IGL share price target 2026: key calls after Q4 results

What changed for IGL after Q4 FY26

Indraprastha Gas Ltd (IGL), India’s largest city gas retailer, reported a weaker March 2026 quarter as higher input gas costs and supply-side pressures linked to West Asia disruptions weighed on profitability. Even so, at least four brokerages maintained their ‘Buy’ calls after the results, pointing to improving volume growth and potential relief from pricing actions. The divergence in views has been sharpest on margins, with some analysts treating the quarter as a temporary cost shock and others flagging a more prolonged squeeze.

IGL also announced a final dividend recommendation alongside the results. In the market, the stock traded lower on Wednesday morning, reflecting the mixed balance of earnings pressure and supportive broker commentary.

Q4 FY26 profit: down YoY, but above some estimates

IGL’s net profit for the fourth quarter ended March 2026 declined 21% year-on-year to Rs 277.08 crore, according to the data provided. Motilal Oswal Financial Services (MOFSL) pegged profit after tax at Rs 280 crore and said this was 44% above its estimate, despite the YoY decline.

MOFSL also highlighted an operating outperformance versus its model. It said EBITDA came in at Rs 420 crore, down 15% YoY but 51% above its estimate. The brokerage attributed the surprise to better-than-expected EBITDA per scm, even as costs moved up.

Operating metrics: volume growth, but cost pressure

On operating metrics, MOFSL said total volumes were 9.69 mmscmd, up 6% YoY and slightly below its estimate. It reported Q4 FY26 EBITDA/scm of Rs 4.8, which it said was 44% higher than its estimate.

The same note also pointed to cost escalation during the quarter. Gas costs and operating expenses increased by about Rs 1 and Rs 0.8 per scm quarter-on-quarter in Q4, respectively. This cost trend is central to the debate on whether IGL can sustain the margin improvement implied by longer-term guidance.

Pricing actions: May 2026 CNG hike cited as near-term relief

PL Capital said the recent Rs 3/kg CNG price hike in May 2026 provides some relief against elevated input costs. At the same time, it cautioned that if West Asia disruptions continue, additional price hikes may be required to offset margin pressures.

This framing is consistent with the broader theme across notes: volume growth is improving, but the ability to protect margins depends on how quickly gas procurement costs stabilise and how much of the cost can be passed through.

What brokerages are recommending now

MOFSL reiterated ‘Buy’ and said it values IGL at 15x Dec’27E SA P/E, adding Rs 43 per share as the value of JVs to arrive at a target price of Rs 220 per share. MOFSL also cited a 2% FY27E dividend yield and 18% EPS CAGR over FY26-28 as part of its attractiveness argument.

PL Capital maintained a ‘Buy’ and raised its target price to Rs 181 per share from Rs 174. It valued the standalone business at 11x FY28E adjusted EPS and assigned Rs 28 per share for investments, applying a 25% holding company discount.

Systematix Institutional Equities maintained ‘Buy’ but revised its target price down to Rs 212 from Rs 226, using a 12x PER on FY28E versus 13x earlier due to adverse market conditions. YES Securities also maintained ‘Buy’, assigning a 14x PER with a revised target price of Rs 190, including investments in MNGL (Rs 32 per share) and CUGL (Rs 5 per share).

Target prices and ratings: a quick comparison

The bearish pocket: Nuvama flags sector and policy risk

Nuvama Institutional Equities retained a ‘Reduce’ call and cut its target price to Rs 148 from Rs 173. It argued that CGD multiples could de-rate due to uncertainty from ad-hoc government policies and said it is cautious on IGL’s sustainable margin guidance.

Nuvama also said it is cutting FY27E and FY28E EBITDA by 15% each due to near-term margin pressure. The note highlights a risk that investors are watching closely: the extent to which gas cost shocks persist and compress profitability beyond the immediate quarters.

Network expansion and FY27 guidance signals

Systematix highlighted that IGL added 65 new CNG stations in FY26, taking the total to 1,024 stations, and added 3.7 lakh DPNG connections during FY26. It also said IGL guided for an FY27 exit volume of 10.6 mmscmd and guided for EBITDA/scm of Rs 7-8.

Systematix expects elevated gas costs to weigh on H1 FY27E profitability, with improvement in FY28E. It said it raised its FY28E EBITDA/scm estimate by 10.5% to Rs 7/scm.

Dividend and stock move around results

IGL’s board recommended a final dividend of Rs 1.50 per equity share (75%), subject to shareholder approval, as per the provided details.

On the trading side, IGL shares were last seen 1.72% lower at Rs 154.55 in Wednesday’s trade. Another datapoint in the text said that around 9:25 am the stock was trading near Rs 155, down 1.43% on BSE. Separately, an account in the same dataset said the shares initially surged 7% to Rs 468.20 after the results, showing how fragmented reporting around the move has been in the available information.

Key numbers investors are tracking

Why the debate is still open after Q4

The bullish notes lean on volume growth, network additions, and the possibility that pricing actions like the May 2026 hike help rebuild profitability. The cautious view focuses on uncertainty in input gas costs tied to West Asia disruptions and the risk of policy-driven sector de-rating.

For investors, the next checkpoints will likely be whether volumes move toward the guided FY27 exit level of 10.6 mmscmd and whether EBITDA/scm trends closer to the guided Rs 7-8 range. The market is also watching how quickly any additional price increases, if needed, can be implemented without slowing demand.

Conclusion

IGL’s Q4 FY26 print showed a clear earnings decline year-on-year, but also delivered an EBITDA surprise for at least one major brokerage model. Brokerages remain split between those backing volume-led recovery and those warning that margins and sector multiples could stay under pressure. The next quarters will be shaped by gas cost trends, the pace of price pass-through, and management’s delivery against FY27 volume and EBITDA/scm guidance.