India CPI Inflation Seen at 3.8% in April 2026: Poll

Inflation edges closer to the RBI’s 4% target

India’s consumer inflation likely picked up in April, moving closer to the Reserve Bank of India’s 4% medium-term target, according to a Reuters poll of economists. The poll suggests higher fuel costs began feeding into prices after the U.S.-Iran war disrupted energy supplies. Even with the expected rise, inflation would remain below 4%, extending a period of readings under the target for more than a year. Economists have attributed the recent moderation largely to softer food prices and favourable base effects. April’s estimate, however, points to those tailwinds weakening at the margin. The official CPI data is scheduled for release on May 12.

What the Reuters poll forecast says

A May 4-8 Reuters poll of 46 economists forecast CPI inflation, measured by the annual change in the consumer price index, at 3.80% in April. That compares with 3.40% in March, indicating a 40 basis point rise month on month in annual terms. Estimates in the Reuters poll ranged from 2.80% to 4.20%, underlining uncertainty on how strongly fuel costs passed through to household prices. The poll framed the move as inflation inching closer to the RBI’s 4% anchor rather than a sharp re-acceleration. Rahul Bajoria, head of India and ASEAN economic research at BofA Securities, said headline inflation was expected to tick up on higher food and some pass-through of higher global energy prices.

Fuel costs and the LPG price hike in focus

Economists in the Reuters poll linked the April uptick partly to higher fuel costs as global energy prices rose amid the conflict. A key local channel has been cooking fuel: Indian companies raised LPG prices in March, and economists said the impact likely carried into April. Since LPG is widely used by households, changes in its price can show up in the fuel and light component and ripple into services where cooking gas is an input. The poll’s narrative suggests this was less about a broad-based price surge and more about specific energy-linked categories firming up. The same dynamic can also affect transport-linked costs as fuel prices move.

Food prices stayed relatively soft, but the cushion may narrow

The broader inflation backdrop has been helped by softer-than-usual increases in food prices, according to Reuters. But economists cautioned that this support may fade if weather risks intensify. Separately, an Informist poll of 13 economists also pegged April CPI inflation at 3.8%, describing it as a 15-month high. Nirmal Bang Equities estimated food and beverage inflation at 4.2% in April, up from 3.71% in March, while noting that cereals, pulses and vegetables remained relatively benign despite unseasonal rains in March and a heatwave in April. Data from India’s Department of Consumer Affairs showed tomato retail prices rose 3% month on month in April, while potato and onion prices fell 4% month on month. The same data set showed edible oil prices rose around 2%.

Monsoon warning adds a fresh risk to the inflation outlook

The India Meteorological Department’s warning of a below-normal monsoon has become a key swing factor cited by economists. Reuters reported that the food-price tailwind may fade if weaker rains lift inflation and pressure the RBI to raise interest rates. This matters because monsoon outcomes can influence the trajectory of cereal and vegetable prices and, in turn, overall inflation expectations. While April’s expected CPI print remains below 4%, the monsoon risk keeps attention on the next few months rather than a single data point. The uncertainty also helps explain the wide range of forecasts captured in the Reuters poll.

Core inflation: what the polls are signalling

Core inflation, which excludes volatile food and fuel, was expected at 3.55% in April in the Reuters report. Reuters also noted that India does not publish official core inflation data. The Informist poll placed core inflation at 3.5% in April, up from 3.3% in March. While the two surveys differ slightly, both point to core inflation staying in the mid-3% range, even as headline inflation rises on energy-linked pressures. For investors, core inflation readings are closely watched as a gauge of underlying demand conditions and pricing power beyond food and fuel swings.

Wholesale inflation expected to rise as well

The Reuters poll also showed wholesale price index-based inflation likely rose to 4.40% in April from 3.88% in March. A higher WPI print alongside firmer CPI can reinforce the view that input costs are rising, particularly in energy-linked categories. However, the CPI and WPI baskets differ, and the transmission from wholesale to retail inflation can be uneven and lagged. Still, the expected move higher in both measures keeps focus on how quickly global commodity prices filter through to domestic prices.

Key numbers and dates at a glance

Informist poll details and select estimates

Market impact: what this means for rates and expectations

A CPI move towards 4% keeps markets focused on how the RBI balances inflation risks with growth considerations. Reuters reported that subdued inflation has stayed below the RBI’s target for more than a year, but higher fuel costs are now a visible upside risk. Economists also warned that a below-normal monsoon could lift inflation and pressure the RBI to raise interest rates. Reuters added that most economists polled last month expected rates to remain on hold through 2027, suggesting the base case is still for stability even with near-term bumps in headline inflation. For investors, the May 12 CPI print will be read alongside signals from fuel and food categories to judge whether April’s rise is temporary or part of a broader firming trend.

Conclusion: May 12 data is the next checkpoint

India’s April CPI inflation is widely expected to rise to about 3.8%, reflecting higher fuel-related pressures and the lagged effect of the LPG price increase in March. Softer food inflation has helped keep headline inflation below 4% so far, but monsoon risks and elevated energy prices remain key variables. The official CPI release on May 12 will clarify how much of the rise came from fuel and whether food inflation is starting to firm meaningfully. Alongside CPI, the expected uptick in WPI inflation will also be tracked for signs of broader input-cost pressure.