India quick commerce GMV to hit Rs 2 lakh cr by FY28

CareEdge sets a new size benchmark for q-commerce

India’s quick commerce (q-commerce) market could see its gross order value (GMV) scale sharply over the next three years, according to a report by CareEdge Advisory. The report estimates GMV at about ₹64,000 crore in FY25 and projects it to rise to around ₹2,00,000 crore by FY28. The outlook places quick commerce among the fastest-growing formats within India’s broader e-commerce landscape. CareEdge attributes the momentum to changing consumer behaviour that increasingly rewards speed and convenience. The report also points to enabling conditions such as stronger hyperlocal delivery networks and wider access to the internet and smartphones. For investors and operators, the key question is no longer whether demand exists, but how efficiently platforms can serve it.

GMV projected to nearly triple by FY28

CareEdge expects quick commerce GMV to rise from an estimated ₹64,000 crore in FY25 to nearly ₹2,00,000 crore by FY28. The projection implies a step change in order volumes and operating intensity across dark stores, last-mile logistics, and category expansion. The report frames the FY25 to FY28 period as a continuation of a rapid adoption curve rather than a mature growth phase. It also notes that the sector is likely to maintain strong double-digit growth in the coming years. The growth, as per the report, is expected to be driven by wider adoption and expansion of services in Tier II and Tier III cities. Improved delivery infrastructure and consumer preference for instant fulfilment are cited as core drivers.

FY22 to FY25: growth off a low base

CareEdge highlights how quickly the market has expanded from a small base. The report estimates that the industry grew from about ₹4,500 crore in FY22 to ₹64,000 crore in FY25. It also pegs the CAGR for FY22 to FY25 at 142%, underlining the scale of the ramp-up. Another data point in the report indicates that GMV in FY24 was about ₹30,000 crore, with FY25 more than doubling that figure to ₹64,000 crore. This trajectory matters because it shows quick commerce moving from a niche use case to more routine household ordering. It also raises the importance of unit economics and serviceability as volume scales.

What is powering demand: speed, convenience, and habit change

The CareEdge report links demand growth to a shift in consumer habits, where speed and convenience increasingly influence purchase decisions. Quick commerce platforms have built use cases around instant fulfilment, supported by dense hyperlocal networks. As delivery promises tighten, consumers tend to move more categories into fast-delivery baskets. The report also flags the role of infrastructure build-out, which makes smaller catchment areas viable for rapid delivery. A lower base effect is also cited as a factor behind the sharp growth rates in the early years. Together, these elements have helped quick commerce become a repeat behaviour rather than an occasional purchase channel.

Internet and smartphone access widen the addressable market

CareEdge points to expanding internet usage as an important enabler, citing about 806 million internet users by early 2025. Smartphone penetration, particularly in Tier II and Tier III cities, is highlighted as a key part of the expansion story. Wider connectivity increases the pool of consumers who can be targeted with app-first commerce and location-based fulfilment. It also supports higher ordering frequency, as discovery and reordering become frictionless on mobile. For platforms, a larger connected base can translate into broader geographic expansion, provided the delivery network keeps pace. The report’s emphasis on Tier II and Tier III adoption signals where incremental demand could increasingly come from.

Fee-based platform revenue is rising faster than GMV

Beyond GMV, CareEdge draws attention to how fee-based revenue streams have expanded. These earnings include convenience charges, commissions, advertising, and subscriptions, according to the report. Fee-based platform revenue is estimated to have risen from ₹450 crore in FY22 to ₹10,500 crore in FY25. CareEdge also notes this segment grew at a 186% CAGR during FY22 to FY25. By FY28, fee-based revenue is projected to reach ₹34,500 crore. For the industry, this is a critical indicator because it reflects monetisation improving alongside order growth.

FY25 to FY28: monetisation growth expected to stabilise

CareEdge projects fee-based revenue to grow from ₹10,500 crore in FY25 to ₹34,500 crore in FY28, implying a CAGR of about 26% to 27% over FY25 to FY28. That growth rate is lower than the early-stage surge, but still substantial in absolute terms. The shift suggests the revenue mix may increasingly rely on scaling established levers such as commissions and advertising, rather than only ramping new charges. It also places more focus on repeat users, category depth, and efficient fulfilment. The report’s framing indicates that monetisation is expected to remain a key pillar of the business model as the market expands.

Market impact: what the projections imply for the sector

The projections imply a larger operational footprint for quick commerce platforms, as GMV growth typically requires wider coverage and reliable last-mile service. With expansion expected in Tier II and Tier III cities, delivery network density and hyperlocal infrastructure become central execution variables. The report’s numbers also indicate that platform income streams could become meaningfully larger by FY28, as fee-based revenue rises alongside GMV. For the broader retail ecosystem, higher quick-commerce penetration can change consumer expectations around availability and delivery speed. For investors tracking listed ecosystem players and logistics-linked themes, the projections provide a quantified baseline for how large the segment could become, even though platform-level profitability is not addressed in the data shared.

Key numbers from the CareEdge report

What to watch as FY28 approaches

CareEdge expects the sector to sustain strong growth, led by adoption beyond metro markets and ongoing improvements in delivery networks. The key operational variable will be how platforms scale hyperlocal infrastructure while maintaining consistent service levels. Another watchpoint is how fee-based revenue evolves as a share of GMV, since the report notes this line has outpaced GMV growth in recent years. The FY25 to FY28 revenue CAGR guidance of 26% to 27% offers a reference point for how monetisation could progress if the market expansion continues as projected. As new cohorts of users come online in Tier II and Tier III cities, the market’s next phase may be defined by breadth of service and repeat ordering patterns.

Conclusion

CareEdge’s latest estimates place India’s quick commerce GMV at about ₹64,000 crore in FY25 and project it to rise to around ₹2,00,000 crore by FY28. The report also expects fee-based platform revenue to increase from an estimated ₹10,500 crore in FY25 to ₹34,500 crore by FY28. Key drivers cited include changing consumer preferences, stronger hyperlocal delivery networks, and wider internet and smartphone access, especially beyond large metros. The next milestones for the sector will be tracked through how quickly platforms expand coverage and how consistently fee-based revenue scales with GMV.