ITC share price swings after Q4, key levels for 2026

Late-session Q4 update triggers sharp moves

ITC’s earnings update came towards the fag-end of the trading session, leading to quick and sharp gyrations in the FMCG major’s stock. On the NSE, ITC ended the session at ₹307.95, up 0.13%. The stock was seen around the ₹308 area during the session, reflecting how tight the trading range became after the announcement. With limited time left in the session, price discovery happened rapidly and resulted in volatile ticks. The move was modest on the close, but the intraday response highlighted how closely traders were positioned into results.

A longer downtrend narrative remains in focus

Beyond the day’s reaction, the stock has been described as being in a downtrend for about three years. The month also saw a majority of losing sessions, with fresh concerns linked to excise duty hikes on cigarettes. In one of the referenced sessions, ITC traded on a flat note near ₹318.70. Separate reporting noted the stock trading near its 52-week low of ₹318 reached on January 27, 2026.

Excise duty changes on cigarettes: what the policy says

A key overhang for ITC in recent trading periods has been taxation on cigarettes and other tobacco products. Parliament in December approved the Central Excise (Amendment) Bill, 2025, which replaces a temporary levy on cigarettes and tobacco products. As per the referenced order, excise duty would be imposed on cigarettes in addition to a 40% GST. The finance ministry notified an excise duty of ₹2,050–8,500 per 1,000 sticks depending on cigarette length, scheduled to take effect from February 1. These changes were linked to heavy selling pressure in the stock across specific windows.

A steep four-session fall highlighted investor sensitivity

In a sharp move, ITC shares were reported to have fallen more than 2% on January 6, extending losses to 15% over four sessions after the government imposed new excise duty on cigarettes. Another data point highlighted a fresh 52-week low of ₹337.75 per share. The article set also referenced a separate adjusted 52-week low of ₹377.74 (adjusted to the demerger of the hotel business), per BSE data, underlining that “lows” may differ depending on adjustment methodology. In another instance, the stock hit an eight-month low and slipped below ₹400 to ₹396.30, down 2.5% intraday on the BSE, amid reports that the government was looking to hike GST on cigarettes.

Key technical levels traders are watching

Technical analysts quoted in the article set pointed to defined support and resistance bands rather than open-ended targets. One view flagged ₹350 as the first resistance, with a major supply zone around ₹365–₹373, and noted that staying below these levels keeps the bearish structure intact with scope for consolidation or a move toward the ₹300 support zone. Another view said the stock was hovering near ₹320–₹325, a zone that historically has seen stabilization attempts, with selling intensity easing compared to the breakdown week. Resistance zones mentioned for pullbacks included ₹345–₹350.

Sub-₹400 and the 100-DMA: another technical snapshot

In a separate episode, ITC fell below ₹400 for the first time in five months and closed at ₹398.30, down 1.84% versus the previous close of ₹405.75. One technical view noted the stock trading below its 100-day moving average and moving in a falling channel pattern. The daily RSI was cited around 38, below the neutral 50 mark, indicating weak momentum. Levels such as ₹390–₹375 were cited as potential downside zones with a stop loss at ₹420 in that framework, while another view flagged that a sustained breakdown below ₹405 could pull the stock toward ₹398–₹395.

Results and operating performance: Q1 FY26 and Q4 FY25 details

ITC’s reported numbers in the provided text included both operating quarters and an exceptional one-time gain quarter. For the June 2025 quarter, ITC reported net profit growth and a strong rise in revenue, while margins were lower year-on-year. Separately, Q4 FY25 standalone net profit surged due to a one-time gain linked to the hotels business demerger.

Brokerage and analyst calls: targets and ranges cited

Multiple brokerages and analysts remained constructive in their long-term stance, while acknowledging near-term technical weakness and demand concerns. Antique Broking maintained a BUY rating with a revised target price of ₹497 (earlier ₹543), and cut FY26E and FY27E EBITDA estimates by 9% and 8% respectively. Motilal Oswal Research reiterated a BUY call with a target price of ₹525, linking potential re-rating to sustained mid-single-digit volume growth in cigarettes and a recovery in FMCG in FY26. ICICI Securities also recommended a Buy with an SOTP price target of ₹525 and expected decent volume growth momentum of 4-5% in the coming quarters if tax rates remain stable. Another reference said analysts’ views on ITC’s future price ranged from a minimum estimate of ₹450 to a maximum estimate of ₹567, and elsewhere the stock was described as being in the ₹475–₹571 range.

Market impact: policy risk meets technical levels

The episodes captured in the text show how quickly cigarette taxation headlines can influence ITC’s stock price, particularly around key round numbers like ₹400 and widely tracked levels like ₹405. Moves below ₹400 were associated with heightened concern around GST or excise changes, while late-session earnings announcements produced sharp but short-lived volatility. At the same time, quarterly numbers show that revenue growth was strong in the June 2025 quarter, even as EBITDA margin declined year-on-year. This mix has left the stock trading as a blend of policy-risk sensitivity and technical-level-driven behaviour.

Conclusion

ITC’s recent trading action combined late-session earnings volatility with recurring policy signals on cigarette taxation and a market that is reacting sharply around well-defined support and resistance zones. Investors are also weighing quarterly performance metrics including revenue, margins, and one-off items such as the hotels demerger gain. Going forward, attention is likely to remain on official tax notifications and how the stock behaves around the repeatedly cited supports near ₹405 and the broader downside zones highlighted by technical analysts.