India GDP growth 7.7% in FY26; Q4 rises 7.8%: MoSPI

The headline numbers from MoSPI

India’s economy expanded by 7.7% in real terms in FY2025-26, according to provisional estimates released by the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI). The pace marks an acceleration from the 7.1% growth recorded in FY2024-25, based on the figures cited alongside the release. The same data set showed that momentum held up in the January to March quarter, with real GDP growing 7.8% year-on-year. The quarterly print was described as a moderation compared with the prior quarter, which was reported as being revised to around 8% in some coverage of the data. Even with that sequential cooling, the full-year number came in slightly above market expectations for a 7.6% expansion, as referenced in the reports accompanying the release. Nominal GDP, which captures output at current market prices, rose 8.9% in FY26.

FY26 GDP levels: real and nominal

MoSPI’s provisional estimates placed India’s real GDP (at constant 2022-23 prices) at ₹323.12 trillion in FY26, up from ₹299.89 trillion in FY25. In nominal terms, GDP was reported at ₹346.36 trillion for FY26, representing an 8.9% rise. The use of constant prices is meant to strip out inflation effects and reflect “real” growth, while nominal GDP moves with both real output and price changes. The release also reiterates that the GDP series is on a 2022-23 base year, which affects how levels and growth rates are compiled and compared over time. These are provisional estimates, meaning they may be revised as additional data becomes available.

Q4 FY26: January to March remained resilient

For the fourth quarter of FY26 (January to March), MoSPI estimated real GDP at ₹87.77 trillion, up from ₹81.40 trillion a year earlier, translating into a 7.8% year-on-year increase. Nominal GDP in the quarter was estimated at ₹94.65 trillion, up 9.1%. The year-on-year comparison indicates that growth in early 2026 stayed above the 7.0% expansion recorded in the year-ago quarter, as noted in the text. Reports around the release framed this as a stronger-than-anticipated quarter that helped lift the full-year outcome. At the same time, the quarter-on-quarter narrative varied across summaries, with references to growth being “unchanged” versus “slightly lower” than the preceding quarter, depending on the revision cited.

How FY26 compared with forecasts and advance estimates

The FY26 real GDP growth print of 7.7% was reported as higher than the Second Advance Estimate of 7.6% released in February. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) had also projected 7.6% growth for FY2025-26, according to the provided context. Separately, the Economic Survey 2025-26 cited an FY26 real GDP growth estimate of 7.4%, positioning consumption and investment as key drivers. Read together, the numbers highlight the difference between a statistical office’s provisional outcome and earlier projections published by policy institutions and the government’s survey document. The provisional estimate also reinforces the view, expressed in the coverage, that India maintained comparatively strong growth despite references to geopolitical risks, volatile energy markets, and an uncertain global environment.

GVA: the activity-side measure also stayed strong

The text also flagged Gross Value Added (GVA), a measure of underlying economic activity that excludes net indirect taxes and subsidies. GVA growth was reported at 7.9% in the January to March period, compared with a revised 7.3% in the previous quarter. For the full year, real GVA grew 7.9%, while nominal GVA expanded 9.1%. Because GVA strips out components that can be volatile, it is often used to cross-check the strength and breadth of growth signalled by headline GDP. In this release cycle, both GDP and GVA growth rates pointed to sustained momentum through FY26.

Putting FY26 in the recent growth context

The data and accompanying context placed FY26’s performance against a run of prior years. India’s GDP growth was cited as 6.5% in FY2024-25, 9.2% in FY2023-24, 7.2% in FY2022-23, and 8.7% in FY2021-22. FY26’s 7.7% therefore represents a rebound from FY25’s slower pace, while remaining below the FY24 surge. The broader framing in the text described India as the world’s fastest-growing major economy through much of this period, and also as the fastest-growing major economy among G20 peers in the referenced comparisons.

Why the base year and revisions matter

The narrative also referenced a “revamped” GDP series with 2022-23 as the new base year, replacing the earlier base. Base-year changes can alter measured growth for specific sectors and periods, as relative weights and deflators are updated. The text also noted that some quarterly figures were “upwardly revised,” highlighting how revisions can change sequential comparisons. For investors and policy watchers, the combination of a newer base year and ongoing revisions means the trend should be interpreted with an emphasis on broad direction rather than a single-quarter inflection.

What it means for policy watchers and markets

With FY26 growth now reported at 7.7%, the outcome sits close to the RBI’s cited projection of 7.6% and above the market expectation of 7.6% referenced in the coverage. That alignment reduces the gap between forecasts and outcomes, and gives policy watchers a clearer anchor on how the year ended. The reports also pointed to the economy sustaining momentum despite global uncertainties, which is relevant for assessing resilience in domestic demand conditions. Separately, the Economic Survey 2025-26 projected FY27 real GDP growth in the range of 6.8% to 7.2%, offering an official forward-looking band. The same survey also referred to a “Goldilocks” moment of 7.4% growth alongside 1.7% inflation, framing the macro backdrop in a specific way, though that description sits within the survey’s narrative rather than the statistical release.

Key figures at a glance

Conclusion

MoSPI’s provisional estimates show India’s real GDP growth accelerating to 7.7% in FY26, supported by a 7.8% expansion in the January to March quarter and an 8.9% rise in nominal GDP. The data also puts real GDP at ₹323.12 trillion for the year, with quarterly real GDP at ₹87.77 trillion in Q4. Compared with earlier projections, the full-year outcome came in marginally above the 7.6% expectation cited in the reports and the 7.6% projection referenced for the RBI. Next, investors and policy watchers are likely to track subsequent MoSPI revisions and how the Economic Survey’s FY27 growth band of 6.8% to 7.2% aligns with incoming quarterly data.