ITC shares hit 52-week lows: broker targets for 2026

What pushed ITC stock back into focus

Shares of ITC Ltd stayed under pressure as the stock moved closer to its 52-week lows amid concerns around cigarette taxation and near-term volumes. In one session highlighted by market participants, ITC was down nearly 1% to Rs 281.35, with its market capitalisation at about Rs 3.53 lakh crore. The sell-off has been steep compared with the previous year’s peak levels, keeping sentiment cautious even as several brokerages continue to see valuation support.

The latest weakness has been linked to a combination of factors that investors typically track closely for ITC: rural demand conditions, monsoon trends, the impact of excise and GST-related changes on cigarette pricing, and what those changes mean for volume growth and profitability. The stock’s decline has also brought technical levels into play, with some analysts pointing to key support and resistance bands.

Price action: from 52-week high to repeated lows

ITC’s 52-week high is cited at around Rs 428.50 to Rs 428.55, reached about a year ago. The stock has since fallen sharply, with one data point in the provided information stating it has tanked nearly 35% from that high. Another reference in the same set of notes says the stock is down 44% from its peak, underscoring how widely the fall has been discussed.

On the downside, the stock has been hovering close to its 52-week lows. One reference places the 52-week low near Rs 275 to Rs 275.05, while another sequence shows multiple fresh 52-week lows over four straight sessions: Rs 286 (May 29), Rs 278.40 (June 1), Rs 277 (June 2) and Rs 272.25 (June 3). In the current session mentioned, ITC fell 1.66% to a low of Rs 275.25, with market cap around Rs 3.48 lakh crore.

Tax changes and pricing: why volumes are a key worry

The pressure has followed steep tax hikes on cigarettes, with references to the new “GST 2.0” regime and a significant increase in the overall indirect tax burden on cigarette manufacturers. ITC has also taken significant price hikes due to the sharp increase in GST and excise duty, which brokerages and analysts expect could impact volumes.

This is a familiar trade-off for cigarette companies. Higher taxes often require higher prices to protect profitability, but repeated price hikes can lead to downtrading, reduced consumption, or shifts toward illicit competition. In this context, one brokerage note highlighted that pricing flexibility may be constrained, and that ITC’s near-term trajectory could be shaped by a volume-versus-margin trade-off.

Brokerage calls: targets cluster around Rs 300 to Rs 355

Brokerage views remain divided, with targets spanning a wide band. One brokerage said it values ITC on a sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) basis with a target price of Rs 310 and an ‘add’ rating, while flagging key risks such as lower-than-expected cigarette volume growth, higher-than-expected raw material inflation, and weaker-than-expected monsoon.

Another brokerage maintained a more cautious tone with a ‘hold’ rating and a target price of Rs 310. It expects cigarette volume decline of 8-10% in 1H27 and a sharp net-realisation decline in 1Q27, leading to FY27 volume decline of 5% and net sales decline of 11%.

Among other firms mentioned, BoB Capital Markets has a ‘buy’ rating with a target price of Rs 355. PL Capital has a ‘sell’ tag with a target of Rs 302. Motilal Oswal has a ‘neutral’ rating and Axis Direct has a ‘hold’ rating, with target prices of Rs 300 and Rs 325, respectively.

Motilal Oswal’s near-term caution and volume assumptions

Motilal Oswal Financial Services stayed cautious after the steep tax hikes, even while acknowledging that some positives like improving FMCG performance and paperboard margin normalisation exist. Its note said these positives are overshadowed by a cigarette earnings headwind linked to illicit competition, limited pricing flexibility, and the near-term volume-versus-margin trade-off.

Motilal expects cigarette volume to decline 10% in FY27 and remain flat in FY28. It also models a negative EBIT CAGR of about 8% for the cigarette segment over FY26-28E. The brokerage maintained a ‘neutral’ stance with a target of Rs 300, implying nearly 6% upside from the cited previous close of Rs 283.25.

A valuation reference in the provided text also notes that FY28 forward ITC is expected to trade at around 15 times price-to-earnings.

Technical levels: support near Rs 280, resistance at Rs 310

Technical analysts cited clear price levels that traders are watching. Jigar S Patel from Anand Rathi said support is placed at Rs 280 and resistance stands at Rs 310. A decisive breakout above Rs 310 could open the door for further upside towards Rs 330, while in the short term the stock is expected to trade within the Rs 280 to Rs 330 range.

Hitesh Tailor, Technical Research Analyst at Choice Broking, said ITC was trading around 288 and continues to show weakness on the weekly chart. He noted the stock is trading below its key 20, 50, 100 and 200 week EMA levels, pointing to a negative medium- to long-term trend structure. On the downside, he flagged potential pressure toward the Rs 270 to Rs 260 zone.

Other broker targets: wide dispersion remains

The longer list of targets reinforces the split between valuation support and near-term regulatory headwinds. Systematix is cited with a ‘Hold’ rating and a target price of Rs 355 in one section of the text. Antique Broking has assigned a target of Rs 408. Sharekhan remains constructive with a target of Rs 400. Global brokerage UBS reiterated a ‘Buy’ rating with a target of Rs 395.

There were also targets from other global and domestic firms mentioned: Morgan Stanley has an equal-weight stance with a price target of Rs 346, while Goldman Sachs cut its target to Rs 330 from Rs 385 earlier. CLSA retained an ‘Outperform’ rating but trimmed its target by 24% to Rs 367 from Rs 485. Kotak Institutional Equities has a ‘Reduce’ rating with a price target of Rs 338.

Key numbers at a glance

Brokerage targets and ratings snapshot

Why the correction matters for investors

The current correction highlights how quickly taxation changes can alter the near-term outlook for cigarette manufacturers. The repeated references to excise and GST-driven price hikes, and the expectation of volume declines in FY27, show why investors are focused on the pace of demand adjustment and the risk of downtrading or illicit competition.

At the same time, the target-price dispersion suggests the market is balancing near-term earnings headwinds against the company’s diversified business profile and valuation arguments raised by some brokerages. For investors tracking the stock, the next signals to watch remain the impact of tax-driven pricing on volumes, the degree of realisation pressure noted by brokerages, and how the stock behaves around widely cited technical levels such as Rs 280 and Rs 310.

Conclusion

ITC shares have slipped toward fresh 52-week lows after steep tax hikes on cigarettes reignited concerns about volumes and profitability, even as brokerages continue to publish targets ranging from Rs 300 to Rs 408. Near-term focus remains on how pricing actions and tax changes flow through to volumes in FY27, and whether the stock stabilises around the support and resistance levels highlighted by technical analysts.