ITC share price slides: key broker targets in 2026

What happened to ITC stock on Friday

ITC Ltd shares were under pressure in Friday’s trade, falling 1.74% to ₹302.65. Another market update in the same stream put the last traded price around ₹302.50, down 1.81% from a prior close of ₹308.05. A separate snapshot said ITC was at ₹303.80 at 12:59 PM IST on 22 May 2026, down 1.38% from ₹307.55. Taken together, the prints show the stock trading weak through the session and hovering close to the psychological ₹300 level.

The decline also extends a broader correction. At ₹302.65, the stock was said to be down 25.01% over the past six months. Over a 12-month period, ITC’s share price was reported down 28.70%.

The six-month correction and why ₹300 matters

Beyond the day’s fall, commentary in the feed highlighted ₹300 as a key level from both technical and valuation perspectives. The view shared was that the stock could stabilise around ₹300, and that the risk of a sharp breakdown below that level looked limited at the time of writing. The same note also argued that much of the negative narrative had already been priced in, and that direction would depend heavily on upcoming results, with a reference to pending December-quarter numbers.

This matters because ITC’s recent price action has been tightly linked to policy risk around cigarette taxation, rather than any single quarterly print.

Q4 FY26 results: cautious-to-neutral broker stance

Brokerages largely maintained cautious to neutral views after ITC’s March 2026 quarter (Q4 FY26) results. One brokerage note highlighted that a “calibrated price hike” is expected to affect cigarette EBIT performance in the near term, while maintaining a Neutral rating with a sum-of-the-parts target price (TP) of ₹335, citing 20x FY28E EPS.

Axis Direct maintained a ‘Hold’ rating, stating that ITC weathered tax shocks with resilient FMCG growth. Nuvama Institutional Equities also maintained a ‘Hold’ and trimmed its target price to ₹350 from ₹365. Elara Capital reiterated an ‘Accumulate’ call with a target price of ₹335.

February 1 tax hike: the overhang that keeps returning

A central trigger mentioned repeatedly was the government’s sharp increase in cigarette taxation effective 1 February. The feed stated that GST on cigarettes increased from 28% to 40%, and a fresh excise duty was added on top of that. The excise duty was described as being charged per 1,000 sticks, ranging from roughly ₹2,000 to ₹8,500 depending on length and type.

Another segment summarised the impact as an effective 25% to 30% increase in cigarette costs. Broker commentary in the feed also linked this tax shock to concerns on volumes, margins, and near-term earnings visibility.

January sell-off and the 52-week low references

ITC’s stock performance around the tax announcement period was described as sharp. One update said the stock fell more than 20% in a month after the government announced a sharp increase in excise duty on cigarettes. Another reported ITC shares fell over 15% in four days after the new excise duty, and that the move erased about ₹82,000 crore in market capitalisation.

There were multiple references to lows and weak levels across different updates: ITC ending a session at ₹318, just above a 52-week low of ₹317.85; a separate mention of the stock falling to a 52-week low of ₹324.35 on the BSE; and another note saying it tumbled to a three-year low of ₹345.35 during a two-day rout.

What brokerages are saying: ratings and target resets

Broker notes in the feed show a wide spread of targets, and in several cases a reset lower after the tax hike.

• Morgan Stanley maintained an Equal Weight rating with a target price of ₹366, pointing to better-than-expected operating performance but no clear trigger for a rerating.
• Motilal Oswal reiterated a Neutral rating with a target price of ₹365, calling the quarter a “healthy performance but non-event after tax hike”.
• Nuvama was also cited in a separate downgrade note, cutting its target price to ₹415 from ₹534 and downgrading the stock to Hold from Buy, expecting a negative impact of excise duty hikes on sales and operational income.
• Nomura reportedly double-downgraded ITC to “reduce” from “buy” and cut its target to ₹340 from ₹540.
• JP Morgan was reported to have cut its target price to ₹375 from ₹475, citing expected pressure on volumes and stock multiples over the next 6-9 months.
• Emkay Global was cited as downgrading to Reduce from Add, with a target price of ₹350.

Key numbers at a glance

Market impact: policy risk versus operating resilience

Across the updates, the market’s concern is clear: cigarette taxation is dominating the investment narrative. Even where brokerages acknowledged better-than-expected or resilient operating performance, particularly in FMCG, the tax environment capped optimism and kept several houses on the sidelines.

The feed also reflected near-term caution from technical commentators, with references to bearish momentum and advice against aggressive positioning after the tax-led sell-off. At the same time, some notes pointed to valuation comfort and the stock trading at less than 20 times earnings, framing the current level as more reasonable than earlier peaks.

Analysis: why this matters for investors tracking ITC

For ITC, cigarettes remain the largest profit driver in most street models, which makes sudden tax changes unusually disruptive for earnings visibility. Several broker actions in the feed were not about execution lapses, but about changing assumptions on volumes, price hikes, and margins after the duty increase.

This is also why target prices vary meaningfully across brokerages and time windows in the feed. Some notes were written immediately after the tax shock and show large target cuts, while others reflect post-results recalibration and near-term EBIT pressure from price hikes.

Conclusion

ITC’s fall toward ₹300 on 22 May 2026 came amid a prolonged correction and broker commentary that remains cautious after Q4 FY26 results. With cigarette taxes raised from 1 February and additional per-1,000-stick excise duties introduced, policy risk continues to outweigh quarterly execution in shaping sentiment. The next meaningful market test, as highlighted in the commentary, is whether ITC holds key support levels and how upcoming quarterly results influence expectations around pricing and cigarette profitability.