ICICI Bank outlook 2026: Motilal sees ₹1,750 TP

Stock movement triggers fresh focus on ratings

ICICI Bank shares have been volatile over a short window, falling about 6% over four trading sessions before rebounding. On Tuesday, the stock rose 2.33% to close at ₹1,251, according to the data cited. The move put the spotlight back on brokerage views and target prices for India’s large private sector lender. Domestic brokerage Motilal Oswal has maintained a constructive stance, calling the bank well-positioned and capable of delivering steady growth.

The coverage and reiterations referenced in the material include multiple target prices from the same brokerage at different points, and a broader set of targets from other firms. While targets vary, the common thread in the notes is that analyst sentiment is “largely positive” even after the near-term pullback. The figures provided also show that the implied upside depends heavily on the reference price used.

Motilal Oswal’s Buy stance and ₹1,750 target

Motilal Oswal initiated coverage on ICICI Bank with a ‘Buy’ rating and a price target of ₹1,750, as stated. The brokerage’s note indicates that the target implies a potential upside of around 40% from the prevailing price context referenced alongside the call. In another portion of the provided text, Motilal Oswal reiterates ICICI Bank as its top Buy in the sector with a target price of ₹1,750.

The same target is also described as being based on September 2027E adjusted book value (ABV), with a “subsidiaries” value added on top in a sum-of-the-parts style approach. One version of the valuation framework in the text pegs the target at 2.7 times Sep’27E adjusted book value plus ₹263 for subsidiaries. This is an important nuance because it indicates that the target is not purely derived from the standalone bank multiple.

Growth, profitability, and return ratios cited in the notes

Motilal Oswal’s forecasts in the provided material include a 17.6% CAGR in pre-provision operating profit and a 16% CAGR in profit after tax (PAT) over FY26-28E. Those growth assumptions are linked to an RoA of 2.3% and RoE of 16.1% by FY27E in the same excerpt. Elsewhere, Motilal Oswal is also cited expecting FY27E RoA/RoE of 2.3%/17.0% in a report dated October 19, 2025.

Separately, another Motilal Oswal summary (MOFSL) reiterates a ‘Buy’ rating and mentions resilient performance, strong technology adoption, and steady growth across retail and business segments. In that excerpt, the brokerage expects RoA/RoE of 2.3%/16.7% by FY27E and values the stock at 2.7 times FY27E ABV plus a sum-of-the-parts value of ₹270.

Asset quality expectations: NPA trajectory

The material includes a specific medium-term asset quality expectation attributed to the brokerage. It estimates that by FY28, gross NPA could decline to 1.43% and net NPA to 0.34%. These numbers, if achieved, would indicate further improvement from already relatively controlled levels for a large private bank, but the text only provides the FY28 estimates rather than a starting point.

The NPA trajectory is presented alongside the broader “strong position” argument, suggesting that asset quality is a key pillar in the Buy thesis. With banking valuations often sensitive to credit costs and slippages, the explicit FY28 gross and net NPA projections provide a measurable reference point for investors tracking execution.

Different targets from the same brokerage across reports

The provided content also includes other Motilal Oswal target prices and valuation multiples from separate time-stamped or separately titled notes. One note headlined “Buy ICICI Bank; target of Rs 1700” (dated October 19, 2025) mentions ICICI Bank as a preferred Buy with a revised target price of ₹1,700, based on 2.8 times FY27E ABV.

Another Motilal Oswal “Outlook” excerpt states the firm expects FY27E RoA/RoE at 2.3%/17.3% and keeps ICICI Bank as a preferred Buy with a revised target price of ₹1,670, premised on 2.7 times FY27E ABV. The same excerpt adds that a digital plus branch-led strategy supports deposit growth, with an expectation of 14% CAGR in FY25-27.

A separate item titled “Buy ICICI Bank; target of Rs 1230” states that Motilal Oswal slightly raised EPS estimates by 1.6% and 0.9% for FY24 and FY25 and expected RoA/RoE of 2.3%/18.3% in FY25, while maintaining a Buy rating with a target price of ₹1,230.

Street view: Jefferies, CLSA, Nuvama, Anand Rathi

Beyond Motilal Oswal, the text says several other firms maintain ‘Buy’ or ‘Outperform’ ratings, including Jefferies, CLSA, Nuvama, and Anand Rathi. Their targets are described as ranging between ₹1,630 and ₹1,760. This range suggests broad agreement on constructive fundamentals, even if the exact valuation assumptions differ.

The provided material also references a “consensus” price target averaging around ₹1,671.10, with other estimates reaching ₹1,703.63. These figures are presented as part of the broader positive sentiment framing.

Where the stock was trading in the cited periods

The text provides more than one price reference point. One section states that as of early February 2026, ICICI Bank was trading around ₹1,408.40. In the same context, the ₹1,750 target is described as implying an upside of approximately 18.65% to 21.05% from then-current levels, highlighting how upside calculations change with price.

Another section, in Hindi, notes the stock fell about 6% over four sessions, but rose 2.33% on Tuesday to close at ₹1,251. Taken together, the figures show that brokerage targets were being discussed amid both a lower close (₹1,251) and a higher “early February 2026” level (₹1,408.40) in different excerpts.

Key numbers snapshot

Forecast and valuation assumptions cited

Market impact and what investors can track next

The immediate market impact described is the short-term drawdown followed by a one-day rebound. The larger takeaway from the material is that broker conviction has remained intact despite price volatility, with multiple Buy or Outperform calls and targets clustered broadly in the mid-₹1,600s to mid-₹1,700s.

For investors tracking the story, the concrete checkpoints cited in the notes are the return ratios (RoA and RoE), the asset quality trajectory (gross and net NPA by FY28), and the growth rates (profit CAGRs and deposit CAGR). The valuation framework also matters because several targets explicitly reference adjusted book value multiples plus an added subsidiaries value. Any future update that changes FY27E or Sep’27E ABV assumptions could alter these targets even without a change in the rating.

Conclusion

ICICI Bank remains a preferred Buy for Motilal Oswal across multiple excerpts, with targets ranging from ₹1,670 to ₹1,750 depending on the note, and valuation anchored to ABV multiples and a subsidiaries component. Other brokerages cited also maintain positive ratings with targets between ₹1,630 and ₹1,760. The next data points to watch, as per the cited forecasts, are progress toward the targeted RoA/RoE levels and the FY28 gross and net NPA estimates.