India Steel Market: Output 164 MT, Demand 257 MT by 2033

India’s steel growth is standing out globally

India cemented its position as the world’s second-largest crude steel producer in FY25, with output of 164 MT. The data also highlights a relative shift in global momentum, as India was cited as the only top-10 steel-producing nation to deliver double-digit volume growth that year. In contrast, production was described as stagnating or declining across China, Japan, and the European Union. For investors and steel-consuming industries, the message is clear: India is increasingly the growth centre of the steel cycle.

The domestic outlook is being framed around a demand-led expansion rather than export dependence. Several projections in the note point to sustained consumption growth tied to housing, transport corridors, and industrial capex. At the same time, capacity additions and new product lines such as electrical steel are being positioned as responses to structural shifts in India’s energy and mobility systems.

FY25 output and the near-term volume trajectory

The report puts India’s steel market volume at 162 MT in 2025. It adds that market volume is expected to rise to 177.03 MT in 2026 and reach 273.88 MT by 2031, implying a 9.12% CAGR over 2026-2031. Separately, it describes apparent steel consumption rising from about 163.5 MT in 2025 to about 179.8 MT in 2026E.

For 2026 specifically, another set of estimates shows output increasing from 164.5 MT in 2025 to 180.3 MT in 2026, up 9.6% year-on-year, while apparent steel consumption rises from 163.1 MT to 179.3 MT, up 10.0% year-on-year. The framing suggests a slightly demand-driven balance in the near term, with incremental production largely absorbed by the domestic market.

Demand outlook: 144 MT to 257 MT by 2033

Domestic consumption is projected to climb from 144 MT in 2024 to 257 MT by 2033 at a 6.2% CAGR. The note links this to a USD 1,400 billion National Infrastructure Pipeline, the PMAY Urban 2.0 housing rollout, and the PLI 1.2 Specialty Steel scheme, which is said to be attracting USD 1.98 billion in fresh commitments.

Construction remains the dominant driver. One estimate in the text says construction accounts for roughly 60% of downstream demand, while another states building and construction absorbed 51.02% of finished steel in 2025 and is forecast to grow at a 9.84% CAGR. Either way, the common thread is that infrastructure and real estate are shaping demand more than any single manufacturing segment.

Capacity build and announced investments

Production capacity is described as being on track to hit 300 MT by FY30, aligned with the National Steel Policy 2017 vision. Another reference notes India’s current capacity at around 200 MT, underlining the scale of additions required. On the corporate side, JSW, Tata, and AM/NS India are cited as collectively announcing over USD 20 billion in greenfield investments.

There is also a reference to a JSW-POSCO joint venture under discussion, sized at 6 MTPA. While the outcome is not confirmed, the mention points to an industry environment where partnerships and large-scale projects are being evaluated to accelerate capacity.

Electrical steel: grid and EV demand becoming a steel theme

Electrical (silicon) steel is projected to grow at an 8.40% CAGR through 2033, supported by transmission expansion and EV adoption. In August 2025, JSW Steel and JFE Steel announced a joint investment of Rs 58.45 billion to expand cold-rolled grain-oriented (CRGO) electrical steel capacity to 350,000 TPA by FY28.

The rationale offered is direct: transformer and motor demand is rising alongside India’s renewable energy mission and the EV transition. The text also flags increasing demand for non-grain-oriented electrical steel in motors and generators, suggesting a broader shift in steel mix toward high-spec grades.

Flat steel and pricing: CRC premium over HRC

The India HRC and CRC market is forecast to grow at an 8.2% CAGR in revenue and 8.4% in volume through 2033. Domestic steel demand is reported at 132.74 MT in FY23, with a projection of 163.85 MT by FY25.

The text provides a clear late-2025 price snapshot that highlights the premium nature of cold-rolled products. CRC was quoted at Rs 53,300-57,800 per tonne versus HRC at Rs 47,000-49,500 per tonne. It also notes that HRC demand is accelerating in solar mounting structures and wind tower fabrication, aligned with India’s 500 GW renewable energy target.

Long products: roads, corridors, and per-capita headroom

India’s steel rods and bars market is projected to grow at a 4.1% CAGR through 2033, reflecting its link to construction activity. Long products such as rebars and wire rods are tied in the text to projects including the Delhi-Mumbai Industrial Corridor and an aim of 200,000 km of national highways by 2025.

A longer-term metric in the report is the per-capita consumption target. It cites a push toward 160 kg per-capita steel consumption by FY31 from 100 kg “today”, and separately states per-capita finished steel consumption at 103.31 kg in 2024 versus a 214.7 kg global average and 601.1 kg in China. That gap is used to argue that India remains “under-steeled,” leaving room for multi-year demand expansion.

Key figures snapshot

Why this matters for Indian markets

For listed steelmakers and downstream users, the most important signal is the breadth of demand drivers: infrastructure pipeline spending, housing, renewables, and EV-linked equipment. The report’s 2026 balance narrative, where consumption growth is slightly faster than output growth, implies that capacity utilisation could remain supported if projections hold.

The shift toward value-added steel is another recurring theme. Electrical steel, CRGO capacity additions, and the CRC price premium point to margin sensitivity around product mix, not just volume. Regional references also matter: North India is described as having the highest share due to Delhi-NCR, Gurgaon, and Ludhiana, while Odisha, Jharkhand, and Chhattisgarh are highlighted as emerging integrated mill cost leaders.

Conclusion

India’s steel story in the provided data is defined by two linked trends: rapid domestic demand expansion and an active capacity buildout aimed at meeting that demand with more specialised products. FY25 output of 164 MT, consumption projections of 257 MT by 2033, and a policy-linked capacity target of 300 MT by FY30 together frame a multi-year upcycle driven mainly by construction and infrastructure. Near-term focus is likely to remain on execution of announced capex, progress on electrical steel capacity by FY28, and how construction-led demand holds up as volumes scale toward the 2031 projections.