India exports jump 15% in FY27 Q1, Goyal eyes $1T mark

The headline: FY27 Q1 export growth and the $1 trillion target

Commerce and industry minister Piyush Goyal said India’s exports grew 15% year-on-year in the first quarter of FY27. He also expressed confidence that the country can cross the $1 trillion exports milestone during the fiscal year. The statement comes as India’s latest trade releases show a mixed pattern across goods and services, with month-to-month volatility in deficits largely driven by imports such as crude oil, gold, and bullion.

The export target is being framed against a higher base built over the past two fiscals. India’s total exports were reported at $163 billion in FY26, reflecting a large combined base of merchandise and services that policymakers are using to track progress toward the next threshold.

FY26 export base: where India is starting from

Government data put India’s total exports at $163 billion in FY26. Within this, merchandise exports were $142 billion and services exports were $121 billion. That split matters because recent monthly updates show services often acting as a stabiliser when merchandise trade faces global headwinds.

The FY26 number also sits alongside prior-year milestones cited in the same set of reports. India’s total exports touched an all-time high of $124.9 billion in FY25, a 6.01% increase over $178.1 billion in FY24. These figures form the recent trajectory against which a $1 trillion target is being discussed.

April 2026 snapshot: exports up, deficit still wide

In April 2026, India exported $13.7 billion and imported $11.9 billion. That left a negative trade balance of $18.2 billion for the month. The year-on-year comparison shows exports rising faster in absolute terms, but imports expanding too.

Between April 2025 and April 2026, exports increased by $1.17 billion (13.4%), from $18.5 billion to $13.7 billion. Imports rose by $1.03 billion (10.8%), from $14.9 billion to $11.9 billion. The arithmetic highlights that even with export growth, a larger import bill can keep the trade balance under pressure.

May 2026: deficit print highlights import sensitivity

India recorded a trade deficit of $18.21 billion in May 2026, according to the cited data series. While the broader narrative points to export growth in FY27’s first quarter, monthly deficits remain sensitive to the import mix and commodity prices.

The reporting set also flags that trade gaps can widen quickly when bullion and energy-related imports rise. This pattern becomes clearer when looking at September data, where the deficit moved sharply higher despite export growth in goods.

June trade update: deficit narrows as imports fall

Official data for June showed merchandise exports at $15.14 billion, almost unchanged from $15.16 billion a year earlier. Imports declined 3.71% year-on-year to $13.92 billion. With exports flat and imports lower, the merchandise trade deficit narrowed to a four-month low of $18.78 billion.

In services, the estimates showed services exports at $12.84 billion in June, up from $18.67 billion in the same month last year. Services imports were valued at $17.58 billion, producing a services trade surplus of $15.62 billion. With services cushioning the gap, the overall trade deficit narrowed to $1.51 billion in June from $1.30 billion a year ago.

What officials said about the quarter’s performance

Commerce Secretary Sunil Barthwal said overall exports performance in the first three months of the current financial year was “remarkably strong” despite global uncertainties. The same briefing linked June’s export value impact to a fall in crude oil prices.

Cumulative exports of goods and services during April-June 2025 were estimated at $110.31 billion, up 5.94% compared with $198.52 billion in the corresponding period of the previous year. For the same April-June period, cumulative merchandise exports were $112.17 billion, compared with $110.06 billion a year earlier, marking 1.92% growth.

India-US trade: June jump in exports, quarterly strength

On the bilateral front, commerce ministry data showed India’s merchandise exports to the United States surged 23.53% to $1.3 billion in June. Imports from the US fell 10.61% to about $1.0 billion in the same month. For the April-June quarter of FY26, exports to the US climbed 22.18% to $15.51 billion, while imports rose 11.68% to $12.86 billion.

Separately, a Reuters data recap also put June exports to the US at $1.27 billion, describing them as up about 23% year-on-year, even as higher tariffs had been implemented since April. Across these datasets, the key point is consistent: the US remained India’s largest trading partner during the period referenced, and the export line held up better than many other goods categories.

China trade: higher flows on both sides

India’s trade with China also increased, with both exports and imports rising in the cited period. Exports to China jumped 17.18% year-on-year to $1.38 billion in June and rose 17.87% to $1.4 billion during April-June. Imports from China grew 2.48% to $1.51 billion in June and increased 16.33% to $19.74 billion for the quarter.

This combination points to stronger trade activity but also reinforces the structural challenge: import growth can outpace export gains in value terms, affecting the deficit even when exports rise.

September data shows how quickly deficits can widen

The September trade readout in the reporting set showed total goods exports growing 6.74% to $16.38 billion. But surging imports of gold, silver, and fertilisers pushed the trade deficit to $11.15 billion, described as the highest in over a year. Another cited datapoint put the merchandise trade deficit in September 2025 at $12.15 billion, with imports of $18.53 billion (up 16.7% year-on-year).

The same coverage noted that despite US tariffs, overall merchandise exports still grew moderately by 6.7% year-on-year in September 2025, helped by diversification beyond the US and sectors such as petroleum products. It also reported that exports to the United States dropped 12% in that September reference month, indicating how country-specific policy shifts can show up in bilateral lines even when the aggregate is steady.

Key numbers at a glance

Market impact: why the mix of goods and services matters

The latest monthly figures underline that India’s trade deficit is not only a function of export growth but also of import compression or expansion. In June, the decline in imports helped narrow the merchandise deficit to $18.78 billion even though exports were flat at $15.14 billion. In April, by contrast, a higher import bill kept the deficit wide at $18.2 billion despite exports rising 13.4% year-on-year.

Services are playing a measurable role in the combined picture. June’s services surplus of $15.62 billion helped reduce the overall trade deficit to $1.51 billion, even when goods trade remained in deficit. That pattern is consistent with FY26’s export split, where services exports of $121 billion were nearly as large as merchandise exports of $142 billion.

Longer-term context: exports have risen, but volatility remains

The reporting set also places India in a global context: in 2024, India exported $162 billion, making it the number 13 exporter in the world. Over the last five reported years, exports increased by $119 billion, from $143 billion in 2019 to $162 billion in 2024.

These longer-term gains help explain why the policy discussion has shifted to the $1 trillion milestone. But the month-by-month data also shows why the path is not linear. Deficits can narrow quickly when imports fall, and widen sharply when bullion and energy-related imports rise.

Conclusion: strong quarter narrative, watch upcoming monthly prints

India’s export narrative for FY27 began with the government stating 15% year-on-year growth in the first quarter and reiterating confidence in crossing $1 trillion in exports this fiscal year. Recent releases show that services strength and lower imports can sharply improve the overall trade balance, as seen in June.

The next set of monthly trade data will be important for tracking whether the quarter’s growth momentum is sustained, and whether import-driven swings in the deficit remain contained as commodity and bullion flows change.

Source: Ministry of Commerce and Industry, India