India rebases GDP, CPI, IIP: What changes in 2026

Why India is updating its core economic numbers

India is overhauling its national statistical system to align official data with the economy’s changing structure. The reforms are being led by the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI) and focus on improving accuracy, timeliness and credibility. Over the past decade, services have expanded, digital platforms have reshaped business activity, and formalisation has increased under the Goods and Services Tax (GST). Newer segments such as renewable energy and digital services have also gained prominence.

These shifts have raised the stakes for how quickly and how precisely official data captures production, consumption and price trends. MoSPI’s plan centres on updating the base years for key macro indicators and expanding the use of administrative and digital datasets. The government is also sharpening measurement for services and the informal sector, where data gaps have historically been larger.

GDP rebasing to 2022-23 and why the base year matters

A central feature of the modernisation drive is the revision of the base year for Gross Domestic Product (GDP) from 2011-12 to 2022-23. Rebasing is designed to make national income estimates better reflect current production patterns, consumption behaviour and price structures. MoSPI selected 2022-23 as a stable, post-pandemic period.

The overall framework of GDP estimation is stated to remain unchanged, but the underlying data inputs are being strengthened. New data sources are being integrated, including GST filings, e-Vahan vehicle registration data and the Public Financial Management System (PFMS). The intention is to improve both accuracy and detail, especially as the economy becomes more digitised and formal.

The revised GDP series is scheduled for release on February 27, 2026.

CPI rebasing to 2024 and what gets updated

MoSPI is also updating the base year for the Consumer Price Index (CPI) to 2024. The CPI rebasing is tied to updated spending patterns and changes in consumption behaviour across households. The revision draws on findings from the Household Consumption Expenditure Survey (HCES) 2023-24, which is used to refresh the consumption basket and expenditure weights for both rural and urban households.

The process has involved an expert group with representatives from the Reserve Bank of India, various ministries and academic experts, along with consultations with international organisations. The new CPI series is scheduled for release on February 12, 2026.

IIP rebasing to 2022-23 and changes in industrial coverage

The Index of Industrial Production (IIP), which tracks changes in industrial output, is being rebased to 2022-23. MoSPI has indicated that the updated IIP series will incorporate revised product baskets, new weights and improved industry coverage. The stated objective is to reflect technological and structural changes in industry.

The new IIP series is slated for release on May 28, 2026. MoSPI has also indicated alignment with the national accounts base-year update to improve consistency across major macroeconomic indicators.

Closing data gaps in services and the informal economy

A significant part of the reform agenda targets measurement issues in services and the informal sector, both critical for employment and output. To address gaps in the organised services segment, the National Statistical Office (NSO) conducted a pilot for the Annual Survey of Service Sector Enterprises (ASSSE).

For the unincorporated, informal non-agricultural sector, the Annual Survey of Unincorporated Sector Enterprises (ASUSE) has been strengthened. A key step is the introduction of Quarterly Bulletins on Unincorporated Sector Enterprises (QBUSE) from 2025, providing more frequent insights compared with traditional annual cycles.

Digital tools, AI, and tax data integration

India is also modernising the statistical pipeline through technology and broader datasets. Saurabh Garg, secretary of MoSPI and the chief statistician, said in an interview podcast with the IMF that India continues to rely on door-to-door surveys but has shifted to tablet-based data collection. The stated aim is to reduce delays and improve accuracy.

Garg also pointed to a growing ecosystem of alternative data and high-frequency indicators, describing them as supplementary inputs that can provide a different perspective on socio-economic conditions. India is exploring how e-commerce, scanner, mobile, satellite and other alternative datasets could be incorporated into official statistics. At the same time, Garg emphasised that official numbers remain relevant because they are built on scientific methods and standards that are internationally comparable.

Metadata, identifiers, and making datasets work together

To harmonise datasets across ministries, the government has created a registry of government datasets and developed a national metadata structure. It has aligned classifications with international standards and standardised unique identifiers for organisations and geographic locations. Garg said standardised identifiers help ensure datasets can be read together across agencies.

A reconciliation method has also been introduced to address discrepancies between administrative datasets. Alongside these infrastructure changes, MoSPI has launched new websites for the National Statistical Commission and the National Statistical Systems Training Academy, and portals dedicated to data innovation, internships and metadata.

What the IMF grades signal about the urgency

The IMF’s 2025 Staff Report on India retained a B grade for official statistics and a C grade for national accounts data, citing methodological weaknesses that “somewhat hamper surveillance.” The report highlighted long-standing issues such as coverage and granularity gaps and called for regular benchmark revisions and alignment with international norms.

In parallel, MoSPI has said it is preparing to incorporate revisions under the System of National Accounts (SNA) 2025 as it rebases GDP, with updated guidelines expected over the next couple of years. This linkage matters because base-year changes are not only about updating weights, but also about keeping methods aligned with evolving global statistical standards.

Key releases and reform milestones

Market impact: why investors and policymakers track these changes

For markets, base-year revisions matter because they can change how growth, inflation and industrial trends are measured and compared over time. With GDP, CPI and IIP being updated within a few months of each other in 2026, analysts will closely watch how new weights and baskets affect the interpretation of trend lines.

MoSPI’s emphasis on administrative datasets such as GST, and on improved services and informal sector measurement, also speaks to the kind of granularity investors often seek when assessing sectoral shifts. Separately, the push toward faster, more integrated datasets supports policymaking needs, especially where timely signals are necessary for fiscal and monetary calibration.

Analysis: what is structurally different in this modernisation cycle

This reform cycle is not limited to a routine rebasing exercise. The article outlines a broader system upgrade that combines base-year revisions with digitisation, metadata standards, reconciliation methods across administrative datasets, and experimentation with alternative data. The approach suggests an effort to reduce fragmentation in official statistics and increase cross-compatibility between datasets generated by different arms of government.

The timing also reflects the economy’s post-2011-12 transformation, particularly the expansion in services, the role of digital platforms, and formalisation under GST. If the integration of newer datasets and survey reforms improves coverage of fast-growing segments, it could narrow the “coverage and granularity gaps” flagged by the IMF for national accounts data.

Conclusion

India’s statistical modernisation is moving on multiple tracks: rebasing GDP to 2022-23, CPI to 2024 and IIP to 2022-23, while strengthening surveys and increasing the use of administrative and digital datasets. The reform package also includes new data infrastructure such as metadata frameworks and standardised identifiers to improve interoperability.

The key next milestones are the scheduled releases of the new CPI series on February 12, 2026, the rebased GDP series on February 27, 2026, and the updated IIP series on May 28, 2026.