Infosys Q4 FY26 preview: PAT seen down 1.5% QoQ, revenue up

Results date and why this quarter matters

Infosys is expected to announce its January to March quarter (Q4FY26) results on Thursday, April 23, 2026. Expectations are centred on two things: a modest sequential movement in revenue and profit, and management commentary that sets the tone for FY27. The market is also positioning around how geopolitical uncertainty, including the Iran war, is influencing client decision-making. Another key thread is whether generative artificial intelligence (GenAI) is deflationary for traditional IT pricing and delivery, or supportive through new work and productivity. With the stock trading close to its 52-week low, guidance and commentary may matter as much as the reported headline numbers.

Street consensus: revenue up year-on-year, steady sequentially

Brokerages tracked by Business Standard estimate Infosys’ Q4FY26 revenue at an average of ₹46,567 crore. That implies year-on-year growth of about 13.7% from ₹40,925 crore in the year-ago quarter. On a quarter-on-quarter basis, revenue is expected to rise around 2% from ₹45,479 crore in Q3FY26.

Some brokerages have flagged seasonal factors that could temper reported momentum in US dollar terms. Kotak Institutional Equities expects a 1% quarter-on-quarter revenue decline in USD terms to $1.07 billion, mainly due to fewer billing days and seasonal weakness. The same note also points to otherwise stable revenue from the sale of third-party items.

Profit expectations: modest sequential dip, year-on-year gain

Net profit for Q4FY26 is estimated at an average of ₹7,508.6 crore, up 4% year-on-year from ₹7,218 crore. Sequentially, profit after tax (PAT) is expected to slip about 1.5% from ₹7,625 crore in Q3FY26, based on the Business Standard brokerage average.

On margins, brokerages broadly expect stability with specific cross-currents. Kotak expects margins to remain stable as the benefits of rupee depreciation are offset by higher visa costs. Motilal Oswal Financial Services also expects operating margin to remain flat despite performance bonus payouts and visa cost impact, citing Project Maximus cost initiatives and improving revenue per employee (RPE) as offsets. Emkay Global expects EBIT margin to expand 20 basis points sequentially, while Nuvama expects EBIT margin to remain flat quarter-on-quarter.

FY27 guidance is the key monitorable

Investors and analysts are expected to focus on FY27 guidance, as this is typically the most market-moving output from the Q4 event. In the brokerage expectations cited, guidance ranges vary. Motilal Oswal expects an initial FY27 revenue growth guidance band of 1.5% to 4.5% year-on-year in constant currency. Emkay expects Infosys to guide 2% to 5% constant currency year-on-year revenue growth (including Versent, but excluding Optimum and Stratus) and EBIT margin of 20% to 22%. Nuvama expects FY27 organic revenue growth guidance of 2% to 5% constant currency year-on-year and margin guidance of 20% to 22%.

Kotak’s expectations also include a guidance view: analysts believe Infosys will guide for 3% to 5% growth in revenues including the Versent acquisition, and 2.25% to 4.25% on an organic basis. Kotak also estimates the hurdle rate to achieve the revenue growth guidance at a compound quarter growth rate (CQGR) of 1.2% to 1.9% (0.8% to 1.6% on an organic basis).

Iran war and GenAI deflation: what management may address

Among the explicit items being tracked are the impact of the Iran war and GenAI-linked deflation on growth prospects. Investors will also watch for commentary on discretionary spending, the flow of smaller deals, and client technology budgets for calendar year 2026 amid macro and geopolitical uncertainty. Demand commentary is expected across verticals including BFSI, hi-tech, manufacturing, retail, and communications.

Motilal Oswal expects US BFSI to remain resilient with some pockets of discretionary spend. It also flags manufacturing as impacted by tariff uncertainty and delayed decisions, while West Asia is described as weak due to war-related uncertainty. These points may shape how investors interpret the FY27 outlook.

Deal pipeline, large transformation work, and Project Maximus

Another set of monitorables relates to deal activity and execution choices. Investors are expected to track large deal intake and the share in net new deal intake. Management’s willingness to take up large transformation programmes that can be margin-dilutive initially is also on the watchlist.

Kotak expects a large deal of total contract value (TCV) of $1.5 billion to $1.75 billion. Separately, investors will look for updates on the incremental benefits from Project Maximus and on the percentage of programmes that have moved from proof-of-concept (PoC) to production.

Stock near yearly low: levels traders are watching

Ahead of results, Infosys was reported trading at ₹1,250.60, down 1.50%, with the stock hovering close to its 52-week low of ₹1,215.10. The stock was also described as trading near a pivot level of ₹1,253. On the upside, resistance levels were placed at ₹1,263 and ₹1,275. On the downside, immediate supports were cited at ₹1,240 and ₹1,230. The reported weakness was linked to caution ahead of the Q4 results, where IT services stocks tend to react to commentary on demand, deal pipelines, and margin outlook.

Sector backdrop: subdued demand and currency effects in focus

The broader Indian IT sector is entering the Q4 earnings season with Tata Consultancy Services starting on April 9, 2026, followed by Infosys and other peers through the reporting cycle. Investor sentiment has been weak in recent months, with the Iran war referenced as contributing to energy shocks and macro uncertainty.

In a wider sector preview, Nifty IT was reported down 20% so far in 2026, while the Nifty 50 was down 13%. The Indian rupee fell 4% against the US dollar during the March quarter and slipped to record low levels, placing more weight on constant currency performance as a cleaner indicator of demand. The IT services sector was cited at $115 billion and employing about 5.9 million people. For the top six firms (TCS, Infosys, HCLTech, Wipro, Tech Mahindra, and LTM), revenue was expected to grow about 10.9% year-on-year in the March quarter, with net profit rising 10.3%.

Key numbers to track

Near-term price levels cited

Conclusion

Infosys heads into its April 23, 2026 Q4FY26 result with brokerages expecting year-on-year growth in both revenue and profit, but modest sequential pressure on PAT. The more important trigger is FY27 guidance and the tone on discretionary spending, deal ramp-ups, margins, and how the Iran war and GenAI-related concerns are affecting client behaviour. With the stock near its yearly low and the IT earnings season already underway from April 9, management commentary is likely to set near-term sentiment for Infosys and the broader sector.