Strait of Hormuz shipping stays under 10% in 2026

A ceasefire, but shipping is still barely moving

Ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remained well below 10% of normal volumes on Thursday, even after a U.S.-Iran ceasefire was announced. Maritime tracking data showed only 10 vessels had passed through the strategic waterway since the truce took effect. The key issue for operators is no longer whether transit is technically possible. It is whether shipowners and charterers are willing to move at scale under conditions that remain uncertain.

Iran has asserted control over how the strait is used, warning ships to keep to its territorial waters while transiting. Several industry voices described the corridor as operationally constrained rather than fully open. Lloyd’s List editor-in-chief Richard Meade summed it up by saying the strait “remains as open or closed as it was” before the ceasefire plan emerged.

Why Hormuz matters for oil, cargo, and India

The Strait of Hormuz links the Gulf and the Indian Ocean and is about 167 km (104 miles) long. It is a major chokepoint for energy and commodity cargo. Separate reporting in the provided material notes the strait accounts for nearly 20% of global petroleum trade. The disruption has also been described as cutting global oil supply by 20% in what was termed the “world’s biggest-ever supply disruption.”

For India, the strait is central to inbound crude oil and LNG flows and to outbound trade linked to project cargo and industrial supply chains. The material also notes petroleum cargo accounts for nearly a third of total Indian port traffic, making any prolonged disruption relevant for POL volumes, freight costs, and schedule reliability.

What the tracking data shows since the truce

The ceasefire was announced on Wednesday as a two-week truce. Yet transit counts remained minimal through Thursday. According to Kpler, four tankers and six bulk carriers passed through the strait from the start of the ceasefire up to Thursday. Only one of those tankers was not Iranian.

That non-Iranian tanker was the “MSG”, a Gabon-flagged ship that transited on Thursday with around 7,000 tonnes of Emirati fuel oil and was headed to India, according to MarineTraffic. Separately, ship-tracking data on the MarineTraffic and Pole Star Global platforms showed a chemical tanker was set to cross with India as destination.

Lloyd’s List Intelligence analyst Bridget Diakun said traffic in the past week was “90 percent below normal levels” and “almost entirely being driven by Iranian trade.” Kpler analyst Ana Subasic said traffic was expected to remain at a maximum 10-15 passages a day “if the ceasefire holds.”

A “managed corridor” with Iran-set routes

A notable operational shift is routing control. Iran announced alternative routes through the strait on Thursday, citing the risk of sea mines in the waterway’s main zone. The IRGC set out routes near Iran’s Larak Island, and ships could only use the strait in collaboration with the Iranian navy, according to intelligence firm Vanguard Tech.

The material also notes that, apart from three Omani tankers that passed near Oman’s coast last week, recent transits have used the Iranian-approved route. Some ships reportedly paid a fee. The Financial Times separately reported Iran could ask for one dollar per barrel of oil passing through the strait, to be paid in cryptocurrency.

Backlog risk: ships stuck and slow clearing times

The disruption has created a large backlog inside the Gulf. Lloyd’s List put the number of stuck ships at around 800 since the war started on February 28, while other references in the supplied text described “hundreds” of tankers and ships stuck.

Risk intelligence company Verisk Maplecroft warned that even if traffic rises, it will take time to normalise. Torbjorn Soltvedt of Verisk Maplecroft said “two weeks will not be enough to clear the backlog even if there is a marked increase in traffic.” The text also highlighted that a sudden return of movements could come in clusters rather than smoothly, raising the risk of congestion at anchorages and ports.

Safety signals: GPS disruption, mine alerts, and critical threat level

Operational risk has been reinforced by reports from crews and security advisories. Indian seafarers in the region have reported GPS disruptions and warnings about underwater mines, alongside repeated radio broadcasts warning ships against transit. A master mariner, Captain Manish Kumar, described navigation being “severely affected due to GPS,” and said ships were being given maps marking specific transit corridors.

A March 24 advisory by the Joint Maritime Information Center flagged the regional maritime threat level as “critical,” citing 21 confirmed incidents since March 1 and ongoing “navigation interference” across the Strait of Hormuz, Gulf of Oman and Arabian Gulf.

Insurance and commercial caution remain central constraints

Even where passage is technically possible, underwriters and ship operators can treat the region as a war-risk zone. The supplied material repeatedly frames insurance as a gatekeeper for large-scale movement. That caution is reflected in corporate decisions as well: German shipping giant Hapag-Lloyd said it will not resume traffic on the route.

BIMCO’s chief safety and security officer Jakob Larsen also warned that leaving the Gulf “would not be advisable” without coordinating with the United States and Iran, underscoring why many owners are hesitant to commit vessels.

India-linked passage continues, but selectively

Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said the strait remains open for “friendly nations” and cited India among countries for which Iran’s armed forces have provided safe passage, based on coordination requests. At the same time, the supplied material indicates vessels linked to adversaries may be denied passage.

This selective operating environment helps explain why a dozen vessels that appeared to be on course to pass through were largely tied to Iran or countries not hostile to Iran. It also suggests why traffic after the ceasefire looked little changed from the days before it.

Key facts at a glance

What to watch next

The ceasefire is time-bound at two weeks, and the material also frames it as a tight operating window for voyage planning. Discussions in Islamabad, beginning Friday April 10, were cited as a key point that could determine whether the truce holds.

Until shipowners see sustained stability, clear navigation authority, and easing of war-risk pricing, traffic through Hormuz is likely to remain constrained. For India, the immediate signals to track are POL-related port volumes, tanker scheduling reliability, and whether India-linked vessels continue to receive coordinated passage under Iran’s evolving route and clearance protocols.