India’s Russian crude bill tripled in March 2026

What changed in March

India became the second-largest buyer of Russian fossil fuels in March 2026, importing Russian hydrocarbons worth EUR 5.8 bn, according to the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA). The data points to a sharp rebound after earlier caution by some Indian buyers amid sanctions pressure and shipping risks. CREA said India’s total crude imports fell 4% in March, but imports from Russia doubled, underlining a shift in the sourcing mix rather than a broader increase in overall crude intake.

The rise was driven by two forces moving together: more barrels arriving and a higher price environment. CREA also tied the jump to market stress after the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a key global oil transit route. The March spike matters for Indian refiners and investors because it affects feedstock costs, refining margins, and product export economics.

CREA’s headline numbers on India’s Russian purchases

CREA’s split of India’s Russian fossil fuel imports shows crude dominating the basket. Crude accounted for EUR 5.3 bn, or 91% of India’s March purchases from Russia. Coal and refined oil products were much smaller components.

In value terms, India’s Russian crude import bill rose from EUR 1.4 bn in February to EUR 5.3 bn in March. CREA said volumes also doubled, indicating the move was not just price-driven.

State-owned refiners led the rebound

CREA described the “biggest shift” as coming from state-owned refiners. Their purchases of Russian crude jumped 148% month-on-month and were 72% higher than March 2025. CREA said this was “presumably due to Russian barrels being more available in the spot market”, which it described as the main source of imports for these buyers.

Two state-owned refineries, New Mangalore and Visakhapatnam, had stopped importing Russian crude at the end of November 2025, but purchases resumed in March 2026. The restart is important because state refiners typically represent steady domestic throughput and influence broader procurement patterns.

Private refiners increased buying, but at a slower pace

Private refiners also raised Russian crude buying in March, but the increase was more modest than for state-owned refiners. CREA reported private purchases were up 66% month-on-month, yet still below last year’s level.

This split suggests the March rebound was not uniform across the sector. It also indicates that procurement decisions were likely influenced by a mix of spot availability, compliance risk appetite, and logistics constraints.

Price shock: Urals rises, discount narrows

CREA linked the value jump to higher prices following the Strait of Hormuz disruption. It said Urals crude rose 67% to USD 94.5 per barrel in March, which it noted was more than double the updated price cap of USD 44.1 per barrel.

The report also said the discount on Urals halved to USD 6.4 per barrel below Brent. A narrower discount can change the economics for Indian refiners that had benefited from wide differentials earlier in the Russia-Ukraine war period.

US waiver and the return of paused buyers

CREA said the higher March volumes also followed a one-month waiver granted by the United States on Russian oil. The waiver covered cargoes already at sea and shipments on previously sanctioned vessels.

The stated aim was to ease energy prices after they spiked during the conflict involving the US and Israel waging a war against Iran. CREA said the waiver led state-run oil marketing companies, which had earlier paused Russian purchases, to resume imports from Moscow.

Asia remains Russia’s main outlet

CREA’s buyer-share chart shows China at 51% of Russia’s crude exports since December 5, 2022, and India at 38%. It also said Russia is “heavily reliant on Asian markets to sell its oil”, noting that 90% of Russia’s total crude exports in Q1 2026 went to China and India.

In CREA’s framing, this makes India a structural buyer rather than only a spot-market opportunist. For markets, that implies Russian barrels can continue to find demand even as sanctions and attacks on export infrastructure add pressure.

What ship-tracking data showed in March

Separately, PTI cited ship-tracking data showing India bought about 1.5 million barrels per day (bpd) of Russian oil in March, up from 1.04 million bpd in February. Another PTI datapoint said India’s Russian oil purchases rose by nearly 45% in March, from around 1.0 million bpd in February to 1.5 million bpd in the first 11 days of March.

The same reporting linked the rise to uncertainty and delays in Gulf supplies as Hormuz transits were disrupted. It also said India’s crude imports fell from about 5.2 million bpd in February to 4.5 million bpd in March.

Key figures at a glance

Market impact

For Indian downstream companies, the March move highlights two competing forces. Higher Russian volumes can help offset shortfalls from other routes when logistics are disrupted, but the rise in Urals prices and the narrowing discount can raise the effective crude cost base. CREA’s data indicates the bill increase was driven by both higher prices and higher volumes, which can influence near-term working capital needs and inventory decisions.

The month also underscored how policy actions can quickly change trade flows. CREA’s linkage between the US waiver and the return of paused state buyers shows that compliance constraints and shipping availability can affect procurement as much as headline pricing.

Analysis: why the March rebound matters

CREA’s broader message is that demand from buyers such as India remains sufficient to keep Russian crude moving, even when sanctions and infrastructure risks create friction. The dependence of Russia’s exports on China and India, as stated by CREA, raises the significance of Asian procurement decisions for global balances.

For India, the combination of a disrupted Hormuz route, a waiver window, and a sudden price jump created conditions for a rapid reshuffle in crude sourcing. The differing pace between state and private refiners suggests that market access and sourcing channels, particularly spot availability, played a central role in the rebound.

Conclusion

India’s Russian crude imports strengthened sharply in March 2026, with CREA reporting a rise in the crude bill to EUR 5.3 bn as volumes doubled and Urals prices climbed after Hormuz disruption. State-owned refiners led the jump after resuming purchases, while private refiners increased buying at a slower rate. The next key variable will be how procurement changes once the one-month US waiver period passes and as shipping conditions around Hormuz evolve.