Hindalco Q4 FY26 Preview: Brokerages' EBITDA Estimates

Why Hindalco’s Q4 FY26 print matters

Hindalco Industries is headed into its Q4 FY26 results season in May 2026 with attention split between two moving parts: Novelis performance and London Metal Exchange (LME) aluminium prices. Brokerages flag early signs of recovery in 2026 for these drivers, but the expected quarter still reflects operational and external factors that can shift consolidated profitability.

Two large brokerages have laid out their expectations for the quarter. Kotak Institutional Equities (KIE) has published segment-level EBITDA estimates for India operations and for Novelis. Motilal Oswal has provided a consolidated view on EBITDA and net profit, while also pointing to the continuing impact of the Oswego fire on Novelis’ earnings.

Kotak’s India EBITDA estimate: higher YoY and QoQ

Kotak Institutional Equities estimates Hindalco’s India EBITDA (standalone plus Utkal) at ₹5,540 crore. The brokerage expects this to be up 3.6% year-on-year and up 7.3% quarter-on-quarter.

The split between aluminium and copper remains important for how investors read the quality of earnings and the sustainability of margins. Kotak’s numbers imply a quarter supported by pricing and commodity-linked tailwinds, even as company-level factors such as hedging can reduce the direct benefit from spot prices.

Aluminium EBITDA: pricing tailwind, hedging a partial offset

Kotak expects Aluminium EBITDA (including Utkal) of ₹4,870 crore, up 2.8% YoY and up 6.6% QoQ. The brokerage attributes the sequential improvement to higher aluminium prices, while noting that the benefit is partly offset by hedged volumes.

This framing suggests investors may focus on the realised pricing outcome versus LME movement. Any difference between headline price trends and reported profitability often comes down to hedging, product mix, and costs. Kotak’s estimate still implies a sequential lift, indicating that the pricing support is visible even after offsets.

Copper EBITDA: stronger commodity prices in focus

For the copper segment, Kotak estimates Copper EBITDA at ₹670 crore, up 9.2% YoY and up 12.7% QoQ. The brokerage links the improvement to stronger commodity prices.

Copper often carries a different earnings cadence compared with aluminium, and quarter-on-quarter shifts can be influenced by both macro pricing and operational variables. Kotak’s estimate points to a quarter where commodity prices help support segment profitability.

Novelis: EBITDA seen down YoY, up sequentially

Kotak expects Novelis to report EBITDA of $103 million. This is projected to be down 14.7% YoY, but up 16% sequentially.

Kotak also estimates EBITDA per tonne at $175, which it says would be down 3.9% YoY and up 10.5% QoQ. The brokerage cites robust packaging demand and mitigation efforts to offset the impact of tariffs and the Oswego issue.

These inputs matter because Novelis is a key consolidated earnings driver. A sequential improvement in EBITDA per tonne typically signals better spreads, product mix, demand, or cost actions, even if year-on-year comparisons remain weak.

Motilal Oswal: EBITDA and profit expected to decline YoY

Motilal Oswal anticipates Hindalco’s EBITDA will fall 2.2% YoY to ₹8,640 crore. It also expects net profit to drop 21% YoY to ₹4,170 crore.

Motilal’s view still highlights strong India operations as a support to overall revenue, citing healthy volumes and favourable LME prices. At the same time, it flags that Novelis’ earnings are expected to remain affected by the Oswego fire.

Key brokerage estimates at a glance

Street ranges: revenue, PAT, margins and dividend expectations

A set of broader estimates referenced alongside the preview suggests a range of outcomes for Q4 FY26. The same preview also lists Q3 FY26 actuals for context.

The same set of notes states that FY26 dividends paid so far total ₹3 per share (interim). The range for the final or additional dividend is presented as an estimate, and not as a company announcement.

Market factors to track: LME prices and Novelis disruptions

The preview links the Q4 FY26 outcome mainly to Novelis performance and LME aluminium prices. For aluminium producers, LME-linked pricing and regional premia can influence realisations, while cost inputs and hedging determine how much of the price move reaches EBITDA.

For Novelis, the discussion is more operational and policy-linked. Kotak references mitigation actions against tariffs and the Oswego issue, while Motilal flags the Oswego fire as a continuing earnings overhang. Together, these factors shape the year-on-year comparison even if sequential numbers improve.

Recent reported performance that investors may use for context

Hindalco has previously reported strong growth in Q4 FY25, which brokerages and investors often use as a reference point for understanding base effects and segment momentum. For Q4 FY25, the company reported consolidated revenue of ₹64,890 crore, up 15.9% to 16% YoY versus ₹55,994 crore.

It also reported consolidated net profit of ₹5,283 crore (also cited as ₹5,284 crore in the same set of notes), up 66% YoY, and consolidated EBITDA of ₹10,296 crore, up 43%. The notes attribute the performance to lower input costs and supportive macroeconomic conditions, with India operations contributing meaningfully.

The same information set adds that India operations’ adjusted EBITDA increased 11% QoQ to ₹5,350 crore in that period, supported by higher aluminium prices, improved value-added product mix, lower cost of production, and higher alumina sales volume, partially offset by lower copper profits.

Conclusion: what to watch when results arrive

Kotak expects a sequentially better quarter for India aluminium and copper EBITDA, while Novelis is projected to improve sequentially but remain weaker year-on-year. Motilal’s estimates point to a year-on-year decline in consolidated EBITDA and net profit, even as it acknowledges support from India operations.

When Hindalco reports Q4 FY26 numbers in May 2026, the focus will likely stay on the realised benefit from aluminium pricing, the strength of India segment EBITDA, and how much the Oswego-related disruption and tariff mitigation efforts show up in Novelis profitability and per-tonne metrics.