Israel-Iran war: Oil jumps 5% as Hormuz risk rises

Fresh attacks reported around Baghdad

A security source said the U.S. embassy was struck as explosions were heard in Baghdad, according to Reuters. Separately, three drones targeted a U.S. facility near Baghdad Airport, with air defences activated, Reuters reported. The incidents added to a growing list of flashpoints across the region as the conflict continued to widen. While details on damage were not provided in the updates, the reports underscored persistent risks around diplomatic and military assets. The reports also came alongside wider market concerns tied to regional shipping and energy infrastructure. In recent weeks, the conflict has increasingly affected expectations around trade flows and security in key corridors.

Missile warnings and blasts heard in Israel

Blasts were heard from Jerusalem after warnings of Iranian missiles in northern Israel, AFP reported. Israel’s military said Iran had launched missiles towards the country, Reuters reported. The Israeli military also said it had detected missiles launched from Iran and that defensive systems were operating to intercept the threat in earlier updates. These alerts and interceptions have become a recurring feature as both sides report successive waves of attacks. The operational tempo has kept regional risk elevated, with investors watching for signs of spillover into critical infrastructure.

Israel signals campaign will continue

Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Saar said Israel would continue the war with Iran “until the mission is completed,” Reuters reported. Saar also said, “We have already won, Iran has been dramatically weakened,” according to Reuters. The statements signal Israel’s intent to sustain military pressure even as diplomatic calls for de-escalation grow louder. Israeli local media also reported that the military was checking if Larijani was killed, with no confirmation from Iran, Reuters said. Separately, Israeli military statements cited intensifying operations and boosting coordination with U.S. CENTCOM.

Strikes reported in Iran and across two fronts

The Israeli Air Force said it struck infrastructure linked to Iran in Tehran, Shiraz, and Tabriz, according to updates citing military statements. Another update said Israel launched simultaneous strikes in Tehran and Beirut, describing a major escalation across two fronts. The same stream also referenced strikes linked to Hezbollah in Beirut. These reports highlighted an expanding theatre of activity that goes beyond direct Israel-Iran exchanges, with Lebanon repeatedly mentioned as a target area in the updates.

Iran’s messaging, and the Strait of Hormuz focus

Iran urged states to condemn U.S.-Israel attacks, according to updates that referenced Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi’s communication with the U.N. Secretary-General. Araqchi said disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz cannot be addressed independently of the U.S.-Israeli war against Iran, according to his Telegram account cited in the feed. The Strait of Hormuz is a key route for global energy shipments, and any heightened risk there tends to feed quickly into oil pricing. The conflict-related narrative around Hormuz has been a central driver of market sensitivity through the current phase of escalation.

Oil jumps as investors price in supply-route risk

Oil prices spiked more than 5% as worries grew over Hormuz, AFP reported. The move reflects increased risk premia rather than any confirmed supply outage in the updates provided. Markets typically react sharply to perceived threats to shipping lanes, especially when the conflict involves state actors with reach across the Gulf. With repeated reports of strikes, drone activity, and missile launches, traders have been focused on the possibility of disruption to flows even if volumes remain unchanged day to day.

India watches LPG supply, output plan announced

India’s government flagged that the LPG situation is a concern and said it would have to look at all available energy options, according to an update attributed to a government official. In a separate update, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman said LPG output would rise 25% as the government boosts production. Operationally, the feed also noted that LPG vessel Nanda Devi delivered 45,000 metric tonnes of gas to Gujarat’s Vadinar coast. These details matter for Indian markets because LPG availability can influence household fuel costs and downstream logistics, particularly during periods of volatile freight and crude-linked pricing.

Diplomacy and aid: EU and China weigh in

European Union foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas urged an end to the Iran war and warned of global economic fallout, Reuters reported. She said the EU was engaging with all partners and that coordinated diplomatic efforts could strengthen the push for de-escalation. Separately, China announced emergency humanitarian assistance to Iran, Jordan, Lebanon, and Iraq, and said it would continue striving for a ceasefire and an early return of peace and stability, according to a post cited from China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesperson.

Humanitarian cost rises alongside military escalation

A World Food Programme official said an extra 45 million people are projected to suffer from acute hunger if the Middle East conflict persists through June, Reuters reported. Another update in the feed said the death toll had risen to more than 1,300 people in Iran, more than 1,000 in Lebanon, 15 in Israel, and 13 U.S. military members in the region as the war entered its fourth week. These figures point to the scale of the crisis beyond markets, with displacement, disrupted supply lines, and damage to civilian infrastructure increasingly part of the wider economic picture.

Key facts at a glance

Why this matters for Indian markets

For Indian investors, the immediate transmission channel is energy pricing and supply-chain stability. A sharp move in oil can affect inflation expectations, freight costs, and the outlook for oil marketing companies, aviation, and other fuel-intensive sectors. LPG availability is also closely watched because it has direct household and subsidy implications, and the feed included both a policy response on output and a reported cargo arrival at Vadinar. At the same time, the diplomatic and humanitarian updates underscore that the situation remains fluid, with no single development yet pointing to a durable de-escalation.

Conclusion

The latest updates combined reports of attacks near Baghdad, renewed missile warnings in Israel, and fresh comments from Israeli leadership indicating the campaign will continue. Oil’s more than 5% spike on Hormuz worries and India’s focus on LPG supply and production underline how quickly conflict risk is feeding into economic concerns. With the EU calling for an end to the war and China announcing emergency humanitarian aid, the next key signals for markets are likely to come from further official statements and any verified change in security conditions around major energy routes.