India renewables: Grid bottlenecks strand 50 GW (2026)

India’s 50% non-fossil milestone meets a grid reality

India has crossed 50% non-fossil installed power capacity, helped by rapid solar and wind additions. But the ability to move this power from renewable-rich regions to demand centres is lagging, leaving usable generation lower than installed capacity suggests. Developers and grid operators are now grappling with congestion, curtailment, and uncertainty around how much new transmission actually increases real-world evacuation. The issue is most visible in Rajasthan, but similar constraints have been reported in Gujarat, Maharashtra and Tamil Nadu. Officials acknowledge the problem as a transitional challenge, but the financial impact is already visible in lost generation and stressed project economics. The pressure is also sharpening the debate on system flexibility and energy storage systems as essential infrastructure, not optional add-ons. The stakes are high because India is targeting 500 GW of non-fossil capacity by 2030 and Net Zero by 2070.

Three pressures shaping the power transition

India’s clean-energy push is increasingly shaped by three linked pressures: renewable curtailment, transmission delays, and the need for large-scale energy storage. Ghanshyam Prasad, chairperson of the Central Electricity Authority (CEA), said renewable capacity is expanding faster than the system’s ability to absorb it, creating localised curtailment in key hubs. He also noted that renewable absorption faces physical and operational constraints when demand growth slows or infrastructure lags. Developers say the result is simple: plants can be commissioned on time but cannot always inject power when the grid is congested. Temporary operating arrangements, rather than firm access, are becoming more common in constrained regions. Financial institutions are also monitoring curtailment risks, given their direct impact on cash flows and debt servicing.

Curtailment is no longer a rounding error

A January 2026 report by global energy think tank Ember said India curtailed 2.3 terawatt-hours (TWh) of solar power between May and December 2025. The curtailment reflected the grid struggling to handle rising daytime generation alongside weak demand growth. Developers told Down To Earth earlier that the Grid Controller of India has instructed some projects to curtail up to 48% of daily generation during constrained periods. These cuts are particularly painful because they occur during peak solar production hours, when plants would otherwise generate the most. In parallel, operational constraints on the broader system also matter. The article notes that legacy coal plants must maintain a minimum load of 55%, limiting how far they can ramp down during peak solar hours and adding to balancing challenges.

Rajasthan’s evacuation gap: capacity built, power stranded

Rajasthan illustrates how generation can outpace evacuation capacity. The state has 23 GW of renewable capacity but can only evacuate 18.9 GW, leaving over 4,000 MW of fully commissioned capacity unable to evacuate power during peak hours. Developers say this is not just a local inconvenience but a signal of structural planning and operational gaps. Under the Temporary General Network Access (T-GNA) mechanism, projects can inject power only when transmission is uncongested, making revenue uncertain even after commissioning. The concern extends beyond individual projects because prolonged shutdowns can also limit operation of stabilising equipment such as static VAR generators and harmonic filters, which stakeholders warn can affect grid stability.

Khetri-Narela line: why curtailment persisted after commissioning

Renewable energy developers in Rajasthan continued to face severe curtailment risks even after the 765 kV Khetri-Narela transmission line was commissioned on December 12, 2025. The issue was reviewed at a stakeholder meeting on December 15, 2025, where people briefed on the meeting said T-GNA projects faced almost 100% curtailment between 11 am and 2 pm. Grid India informed the meeting that before Khetri-Narela, around 3.8 GW of renewable capacity was permitted injection during peak solar hours under T-GNA. After the line’s commissioning, connectivity approvals for about 4.8 GW of renewable capacity were made effective by the Central Transmission Utility of India Limited (CTUIL). Yet around 4 GW of commissioned renewable capacity continued to face peak-hour restrictions, with injection allowed only during non-peak periods in a staggered manner.

Planning versus operations: CTU approvals, limited usable flow

Developers argue that a core problem is the disconnect between planning and operations. The Central Transmission Utility (CTU) plans corridors and allocates general network access (GNA) based on full projected capacity, with an example cited of 6,000 MW. But Grid India, as the operator, may permit only a fraction of that power to flow, with an example of 1,000 MW. This divergence creates a credibility problem for developers who invest based on CTU connectivity approvals but then find that physical infrastructure does not translate into usable capacity. The under-utilisation of existing assets is also highlighted. High-capacity 765 kV double-circuit corridors designed to carry around 6,000 MW are reportedly operated at only 600 to 1,000 MW, below 20% utilisation, leaving some newly commissioned renewable projects connected to the grid but unable to inject power.

What SPDA and developers flagged in Rajasthan

The Sustainable Projects Developers Association (SPDA) said Grid India data indicates the Khetri-Narela line added only about 600 MW of effective transmission margin. SPDA also said connectivity has been granted for around 5.2 GW of projects, but only about 4.4 GW is operational, with nearly 850 MW of connectivity revoked, suggesting that around 1.5 GW of margin should already be available. SPDA said the reasons for the current scale of curtailment remain unclear. Grid India cited multiple technical constraints limiting renewable evacuation from Rajasthan, including voltage oscillations at renewable energy complexes, low short-circuit ratios at pooling stations, loading constraints on the Bhadla-Bikaner 400 kV corridor, and high loading on the 765 kV Bikaner-Khetri line.

National transmission slippages and stranded capacity signals

The problem is not limited to one line or one state. A study cited from the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis and JMK Research & Analytics estimates that more than 50 GW of renewable capacity across India remains stranded due to transmission bottlenecks. Another datapoint in the article says that by August of the current fiscal year, only 1,998 circuit kilometres (ckm) of new transmission lines were commissioned against a target of 15,382 ckm, leaving an estimated 50 GW stranded. Separately, during 2024-25, only 8,830 circuit-kilometres were added against a target of 15,253, a shortfall of around 42%. India’s transmission build-out is also facing right-of-way challenges and execution constraints, and timelines may need to extend from roughly two years to as much as three years, as cited in the article.

What it means for project economics and investor confidence

Industry sources told Down To Earth earlier that at least 30 solar and wind projects faced curtailment between March and August 2025, with losses estimated at up to ₹700 crore. Developers warn that sustained curtailment poses a material risk to project viability and debt servicing, especially for projects still within their notified connectivity start dates but forced to operate under T-GNA because associated transmission systems were delayed. In Rajasthan, industry sources also flagged that nearly 4,300 MW of solar capacity faced complete daytime curtailment due to inadequate transmission infrastructure, putting projects worth about ₹20,000 crore at risk. The CEA chairperson noted that lenders are watching curtailment because it affects investment confidence in large-scale renewable deployment.

Solutions on the table: better visibility, fair curtailment, storage

Stakeholders have pushed for clearer, credible advance estimates of usable capacity from forthcoming assets, with regular updates as commissioning approaches. In Rajasthan, five transmission lines are expected to be commissioned over the next six months, but developers said there is limited visibility on incremental evacuation capacity and the T-GNA margin likely to open. Authorities agreed on action points such as sharing PMU data with affected developers to mitigate voltage oscillations, providing firm commissioning timelines for under-construction projects, and expediting upgradation of the Bhadla-Bikaner 400 kV line. Industry representatives also proposed short-term measures including a Special Protection Scheme, dynamic reallocation of unused GNA margins to T-GNA projects during low utilisation periods, and the use of Dynamic Line Rating to maximise real-time transmission capacity.

Key figures at a glance

Rajasthan timeline and operating constraints

Conclusion: installed capacity must become usable capacity

India’s renewable build-out has moved fast enough to cross major milestones, but transmission congestion and operational constraints are limiting how much clean power can actually be delivered. The Rajasthan experience shows how commissioning new lines does not automatically translate into usable evacuation, especially when planning assumptions and operational permissions diverge. With curtailment already measurable and project losses reported, developers are pushing for clearer visibility on effective transmission margins, equitable curtailment rules, and faster execution of grid upgrades. Over the next six months, several lines are expected to be commissioned in Rajasthan, and stakeholders are seeking credible estimates of the usable capacity these assets will unlock. The direction of travel is clear in the article’s framing: without tighter coordination between planning and operations and a faster push on storage and grid management, renewable capacity additions will continue to face avoidable bottlenecks.