Hormuz Ceasefire: Shippers Cautious as 800 Vessels Remain Trapped

A fragile two-week ceasefire between the United States and Iran, effective April 7, 2026, has partially reopened the critical Strait of Hormuz, offering a potential lifeline to global supply chains. However, with over 800 vessels trapped in the Persian Gulf, the shipping industry is responding with extreme caution, viewing the truce as a temporary reprieve rather than a return to normalcy. The narrow window presents immense logistical challenges, and stakeholders from energy importers like India to global container lines are carefully weighing the risks of resuming transit through one of the world's most vital maritime chokepoints.

India's Urgent Push for Energy Shipments

For India, a major importer of crude oil and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), the ceasefire presents a critical opportunity. The Indian government is actively engaging with Iran to expedite the movement of its flagged vessels. According to the shipping ministry, 16 Indian-flagged ships remain stuck in the Persian Gulf. The primary objective is to quickly offload these vessels and redeploy them to rebuild fuel inventories that have been strained since the conflict began on February 28. Mukesh Mangal, additional secretary at the ministry of ports, shipping, and waterways, confirmed coordination efforts with the Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) and shipowners to bring vessels home and resume cargo pickups. Despite these efforts, officials acknowledge that a full normalization of energy supplies could take at least three months, contingent on the ceasefire holding.

A Cautious Industry Response

Global shipping giants are not rushing to resume normal operations. Danish carrier Maersk acknowledged the transit opportunities but stated the agreement lacks full maritime certainty, maintaining its current service levels. Similarly, German line Hapag-Lloyd is refraining from transiting the strait based on its current risk assessment. Analysts at Xeneta, an ocean freight intelligence platform, expect carriers to take a measured approach. Chief analyst Peter Sand noted, “The ceasefire should come with a dose of reality because there is unlikely to be a rapid return to normality.” He anticipates that alternative landbridge routings via ports like Khor Fakkan and Sohar will remain in place while carriers conduct individual test voyages through Hormuz.

The Scale of the Logistical Gridlock

The sheer number of stranded vessels highlights the scale of the disruption. Data indicates between 800 and 1,000 ships are caught in the region. According to Kpler, this includes 426 tankers carrying crude and refined products, 34 LPG carriers, and 19 LNG vessels. An estimated 172 million barrels of crude oil and refined products are effectively stuck. Clearing this backlog under normal conditions would likely take more than two weeks. The conflict has displaced 250,000 TEU of weekly container shipping capacity, and the sudden convergence of vessels at Gulf ports is expected to strain port infrastructure, causing further delays.

The Impractical Voyage Math

An advisory from Mumbai-based Sarjak Container Lines (SCL) on April 8, 2026, outlined the operational dilemma. SCL Chairman Ashish Sheth explained that a full round trip through the Gulf consumes nearly all of the 15-day ceasefire window, leaving no buffer for port delays or other unforeseen issues. This makes committing to longer voyages a significant gamble, as there is no guarantee the corridor will remain open. Traffic data supports this cautious view; even with the truce, daily transits remain below 10% of the 130-140 daily movements seen before the conflict.

Insurance and Financial Risks Persist

A key barrier to resuming normal traffic is the high cost of insurance. When the conflict began, war risk premiums for Hormuz transits surged from 0.125% of a vessel's hull value to between 0.2% and 0.4%. This adds approximately a quarter of a million dollars per transit for a very large crude carrier (VLCC). The Joint War Committee of the London insurance market has not yet reset these underwriting positions, and premiums are expected to remain elevated until a durable political agreement is reached.

Iran's Terms for Transit

Iran has stipulated that safe passage will only be permitted if transits are coordinated with its armed forces. This condition introduces a new layer of operational complexity. Furthermore, reports have emerged that Iran may consider imposing a levy on vessels passing through the strait, a move that analysts warn could turn the waterway into an “Iranian tollbooth.” India's MEA spokesperson, Randhir Jaiswal, stated that India has had no discussions with Iran on this issue and expects unimpeded navigation under international conventions.

A Fragile Truce with No Guarantees

The stability of the ceasefire itself remains in question. US and Iranian delegations are scheduled to hold negotiations in Islamabad on Friday, April 10, to determine the future of the arrangement. However, the situation on the ground is still tense. Iran’s Supreme National Security Council stated its forces remain on alert, and missile alerts have reportedly continued in the region even after the truce was announced. This underlying volatility reinforces the industry's reluctance to fully commit to the Hormuz route.

Conclusion: A Step Forward, But Uncertainty Prevails

The two-week ceasefire is a welcome development that has averted a deeper crisis, but it is far from a solution. For the global shipping and energy markets, the operational, financial, and political risks remain exceptionally high. The logistical challenge of clearing the massive backlog of ships is daunting, and the short duration of the truce provides little confidence for long-term planning. The outcome of the upcoming talks in Islamabad will be critical in determining whether this brief pause can be converted into a sustainable pathway for restoring one of the world's most important trade arteries.