IndiGo stock: Motilal Oswal sees 28% upside in 2026

IndiGo back in focus on brokerage upgrades

Shares of InterGlobe Aviation Ltd. (IndiGo) have remained in focus after domestic brokerage Motilal Oswal Financial Services reiterated a positive view on the airline. The brokerage cited strong passenger growth and what it described as structural tailwinds for India’s aviation sector. In multiple updates referenced in the provided text, Motilal Oswal maintained a ‘Buy’ rating while publishing different target prices at different points. One note pegged the target at Rs 5,600, implying about 28% upside from then-current levels. Another update cited a target of Rs 6,300, implying 22% upside from the previous close, while a separate upgrade note mentioned Rs 6,550, implying nearly 27% upside.

The common thread across these calls is a long runway for demand growth and IndiGo’s expansion roadmap. The brokerage commentary also points to IndiGo’s market leadership and its ability to sustain share over the long term, even if the stock sees intermittent volatility.

Passenger traffic outlook: doubling over FY26-FY35

Motilal Oswal’s thesis leans heavily on passenger growth expectations for the sector. The text states that domestic and international passenger traffic is expected to more than double between FY26 and FY35. Separately, the brokerage commentary also mentions domestic passenger traffic doubling by 2030, supported by rising income levels and government infrastructure spending that improves air connectivity.

Another data point cited is IndiGo serving around 10 crore customers today, with the expectation that this number could double by calendar year 2030. While the timeline references differ (FY26-FY35 and CY2030), both sets of estimates point to the same direction: a higher base of flyers over the next decade. For an airline, this matters because it underpins fleet deployment, network decisions, and the scope for international expansion.

Financial projections: revenue and EBITDAR growth through FY28

The brokerage expects strong operating leverage over the next few years. Estimates in the text suggest IndiGo could deliver revenue and EBITDAR CAGRs of 13% and 46%, respectively, between FY26 and FY28. Another note in the supplied material also says Motilal Oswal forecasts strong revenue and EBITDAR growth through FY28, driven by international network expansion and fleet growth.

Separately, a Motilal Oswal upgrade note (dated April 11, 2025 in the text) adds longer-range growth metrics, expecting a CAGR of 28% in EBITDA and 38% in PAT during FY25 to FY27. These projections sit alongside valuation references such as the stock trading at 20x FY26 expected EPS and around 9.7x FY26 EV/EBITDA, as per that note.

Valuation framework: 9x FY28 EBITDAR and 10x FY27 EV/EBITDAR

On valuation, the provided text references two benchmarks used by Motilal Oswal in different contexts:

• A target of Rs 5,600 based on valuing the stock at 9 times FY28 estimated EBITDAR.
• A later upgrade describing a valuation of 10x FY27 estimated EV/EBITDAR, paired with a target price of Rs 6,550.

These multiples matter because they show how the brokerage is linking the investment case to operating cash profitability (EBITDAR), a common metric for airlines given aircraft lease structures.

Stock moves cited across updates

The text contains multiple price snapshots. One line says InterGlobe Aviation’s share price moved up 1.02% from its previous close of Rs 4,405.00, with the stock last traded at Rs 4,449.50. Another line says that as on 01 Jun, 2026, 02:13 PM IST, InterGlobe share price was up 1.26% on the previous closing price of Rs 4,570, with the share price at Rs 4,460.20.

There is also a separate market update where the stock climbed as much as 3.8% to a 52-week high of Rs 5,345 on the BSE following a Motilal Oswal upgrade to ‘Buy’ and a raised target price of Rs 6,550. That same update says the shares had surged 42.5% over the past year, with a 12% gain in the last month and a 5.5% increase in the past week.

Fleet expansion and scale targets highlighted by the brokerage

A key operational pillar is fleet growth. One Motilal Oswal note cited in the text says IndiGo placed orders for 925 aircraft, set to be delivered by CY35, described as among the largest in global aviation history. The brokerage also highlighted scale ambitions for the end of the decade: a fleet of over 600 aircraft and 200 million passengers annually.

In another separate analyst-day summary included in the provided material, IndiGo management laid out FY24 guidance of 16-17% ASK growth year-on-year, 100 million total passengers, and fleet expansion to 350 aircraft. That note also says international could be a key growth area, with an aim of ASK share reaching 30% in two years versus 23% at the time.

How other brokerages are positioned

Beyond Motilal Oswal, the supplied text references other global broker views. A market note says Morgan Stanley maintained an “overweight” rating and saw a 22% upside over the next 12 months, citing global expansion and lower fuel prices. The same note says Jefferies reiterated “buy” and forecast a 27% year-on-year jump in Q4 profit, pointing to falling crude prices and a stronger rupee as tailwinds.

It also states that the average rating of 19 analysts tracking the stock is “buy” and the median price target is 5,475 rupees, according to data compiled by LSEG.

Key numbers at a glance

Market impact: why these calls matter for investors

The brokerage notes collectively frame IndiGo as a key listed proxy for India’s passenger growth cycle. The linkage is explicit in the provided text: passenger traffic is expected to more than double over FY26 to FY35, and IndiGo’s strategy is tied to adding aircraft and expanding its international network. Broker targets also show how sensitive valuation outcomes can be to assumptions around EBITDAR, fuel costs, and capacity deployment, reflected in the use of EV/EBITDAR and EBITDAR-based multiples.

The text also shows that investor attention is not only about fundamentals but also about near-term price moves. The same stock is referenced at levels around Rs 4,400 to Rs 4,460 in one set of updates and at Rs 5,345 at a 52-week high in another, underscoring how brokerage actions and market conditions can coincide with sharp movements.

What to watch next

Based strictly on the provided material, the key milestones to track are IndiGo’s progress on fleet induction against its large order book, and whether the passenger growth trajectory (doubling expectations by FY35 and CY2030) plays out as anticipated. Investors will also monitor how valuation frameworks evolve, as Motilal Oswal has referenced both FY28 EBITDAR multiples and FY27 EV/EBITDAR multiples in different notes.

A separate data point in the text is relative performance: IndiGo stock was down 12.6% so far in a month but up 13.2% in the calendar year, compared with a 10.5% gain in the Nifty50. That mix of short-term pullbacks and longer-term gains is likely to keep the stock active around future brokerage updates and company disclosures.