Jefferies hikes Adani Energy target to ₹1,665 (42%)

What changed in Jefferies’ latest view

Jefferies has reiterated its ‘Buy’ rating on three Adani group stocks: Adani Power Ltd (APL), Adani Green Energy Ltd (AGEL) and Adani Energy Solutions Ltd (AESL). The brokerage also highlighted potential upside from its target prices, with Adani Power showing the largest implied upside among the three in the note.

AESL shares drew particular attention after Jefferies sharply raised its target price to ₹1,665 from ₹1,170, a 42% increase. The firm linked the upgrade to long-term earnings visibility and improving execution, supported by a stronger pipeline in transmission and smart metering.

Jefferies’ headline targets and implied upsides

Jefferies’ target price on Adani Power was set at ₹255, implying 11% potential upside, according to the note. For the other two names, the brokerage indicated 1% upside for Adani Green and 10% upside for Adani Energy Solutions.

Alongside the three operating companies, Jefferies also increased its target price on Adani Enterprises to ₹2,800 from ₹2,600, using a sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) approach.

Adani Power: EBITDA growth expectations and FCF inflection

On Adani Power, Jefferies said it expects the company to deliver a 23% EBITDA CAGR over FY26-30E. The brokerage also expects Adani Power to turn free cash flow (FCF) positive by FY30E, from negative levels currently.

The ₹255 target price and ‘Buy’ rating were presented in the context of this expected multi-year operating improvement. The note did not provide additional near-term catalysts beyond the EBITDA CAGR and the FCF trajectory.

Adani Green: valuation discount highlighted

For Adani Green Energy, Jefferies pointed to valuation headroom versus past levels. It said valuations are at a 56% discount to the January 2023 peak 1-year forward EV/EBITDA, which, in its view, creates room for upside on execution.

Jefferies maintained its ‘Buy’ stance and set a target of ₹1,435 on AGEL. The brokerage’s indicated upside for the stock was 1%.

Adani Energy Solutions: why Jefferies raised the target

AESL was the most material change in the set of updates, with Jefferies lifting the target price to ₹1,665 from ₹1,170. The brokerage said its view is supported by long-term earnings visibility and improving execution, and it maintained its ‘Buy’ rating.

Jefferies also stated that the company continues to see a visible EBITDA CAGR of over 20%. It added that downside risks appear manageable, while long-term growth drivers such as expanding transmission capacity, smart metering rollout and regulated returns support its revised target price.

Pipeline, execution and capex cues cited for AESL

Jefferies flagged a near-term bid pipeline of ₹150,000 crore against ₹54,000 crore at end-FY25. It also said the company is executing ₹71,800 crore worth of transmission projects, up 20% year-on-year.

Smart meters were described as ramping up well and a key growth driver going forward. Jefferies also said the company is “locked-in” for double-digit medium-term growth, as per the note.

In another set of details attributed to Jefferies’ commentary, the management was described as being confident of achieving around ₹15,300 crore of capitalisation in FY26, rising to a ₹20,000-22,000 crore run-rate by FY27. This was linked to a robust pipeline of transmission and smart metering projects.

Valuation framework used for AESL target

Jefferies said its AESL target is based on 20 times estimated FY28 EV/EBITDA. It also noted that this multiple is a 14% discount to AESL’s 10-year average.

Separately, a feed of broker notes included prior Jefferies target revisions for AESL, including a move to ₹1,665 from ₹1,170 dated 28/04, and an older update showing a revision to ₹1,300 from ₹1,365. Another broker initiation cited in the same feed showed JM Financial starting coverage with a ‘Buy’ and a target price of ₹1,199.

Stock price action and how targets compare

Market data in the provided text showed AESL’s last close at ₹1,540.10, and noted the price was 0.78% away from its 52-week high. It also referenced AESL and AGEL hitting 52-week highs, with AESL up 2% at ₹1,443.75 and AGEL up 2% at ₹1,257.30 at that time.

A separate target-price snapshot in the text showed an average target price of ₹1,417.88 for AESL, with a high target of ₹1,665 and a low target of ₹1,133.

Sector backdrop mentioned: power transmission investment cycle

The text also pointed to a broader recovery cycle in India’s power transmission sector. An investment range of ₹760,000 crore to ₹900,000 crore over the next six years was cited, driven by rising power demand, the need to connect renewables to the grid, and policy initiatives such as asset monetisation and InvITs.

This context is relevant for AESL because Jefferies linked its thesis to transmission execution, bid pipeline visibility and regulated-return characteristics.

Why this matters for investors watching Adani group stocks

Taken together, the Jefferies note placed the spotlight on execution and multi-year visibility across the three covered Adani names. For Adani Power, the focus was on EBITDA compounding and an eventual shift to positive free cash flow by FY30E. For Adani Green, the argument leaned on the gap between current valuation multiples and the January 2023 peak forward EV/EBITDA.

For AESL, the target hike reflects how broker models can re-rate quickly when project pipelines, capitalisation guidance and execution momentum are presented as strengthening. At the same time, the target comparison data in the text shows a wide range of expectations, from ₹1,133 on the low end to ₹1,665 on the high end.

Conclusion

Jefferies retained ‘Buy’ calls on Adani Power, Adani Green and Adani Energy Solutions, while raising AESL’s target sharply to ₹1,665 and highlighting a large pipeline and improving execution. The next datapoints investors are likely to track, based on the note, are AESL’s transmission project delivery and smart metering ramp-up, alongside progress toward the capitalisation levels indicated for FY26 and FY27.