India GDP grows 7.8% in Q4 FY26, beats estimates

Provisional GDP print shows faster FY26 expansion

India’s economy grew 7.7% in FY2025-26, accelerating from 7.1% in the previous financial year, according to Provisional Estimates released by the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI) on Friday, June 5. The year-end print signalled firm momentum even as external risks were being watched closely. MoSPI’s release also showed the economy finishing the fiscal year on a stronger quarterly run-rate. For investors, the data matters because it shapes expectations on demand conditions, corporate earnings resilience, and policy settings.

Q4 growth rises to 7.8%, above poll estimates

Real GDP growth for the January-March quarter (Q4) was estimated at 7.8% year-on-year. That was higher than the 7% growth recorded in the year-ago quarter. It also beat the CNBC-TV18 poll estimate of 7.3%, as cited in the coverage. The Q4 number, while strong, was also described as lower than the 8% growth rate in the preceding quarter (Q3FY26), based on the same set of reports.

Constant-price output rises to Rs 87.77 trillion in Q4

In level terms, India’s real GDP at constant prices for the January-March quarter was estimated at Rs 87.77 trillion. This compares with Rs 81.40 trillion in the corresponding period of the previous fiscal year. The increase in constant-price output provides context beyond percentage growth, indicating a higher base of economic activity in the quarter.

Nominal GDP in Q4 estimated at Rs 94.65 trillion

Nominal GDP for the January-March quarter was estimated at Rs 94.65 trillion. The reports also put nominal GDP growth during the quarter at 9.1%. Nominal measures are closely tracked because they reflect the combined impact of real activity and price changes, and they influence tax collections and corporate revenue lines.

Full-year GDP revised higher versus earlier estimates

The full-year real GDP growth for FY2025-26 was placed at 7.7%. This was described as marginally higher than previous government estimates of 7.6% for the year. Separately, the statistics office was also reported to have revised FY26 growth upwards by 10 basis points from its February estimate to 7.7%. Together, these points indicate that the final-year momentum and updated data inputs led to a small upward adjustment.

Sectoral cues: services-led strength, solid secondary sector

The services sector was described as the primary engine behind the late-fiscal-year momentum. One report attributed the Q4 outperformance to a “services sector output boost,” along with strong new business inflows and robust export orders. On the supply-side growth estimates at constant prices for fiscal 2026, the secondary sector was estimated to grow 8.8% and the tertiary sector 9.3%.

Resilience amid West Asia risk and conflict concerns

The growth outturn came despite challenges linked to the West Asia crisis, as cited in the coverage. Some commentary also noted that experts had expected potential impacts from the US-Iran conflict to show up in headline numbers. Even with these risks in the background, the data showed the economy closing the year with a strong quarterly expansion.

What the level data says about FY26’s scale

Beyond quarterly levels, MoSPI’s data also placed FY2025-26 real GDP (at constant prices) at Rs 323.12 trillion, up from Rs 299.89 trillion in the previous financial year. The comparison helps frame the year’s expansion in absolute terms, not just as a rate. The same set of reports referenced a revised base year being used alongside these estimates.

Key numbers at a glance

Market impact and why this print matters

A Q4 print above polling estimates typically reinforces the view that domestic demand and government expenditure were supportive through the end of the fiscal year, as stated in the reports. The faster full-year growth versus FY25 also underlines the economy’s improved pace in FY26. At the same time, the mention of rising oil prices and supply-chain disruptions “clouding the outlook” highlights why markets may continue to track external shocks closely, even when headline growth is strong.

Conclusion

MoSPI’s provisional national accounts data shows India closing FY2025-26 with 7.8% real GDP growth in Q4 and 7.7% for the full year, an acceleration from FY25. The release also provides key level estimates for real and nominal GDP that investors use to gauge the economy’s scale. The next focus will be on subsequent revisions to the provisional estimates and how external conditions, including West Asia-linked risks, feed into future prints.