Iran war: 10-day Lebanon ceasefire boosts weekend deal odds

Iran war outlook shifts after Lebanon ceasefire

A 10-day ceasefire between Lebanon and Israel went into effect on Thursday, while US President Donald Trump said the next meeting between the US and Iran may take place over the weekend. Together, the developments added to market and political optimism that the Iran war could be nearing an end. Trump told reporters outside the White House that Iran had offered not to possess nuclear weapons for more than 20 years. He added that Washington was “very close” to making a deal with Tehran, and later said at an event in Las Vegas that the war “should be ending pretty soon.” The war with Iran began on February 28 with a US-Israeli attack, according to the update, and has killed thousands. It has also sent oil prices surging, creating a major political headache for the US president. Even as the rhetoric turned more optimistic, multiple officials and sources across the US and Iran signalled that core issues remain unresolved.

What Trump said about talks and a possible deal

Trump said talks could resume this weekend and described prospects for a deal with Iran as “looking very good,” according to Bloomberg. He also told Axios he expected a deal within “a day or two.” In a separate remark, he said that if a deal is reached and signed in Islamabad, he might travel there, saying, “They want me.” Trump also claimed, without providing evidence, that Iran had agreed to give up enriched uranium believed buried from US-Israeli airstrikes last year. Later reporting added another claim attributed to Trump, that Iran has agreed to suspend its nuclear program indefinitely and would not receive any frozen funds from the US, according to Bloomberg News. Those statements landed amid a wide mix of signals from negotiators and officials on both sides. The net effect is a negotiating picture that appears active and fast-moving, but not yet settled on the most sensitive nuclear and sanctions details.

Iran’s pushback on uranium transfers and core differences

Iran publicly rejected at least one of the US president’s central assertions. Iran’s foreign ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei told state TV that Iran’s uranium “is not going to be transferred anywhere,” contradicting Trump’s insistence it would be handed over. A senior Iranian official told Reuters that “no agreement has been reached on the details of the nuclear issues,” adding that serious talks are needed. Reuters also reported that the US proposed last weekend a 20-year suspension of all Iranian nuclear activity, while Tehran suggested a halt of three to five years. The same set of reporting underscored that the dispute over Iran’s nuclear program remains unresolved even as both sides talk about extending or shaping a truce. These denials and competing timelines matter because the uranium stockpile, enrichment limits, and enforcement steps tend to be the mechanical core of any durable agreement.

Mediation through Pakistan and the Islamabad track

Pakistan’s role as a mediator featured repeatedly in the updates. Reuters cited a diplomatic source saying Pakistan army chief Asim Munir, described as a key mediator, had managed to get a breakthrough on “sticky issues” after being in Tehran on Wednesday. Trump said he may go to Islamabad if a deal is signed there. Separately, Trump posted early Sunday that he was sending representatives to Pakistan for another round of negotiations with Iran, and CBS News sources said Vice President JD Vance, special envoy Steve Witkoff and presidential son-in-law Jared Kushner would travel to Islamabad for the talks. White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said negotiations were “productive and ongoing” and that US-Iran talks were “very likely” in Pakistan, while also saying the US had not formally requested a ceasefire extension.

Lebanon ceasefire tensions: Trump, Netanyahu, and Israel’s positions

The Israel-Lebanon ceasefire quickly became a point of friction and messaging. Trump said in a Truth Social post at 8 pm that the US has “prohibited” Israel from bombing Lebanon, a day after declaring a temporary ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu responded in a recorded address that Israel would continue “dismantling” Hezbollah, saying the job is not finished and pointing to “remaining rocket threat and the drone threat.” Israel’s Defense Minister Israel Katz said Friday that Israeli forces will hold all positions it “cleared and captured” in Lebanon, according to Haaretz. Separately, Israel has insisted its troops will remain in southern Lebanon. Iran welcomed the ceasefire in Lebanon, Iranian media reported, citing a statement by a foreign ministry spokesperson, but it also sought a full withdrawal of Israeli troops.

Iran rejects a temporary ceasefire and calls for an end to the cycle

Iran’s Deputy Foreign Minister Saeed Khatibzadeh said Tehran rejects a temporary ceasefire declared by Trump earlier this month. Speaking on the sidelines of the Antalya Diplomacy Forum in Turkey, he was quoted by Turkey’s state-run Anadolu Agency as saying, “We are not accepting any temporary ceasefire.” Khatibzadeh said the cycle of conflict “should end here once and for all.” The rejection highlights a key structural issue in the diplomacy: whether the conflict is paused briefly to negotiate, or ended with a more permanent set of security guarantees and withdrawals. A Pakistani security source told Reuters that Iran would open the Strait of Hormuz only if a permanent ceasefire is reached and there are United Nations guarantees that the US and Israel will not attack again in the future.

Strait of Hormuz and the US blockade as pressure points

The Strait of Hormuz remains central to the leverage on both sides. Iran’s parliamentary speaker said the strait will remain closed “if the U.S. does not lift the blockade,” according to the update. Another passage said Trump insisted Iran has agreed to never close the Strait of Hormuz again, while Iran’s foreign ministry said the strait would remain open only for the remainder of a ceasefire in Lebanon and threatened “reciprocal measures” if the US continues a military blockade. Separately, the update said the US blockade of Iran’s ports is in its second day as Washington pressures Tehran over the chokepoint used for shipments of oil, fertilizer and other commodities. Iran threatened retaliation and said no Gulf ports would be safe if the blockade continues, according to the “what to know” brief.

US military and economic warnings: Hegseth and Bessent

At the Pentagon, US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said Iran is moving military assets but is unable to replenish its military power almost seven weeks into the war, according to the Associated Press. He said, “You can move things around, but you can’t actually rebuild,” and warned Tehran the US is “locked and loaded” on dual-use infrastructure, power generation and the energy industry. Hegseth also said the US would maintain the blockade “for as long as it takes,” and warned that threatening commercial ships “is not control, it’s piracy.” In parallel, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent warned the US is preparing to ramp up economic pain through secondary sanctions on institutions doing business with Iran, calling it the “financial equivalent” of the bombing campaign. Iran’s foreign ministry described the remarks as “economic terrorism” and “state-sponsored extortion,” saying such rhetoric undermines mediation efforts.

Key negotiation items: uranium, sanctions, frozen funds, and guarantees

Reuters reported two Iranian sources saying a compromise may be emerging on Tehran’s stockpile of highly enriched uranium, with Iran considering parting with some, but not all, of its stockpile out of the country. The same Reuters thread said Washington was offering to lift sanctions and unfreeze “trillions of dollars’ worth” of Iranian assets to secure a deal, according to a Pakistani security source. Axios reported the US was considering releasing $10 billion in frozen funds in return for Iran giving up its stockpile of enriched uranium, citing two US officials and two other sources. At the same time, another update said Trump now claims Iran will not receive any frozen funds from the US, according to Bloomberg News, illustrating a gap between reported proposals and political messaging. Iran also raised war reparations in talks in Islamabad last weekend, according to Iranian government spokesperson Fatemeh Mohajerani, as reported by IRNA.

Timeline of the latest developments

Why this matters for markets, including India

The update explicitly links the Iran war to a surge in oil prices, a channel that matters for global inflation expectations and energy-importing economies such as India. The status of the Strait of Hormuz and the US blockade increases uncertainty around the physical flow of oil and other commodities, even when diplomatic statements sound optimistic. For investors, the story is less about one statement and more about whether the talks in Islamabad translate into verifiable steps on uranium limits, sanctions relief, and durable ceasefire terms. Conflicting claims on uranium transfers and frozen funds show that negotiation details are still contested. Meanwhile, the Israel-Lebanon front remains tense, with Israel signalling it will hold positions in Lebanon and continue action against Hezbollah, even as the US says it is restraining strikes. With a two-week truce set to expire next week, according to the update, the next confirmed milestone is whether negotiators meet over the weekend and whether any extension or permanent terms are announced.

Conclusion

A 10-day Lebanon-Israel ceasefire and the prospect of weekend US-Iran talks have improved near-term hopes of de-escalation, but public contradictions over uranium transfers, sanctions relief, and the Strait of Hormuz remain. Pakistan’s mediation and the Islamabad channel appear central to the next phase of diplomacy. US officials continue to pair negotiations with military and economic pressure, while Iran signals it wants permanent terms and security guarantees rather than a temporary pause. The next key dates are the weekend talks referenced by Trump and the approaching expiry of the two-week truce mentioned in the updates.