ICICI Bank Q4FY26 Preview: NII Up 4-8%, NIM Watch

What the Street expects from ICICI Bank in Q4FY26

ICICI Bank is heading into its March quarter (Q4FY26) results with expectations of a steady operating performance. Brokerages cited in the provided preview text are largely aligned on two themes: net interest income (NII) should grow at a mid-single-digit pace, while headline profit growth may look muted due to a high base and normalisation in provisions. Loan growth is expected to remain robust, and asset quality is described as healthy, keeping credit costs contained.

At the same time, analysts flagged mild pressure on net interest margins (NIMs). That margin discussion matters because it shapes how much of the earnings delivery is driven by volumes rather than spreads. Investors are also expected to track deposit trends closely, since deposit growth is projected to lag loan growth in the estimates cited.

Result date, dividend, and board agenda

The preview text contains multiple references to the result date. One section states ICICI Bank is set to announce its Q4FY26 results on April 18, with the board also likely to consider a dividend and fundraising plans. Another section in the provided text states the Q4 FY26 results are scheduled for April 26, 2026.

Separately, the same material notes that the bank is expected to hold a media briefing and an investor call later in the day, which is expected to provide clarity on performance and outlook. Dividend expectations also appear in the preview table, which mentions a dividend expectation of ₹12 to ₹15 per share.

Profit expectations: brokerages cluster around ₹12,390 to ₹13,084.8 crore

Brokerage estimates in the text indicate a narrow band of profit outcomes. Nomura’s estimate in the provided material pegs Q4FY26 net profit at ₹12,390 crore, which it describes as a marginal 2% year-on-year decline, alongside a 9% sequential rise. Kotak Institutional Equities (KIE) estimates net profit at ₹13,084.8 crore, up 4% year-on-year and 15.6% quarter-on-quarter. Axis Securities projects net profit at ₹12,726 crore, up 0.8% year-on-year and 12.4% quarter-on-quarter.

The synopsis portion also states that brokerages are projecting around 2% to 6% year-on-year PAT growth, even as some specific estimates show flat-to-slightly-down year-on-year outcomes due to base effects.

NII outlook: estimates around ₹22,110.2 to ₹22,700 crore

NII is expected to remain the most stable part of the quarter’s performance. Nomura projects NII at ₹22,700 crore, implying about 7% year-on-year growth and 4% quarter-on-quarter growth. KIE projects NII at ₹22,110.2 crore, up 4% year-on-year and 0.8% quarter-on-quarter. Axis Securities is close to Nomura on NII, projecting ₹22,674 crore, up 7% year-on-year and 3.4% quarter-on-quarter.

The synopsis also frames expectations more broadly as a 4% to 8% rise in NII year-on-year.

Margin expectations: sequential compression is the key debate

NIM expectations in the preview cluster around 4.0% to 4.1% for Q4FY26 in the provided consensus snapshot. Nomura expects NIMs to ease by about 2 basis points sequentially to around 4.2%, citing the full impact of the December 2025 rate cut, and notes possible cushioning from term deposit repricing and gains from the cash reserve ratio (CRR) adjustment.

KIE expects a larger sequential NIM compression of around 10 basis points to about 4.1%, linking this to modest deposit growth and funding competition. Another section of the text explicitly states that intense deposit-rate competition could pressure NIM, adding that a 10 bps NIM compression could reduce quarterly NII by about ₹1,200 to ₹1,500 crore.

Loan growth remains strong; deposits are expected to lag

On volumes, Nomura projects loan growth of about 14% year-on-year, with advances expected at roughly ₹15.3 trillion, which is ₹15,30,000 crore. KIE expects loan growth of 13% year-on-year, with advances at ₹15.19 trillion, or ₹15,19,000 crore. Other parts of the preview material cite a broader expectation of 15% to 17% year-on-year loan growth for Q4FY26.

Deposits are expected to grow more slowly in the cited estimates. Nomura expects deposit growth of around 9% year-on-year, taking deposits to nearly ₹17.6 trillion, or ₹17,60,000 crore. KIE also expects deposit growth of around 9% year-on-year, similarly placing deposits at ₹17.60 trillion. In the brief transcript-style segment included in the prompt, one estimate mentions 4% sequential loan growth and 3% deposit growth being pencilled in.

Asset quality, provisioning normalisation, and credit costs

The preview narrative emphasises that asset quality is expected to remain healthy, with improvement in asset quality flagged as a key trigger alongside the FY27 outlook. It also says profit growth may appear muted due to a high base and normalisation in provisions.

Some specific items are mentioned as prior-quarter reference points in the provided text. One section notes an RBI-mandated provision of ₹1,283 crore on agricultural priority sector loans that weighed on reported earnings, and another mentions a one-time charge of around ₹145 crore linked to new labour codes. KIE expects lower credit costs of around 0.3% for Q4FY26, with “no major surprises” expected on the provisioning front, and it builds slippages of around 1.5% (around ₹5,500 crore).

Operating profit and treasury: stable fees, but bond yields in focus

Nomura expects pre-provision operating profit (PPoP) at ₹18,150 crore, up 3% year-on-year and 5% quarter-on-quarter, supported by stable fee income and controlled operating expenses. The same section adds that treasury-related pressures amid rising bond yields may weigh on reported earnings.

KIE projects flat PPoP growth at ₹17,781.6 crore, factoring in slower loan growth and lower NIM. Across the preview text, weaker treasury income is repeatedly flagged as a possible headwind alongside margin pressure.

Key numbers table: what the estimates in the text imply

What investors will monitor on the call

The synopsis lists the key monitorables as the NIM trajectory, deposit trends, credit costs, and provisioning. The detailed preview sections repeat that management commentary on margin outlook, and the pace of loan and deposit growth, are likely to be the central discussion points. Asset quality commentary is also flagged as an important variable, particularly in the context of provisioning normalisation.

Dividend and fundraising also sit on the agenda, with the board expected to consider a dividend and fundraising plans, and the preview material also referencing a potential buyback review in a separate section.

Conclusion

The Q4FY26 preview points to steady business momentum for ICICI Bank, led by NII growth and robust loan expansion, with margins expected to soften modestly in several estimates. Profit expectations remain in a relatively tight range, with provisions and treasury income identified as swing factors. Investors are likely to look for clarity on NIM trajectory, deposit mobilisation, credit costs, provisioning, and any dividend or fundraising decisions when the bank announces results and hosts its media briefing and investor call.