Hindustan Copper: Anand Rathi buy call, 45% upside

Why Hindustan Copper is back in focus

Hindustan Copper shares have fallen about 10% over the past month, but analysts tracking the PSU metal stock are treating the correction as a potential accumulation window. The view is built around the company’s operational outlook, visible volume growth plans, and a longer-term expansion pipeline. Domestic brokerage Anand Rathi has reiterated a positive stance, pointing to multiple projects under way across mining and processing.

The brokerage’s thesis ties Hindustan Copper’s next leg of growth to both supply-side actions and a demand backdrop that it expects to stay supportive over the next decade. It has also flagged key risks that could affect the pace of execution, including commodity price volatility and possible delays in mining capex and volume ramp-up.

Share price move and what the brokerage is implying

Anand Rathi maintained a ‘Buy’ rating on Hindustan Copper and set a 12-month target price of ₹715. The target implies an upside potential of about 45% from Thursday’s closing price, and another version of the same call cited up to 46% upside from around ₹490.

The brokerage’s valuation framework in the note referenced an 8.7x FY30e EV/EBITDA multiple. The recommendation comes even as the stock has seen sharp moves over different periods, including a 12% gain in six months and a 90% rally in one year, alongside the recent one-month correction.

Gujarat Copper Plant revival: 50,000-tonne unit, 20-year contract

A key near-to-medium-term lever in the report is the Gujarat Copper Plant (GCP). Hindustan Copper has awarded a 20-year revenue-sharing contract to restart, upgrade, and maintain the 50,000-tonne plant.

At current LME copper prices and at optimal utilisation, Anand Rathi expects the plant to generate incremental revenue of ₹110-₹125 crore for Hindustan Copper. The brokerage positions the GCP revival as part of a multi-pronged capacity expansion plan rather than a standalone project, with the intent to build processing capability alongside mine-led volume growth.

Mining ramp-up: Kendadih restart and planned doubling

On the mining side, Hindustan Copper has resumed operations at the Kendadih copper mine with a 0.2 million-tonne capacity. The company plans to double Kendadih’s capacity to 0.4 million tonne, according to the report.

Anand Rathi also referenced a broader pipeline that includes evaluating the revival of the Pathargora block in Jharkhand and the Dikchu block in Sikkim. While these are described as relatively small-scale operations, the report said superior ore grade (average around 3%-4%) could offset lower production volumes. It added that a revival of these blocks could pave the next phase of expansion beyond CY30-31.

Volume outlook: MIC volume and the FY31 marker

In its projections, Anand Rathi expects cumulative MIC volume to top 0.1 million tonne by FY31e. The brokerage’s emphasis is that the expansion program is not limited to a single mine or plant, and that multiple projects together are expected to drive the output trajectory into the end of the decade.

The report also flagged that near-term production outcomes could be sensitive to project timelines and ramp-up execution, especially if mining capex or operational scaling runs behind schedule.

Demand backdrop: domestic copper consumption expected to rise

The brokerage expects copper demand to rise due to new-age applications, and projected that domestic copper demand could more than double over the next decade. It linked this view to end-use areas such as electric vehicles, renewable energy, power infrastructure, and electronics, as cited in the coverage.

In a separate context note, the positive stance was also supported by a 46.3% rise in LME copper prices over the past year. While price moves can support realizations, the report also listed commodity price volatility as a key risk.

Financial forecasts: FY26-31 growth and a Q1 FY27 view

Anand Rathi projected Hindustan Copper’s revenue to rise 3.3x to ₹10,200 crore over FY26-31, alongside an around 3.5x rise in EBITDA to ₹5,100 crore. In another operational snapshot included in the coverage, the brokerage expected FY27’s first quarter to be a record, with revenue projected at about ₹850 crore and an EBITDA margin of about 48%, citing higher international copper prices, a weaker rupee, and higher production.

The note also referenced that Hindustan Copper is working on a large capex program through FY30 under its Vision 2030 plan, which underpins the longer-duration expansion narrative.

Other Anand Rathi notes: target revisions and macro risks

The provided coverage also included earlier Anand Rathi research dated March 13, 2026, which maintained a ‘Buy’ rating with a target price of ₹650, citing near-term macro headwinds. It highlighted that higher freight costs linked to crude price movements can pressure operating margins. As context, it stated that “consumption of power, fuel and water” accounts for about 7% of revenue, which can create sensitivity to fuel costs.

That note also mentioned Hindustan Copper was granted a CL in Jan-26 for the Baghwari-Khirkhori block (about 299.34 hectares), and cited earlier exploration data indicating an average grade in the range of 0.5%-1.5% copper. It said mining at Kendadih began in Jan-26 and that output at Kolihan mine was likely to pick up from Q4 FY26 to Q1 FY27. Factoring in delayed ramp-up and freight-linked headwinds, the note said EBITDA estimates were trimmed by 8.7%, 5.2%, and 5% for FY26, FY27, and FY28, respectively.

Key facts at a glance

What investors will track next

Execution milestones on the Gujarat Copper Plant restart and utilisation ramp-up will remain central, given the incremental revenue estimate of ₹110-₹125 crore at optimal utilisation. On the mining side, investors will likely track progress on Kendadih’s capacity doubling and updates on possible revivals of Pathargora and Dikchu.

The brokerage has also explicitly listed risks that can alter near-term outcomes, including commodity price swings, delays in mining capex, and slower-than-expected volume scale-up. Updates around production pickup timelines, including the Kolihan ramp-up window cited as Q4 FY26 to Q1 FY27, will also matter for operating performance.

Conclusion

Hindustan Copper’s recent 10% correction has been framed by Anand Rathi as an accumulation opportunity, backed by capacity and mine expansion actions and multi-year earnings projections. The brokerage’s buy call and ₹715 target rest on visible projects such as the Gujarat Copper Plant revival and Kendadih expansion, alongside expectations of stronger domestic copper demand over the next decade. The next set of company updates on plant ramp-up, mine output, and block revival decisions will be the key checkpoints for this thesis.