Iran-US talks 2026: Draft MoU progress, key risks

What Iran and the US are signalling now

Iranian state media reported that Tehran sees increasing convergence in its talks with the United States, even as significant differences remain unresolved. The same reporting said Iran’s nuclear programme is not part of the initial framework currently under discussion. In parallel, Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei has said negotiators have reached conclusions on a large portion of topics, but he stressed that a final agreement is not imminent. The messaging from both sides points to incremental progress, not a signed deal.

The developments matter because the talks are being framed around ending the war, with shipping and regional security issues in the background. While officials have described movement toward a preliminary framework, each side is also highlighting unresolved points, which can slow timelines and raise the risk of reversals.

Iran’s position: progress, but “no guarantees”

Baghaei said Iran and the United States have reached a conclusion on a large part of the issues under discussion. But he cautioned that no one can credibly claim that signing an agreement is imminent. He also accused Washington of shifting its positions, reinforcing Tehran’s argument that the process remains fragile.

A central theme in Baghaei’s remarks is mistrust of US follow-through. He said there are “no guarantees” the US will honour its commitments to a potential deal. He also said Tehran does not care about “threats,” and that Iran will continue pursuing what it sees as its national interests and respond when necessary.

What the draft MoU reportedly covers, and what it does not

Iran has indicated negotiations are moving closer to a draft memorandum of understanding (MoU) after weeks of indirect exchanges. Baghaei said progress has been made in narrowing disagreements, but substantial gaps persist, particularly around the scope and sequencing of commitments.

A key detail highlighted in reporting is that nuclear details are not being discussed at this stage. Baghaei said the focus is on ending the war, and that discussions on the nuclear issue would take place only if a memorandum of understanding with the United States is finalised. Iranian state media also said Iran’s nuclear programme is not part of the initial framework.

Washington’s tone: “proceeding nicely,” but not finished

US President Donald Trump said negotiations with Iran were “proceeding nicely,” while warning the talks would either produce a “great deal” or collapse. He also warned that failure could lead to a return to military confrontation “bigger and stronger than ever before.” In other comments, Trump said the outlines of an agreement remain unfinished and that a deal has not been “fully negotiated yet.”

Trump also said negotiators should not “rush,” indicating that major items remain open. The combination of optimism and conditional warnings suggests the US is trying to maintain negotiating leverage while signalling progress.

Rubio’s remarks from India and the Strait of Hormuz focus

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, speaking during a visit to India, said the US has made “significant progress” in outlining a path to resolve the war over the past 48 hours. Rubio also called an Iran deal a “work in progress,” while signalling confidence that disruption to shipping in the Strait of Hormuz can be addressed.

Rubio added that “some progress” had been made on an outline that could resolve the Strait of Hormuz situation, while stressing negotiations were ongoing. The repeated references to Hormuz underline how maritime security and energy shipping lanes remain central to market attention.

Interim structure under discussion: a two-step approach

A senior US administration official said the US and Iran are making progress ironing out a two-step interim agreement. Under that approach, the US would seek a broad “commitment” from Iran to negotiate a removal of its stockpile of enriched uranium. This detail indicates that while nuclear issues are described as outside the initial framework from Iran’s side, nuclear-related commitments may still sit in the wider negotiating architecture discussed in US briefings.

At the same time, the reporting emphasises that key elements remain under negotiation. A senior official cited by CNN also said a formal agreement is not expected to be signed, as talks over key draft elements continue.

Remaining sticking points and reported clause-level disputes

Iran’s semi-official Tasnim news agency reported that disagreement over two or three clauses persists in the MoU. The same reporting said differences remain between Iran and the United States over a few provisions. Baghaei’s comments about “substantial gaps” and sequencing disputes align with this clause-level picture, even if neither side has publicly detailed the specific provisions in dispute.

These unresolved clauses are important because they can become conditions precedent for implementation. Even a largely agreed framework can stall if each side insists on different ordering of commitments.

Market and India relevance: oil routes and risk pricing

For Indian investors, the immediate linkage is the Strait of Hormuz and broader regional stability, because shipping and insurance costs are sensitive to escalation risk. The reporting includes Rubio’s explicit reference to addressing potential disruption in Hormuz, keeping the shipping corridor a focal point for energy markets and trade flows.

The article’s content does not include any confirmed changes to sanctions, supply volumes, or prices. But it does show that both sides are tying the talks to ending the war, while keeping contingency language on the table. That combination often sustains risk-sensitive monitoring across commodities, shipping, and related sectors.

Key facts at a glance

Why the “framework first” approach matters

The repeated emphasis on a draft MoU suggests negotiators are trying to lock in principles and sequencing before moving to more sensitive or technical issues. Iran’s line that nuclear discussions come only after an MoU is finalised sets a clear negotiating structure and may be intended to prevent early concessions.

But the same structure can elongate the timeline, since clause-level disputes in the MoU can delay entry into the next phase. Baghaei’s warning that a deal is not imminent, combined with Trump’s statement that the outlines are unfinished, underscores that the process remains in a drafting and bargaining phase.

What to watch next

Based on the statements cited, the next milestones would be whether the parties finalise the MoU language and whether the remaining clauses flagged in Iranian reporting can be resolved. Separately, any further official clarification on the sequencing of commitments could indicate how close the parties are to moving from framework to implementation steps.

For now, both sides are publicly balancing progress with caution: Iran is highlighting mistrust and non-imminence, while the US is describing forward movement but warning of collapse if talks fail. The next round of official briefings is likely to shape expectations on whether the draft MoU can be concluded or remains under negotiation.