Strait of Hormuz: LNG U-turns revive 2026 risks

LNG tankers reverse course as closure warnings return

Fresh uncertainty has resurfaced around the Strait of Hormuz after multiple LNG tankers reportedly slowed down or turned back following warnings that the route had been shut again. Ship-tracking data cited by Bloomberg showed several vessels carrying cargo from Qatar changing direction near the western entrance of the strait. The incident matters because Hormuz is a narrow chokepoint connecting the Persian Gulf to open waters, and any disruption quickly ripples into global oil and gas flows.

The latest signs of disruption came after Iran had declared on April 17 that the Strait of Hormuz was completely open. Yet, shortly after, messages were reportedly broadcast to maritime crews indicating that the strait was closed. In the same window, one vessel also reported gunfire, according to shipowners who spoke anonymously due to the security situation.

What the ship-tracking data shows

Bloomberg’s compilation of ship-tracking data indicated that at least five LNG tankers changed course after heading toward the western opening of the Strait of Hormuz. These ships had loaded in Qatar and had already been stranded inside the Persian Gulf for more than a month. Instead of exiting, some turned back toward Qatari waters. Others slowed dramatically and were barely moving, underscoring operational caution among operators and crews.

Qatar is one of the world’s biggest LNG exporters, and nearly all of its LNG supply transits Hormuz. If tankers cannot pass, buyers across Asia and beyond face tighter supplies and higher prices. The situation has intensified focus on how quickly a localized security escalation can translate into supply constraints.

Why the strait is central to global energy trade

The Strait of Hormuz is among the world’s most critical energy chokepoints, handling roughly a fifth of global oil trade. The route is also key for gas, with the effective closure since late February blocking nearly one-fifth of global LNG supplies, according to the information provided. Since the US-Israeli offensive on Iran began in late February, no loaded LNG vessel has successfully exited the Persian Gulf.

That effective closure has already disrupted physical flows and market pricing. Emerging Asian markets that depend heavily on imported gas have reported shortages. LNG prices were cited as surging to around $14–25 per MMBtu, with authorities prioritising supply security over cost in the short term to maintain essential services.

US plan for a targeted naval blockade adds complexity

India’s energy supply chain through Hormuz came under renewed focus after the United States said it would move to enforce a naval blockade targeting ships linked to Iran, following the collapse of talks between Washington and Tehran. The US has indicated the proposed action is not a blanket closure, and is aimed at vessels entering or leaving Iranian ports. The strait remains open to other commercial traffic, and there has been no official announcement of a complete shutdown.

Even so, the article notes that limited disruption in Hormuz can have wider effects given the volume of oil and gas moving through the passage. The Guardian was cited in connection with the broader risk that targeted measures can still alter shipping patterns, create delays, and raise freight and insurance costs.

India’s immediate exposure: LPG supply tightness

For India, the more immediate sensitivity highlighted is LPG supply. Government data cited in the article said India imports roughly 60% of its LPG requirements, with a large majority of these shipments originating from the Gulf and transiting Hormuz. Reuters-cited data also stated that nearly 90% of India’s LPG imports originate from the Middle East.

In recent weeks, LPG supply tightened for commercial users such as restaurants and small businesses as supplies were prioritised for households. At the same time, households reported delays in domestic cylinder deliveries. India Today TV was cited for a report that the shortage also led to a migrant exodus.

Crude and LNG: diversification helps, but route risk remains

On crude oil, India’s diversified sourcing reduces the risk of an immediate supply shortage, but the import bill remains highly sensitive to global prices when Hormuz risks rise. India’s imports of Iranian crude have remained negligible since 2019 after US sanctions led to a halt in purchases. Still, the article said India is set to receive its first Iranian crude cargo in seven years this week.

India continues to depend heavily on Gulf producers such as Iraq, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE, with shipments moving through the same route. Despite the tensions, India-bound cargoes have continued to transit Hormuz, and Iran has allowed passage to what it describes as “non-hostile” vessels, including India-bound shipments, though access has remained tightly controlled and reduced.

Ships stranded and cargoes stuck: what officials disclosed

India’s Shipping Ministry provided specific figures on cargoes stuck in the region. Rajesh Kumar Sinha, Special Secretary in the Shipping Ministry, said India has 1.67 million tonnes of crude oil, 0.32 million tonnes of LPG, and about 0.2 million tonnes of LNG stuck on 22 Indian-flagged ships stranded in the Persian Gulf waiting to transit Hormuz. He also said all 611 seafarers on 22 vessels on the west side of the strait are safe.

The composition of the stranded fleet was detailed: six LPG carriers, one LNG tanker, four crude oil tankers, plus other non-energy vessels including container ships, bulk carriers, and ships under maintenance. Analysts cited in the report said Iran may be allowing select vessels to transit after verification of ownership and cargo.

Market signals: oil above $100 and gas at $14–25

The escalation has already had an impact on global energy markets. Crude oil prices climbed above $100 a barrel, reflecting concerns over potential supply risks in a region that accounts for a significant share of global energy flows. For gas, prices were cited around $14–25 per MMBtu, reinforcing the cost shock for importing countries even when physical deliveries continue.

For India, the article linked higher global prices to implications for the import bill, currency, and inflation trajectory. Market participants and policymakers were described as watching shipping patterns and any escalation that could affect flows.

Key facts at a glance

What has moved, and what remains uncertain

Some shipments have shown cautious movement. Reuters-cited ship-tracking data from LSEG and Kpler indicated two India-bound LPG tankers, BW Elm and BW Tyr, were transiting Hormuz. S&P Global Energy also noted that two state-owned LPG carriers, VLGCs Shivalik and Nanda Devi, successfully crossed the strait and arrived in India during the week, carrying around 46,000 metric tonnes each, taking total delivered supplies to over 92,000 metric tonnes.

But uncertainty remains around whether Iran’s “non-hostile” passage approach would continue if the US moves ahead with enforcement of its proposed naval blockade. The article also described the broader environment as fluid, with potential implications for global energy markets and India’s import-dependent economy.

Why this episode matters for India’s energy planning

The crisis has triggered changes in sourcing strategy and highlighted the risk of concentrated dependence on a single maritime chokepoint. Data points in the article stated that the Strait of Hormuz accounted for approximately 41% of India’s crude oil imports, 55% of its LNG imports, and 88% of its LPG imports during the first nine months of FY2026. It also said the share of crude imports via the strait rose to 53% in January 2026, up from 41-42% in prior years.

Separately, government sources quoted by CNN-News18 described a push to reduce dependence on Gulf LNG after disruptions in Qatar, India’s largest LNG supplier, contributing around 40-47% of annual LNG imports. Qatar suspended LNG production on March 2 after Iranian strikes hit Gulf energy facilities, according to the same account. India has been looking to expand LNG sourcing to the US, Australia and African producers.

Conclusion

LNG tanker U-turns and slowdowns near the Strait of Hormuz have brought back immediate questions about shipping safety, supply continuity, and pricing in global gas markets. For India, the near-term stress point remains LPG availability, while oil and LNG risks feed through freight, price, and planning uncertainty. With the US preparing a targeted naval blockade and Iran’s messaging to shipping crews shifting rapidly, the next key signals will be official navigation advisories, verified transit permissions, and whether more cargoes can move out of the Persian Gulf without diversion or delay.