in a competitive environment where deposit mobilisation has become central to protecting margins.

Deposit mix: CASA and time deposits both expanded

Within deposits, CASA stood at ₹1,060,000 crore, up 12.3% YoY. Time deposits were ₹2,045,000 crore, up 15.5% YoY. The faster growth in time deposits versus CASA indicates the bank continued to add liabilities across segments, while also reflecting the broader competition for deposits. Market participants have been tracking whether the bank can sustain deposit momentum after the merger altered its balance sheet mix.

Governance trigger: chairman resignation and RBI response

Part-time chairman Atanu Chakraborty resigned mid-term, with the resignation formally received by the bank on March 18, 2026, and taking immediate effect. The text described this as the first mid-term resignation of a part-time chairman in the bank’s history. In his resignation letter, Chakraborty cited ethical concerns, stating that “certain happenings and practices within the bank… are not in congruence with my personal values and ethics.”

After the resignation became public, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) said there were “no material issues on record” regarding the bank’s conduct or governance. The RBI also said the bank remained well-capitalised and financially sound, backed by a professional board and competent management. It approved Keki Mistry as interim part-time chairman for three months starting March 19, 2026.

Market reaction and stock context

The supplied text said the bank’s stock fell 12% over three days after the exit, and the episode was linked in reports to a $16 billion market-cap erosion. It also said the stock hit a 52-week low of ₹772 on March 19, 2026. Separately, another excerpt in the provided material put the current market price at ₹731, down from a 52-week high of ₹1,950, and cited a 1-year return of -38%. The combination of earnings season and governance headlines has kept sentiment sensitive to updates from the board and management.

Post-merger backdrop: margins and balance sheet mix

The governance development lands in the post-merger phase following the merger of HDFC Ltd with HDFC Bank, effective July 1, 2023. The provided text said the merger created a larger institution with a balance sheet exceeding ₹1,800,000 crore and added assets of ₹723,000 crore. It also linked some current pressures to merger mechanics, noting the bank’s lending margin dipped to 3.35% from 4.1% before the merger, and the loan-to-deposit ratio rose to around 110% post-merger from 86% to 87% earlier.

Leadership continuity is also in focus. CEO Sashidhar Jagdishan’s term ends in October 2026 unless extended, while interim chairman Keki Mistry said he was unlikely to continue beyond the three-month period ending in June 2026. The supplied text also reported multiple senior-level exits over the past two years and said Executive Director Bhavesh Zaveri is expected to exit in April 2026.

Key numbers at a glance

Analysis: what matters most as results approach

Across brokerages, the core operating picture is steady: NII growth is expected in the mid-single digits, profits in the high-single digits, and asset quality broadly stable. But the bank’s near-term narrative has widened beyond earnings because governance signals can quickly affect funding confidence, investor positioning, and valuation for a systemically important lender. That is why margin commentary, deposit traction, and clarity on leadership processes are expected to carry outsized importance in Q4 disclosures.

Conclusion

HDFC Bank’s Q4FY26 preview points to a steady quarter, with brokerages estimating profit growth of about 7% to 9% YoY and NII growth of roughly 4% to 5%. At the same time, the chairman resignation and the RBI’s interim appointment have kept governance and leadership continuity at the centre of market attention. With results scheduled for April 18, 2026, investors are likely to track both the audited numbers and any board-level updates on succession, oversight, and post-merger priorities.