Jefferies backs Adani trio: FY30-32 targets, upside

What Jefferies said on the three Adani stocks

Jefferies has retained its ‘Buy’ rating on three Adani group stocks: Adani Power Ltd, Adani Green Energy Ltd and Adani Energy Solutions Ltd. In its note, the brokerage assigned target prices of Rs 255 for Adani Power, Rs 1,435 for Adani Green, and Rs 1,665 for Adani Energy Solutions.

Based on those targets, Jefferies indicated an 11% potential upside for Adani Power. It also pointed to potential upside of 1% for Adani Green and 10% for Adani Energy Solutions. The brokerage’s overall stance rests on management-led visibility on capacity additions, better contracting under long-term power purchase agreements (PPAs), and execution progress in transmission projects and smart metering.

Quick snapshot: ratings, targets and key triggers

Adani Power: expansion to 42 GW and higher PPA coverage

For Adani Power, Jefferies said management reiterated a capacity expansion target of 2.3 times to 42 GW by FY32. The brokerage also flagged the company’s view that thermal power remains critical to meet India’s baseload electricity demand.

A key risk reducer, in Jefferies’ view, is contracting visibility. It noted that 56% of the upcoming 23.7 GW capacity is already locked in under long-term PPAs, and the company’s stated aim is to tie up 100% under long-term PPAs. Jefferies added that this approach lowers the risk profile further by reducing merchant exposure.

On financial trajectory, the brokerage said it expects Adani Power to deliver a 23% EBITDA CAGR over FY26-30E. It also said the company should turn free cash flow (FCF) positive by FY30E, from negative levels currently.

Adani Green: 50 GW by 2030 and storage as a focus area

For Adani Green Energy, Jefferies said management reinforced confidence in its journey to scale capacity 2.6 times from 19.3 GW in FY26 to 50 GW by 2030. This roadmap includes a 5 GW pumped storage project (PSP).

The brokerage highlighted battery storage as “top of mind”, pointing to plans to ramp Battery Energy Storage System (BESS) capacity to over 10 GWh in FY27E from 3 GWh. Jefferies linked this to the ability to sell power at peak rates at night.

Jefferies also flagged valuation context. It said Adani Green’s valuations are at a 56% discount to their January 2023 peak one-year forward EV/EBITDA, which it said creates room for upside if execution remains on track.

Khavda build-out and renewable scale-up

In a separate portion of the broader market commentary included with the note, Jefferies referenced large-scale development at Khavda in Gujarat, where 30 GW of renewable capacity is being built. The scale at Khavda is positioned as a key growth driver in the renewable portfolio.

The article text also includes other market reports around Adani Green in which Jefferies’ target price was cited at Rs 1,300 and valuation discounts were described at 63% to the January 2023 peak on a forward EV/EBITDA basis. Those references sit alongside price-action commentary such as Adani Green trading at Rs 1,115 and being down from a 52-week high of Rs 2,091.85.

Adani Energy Solutions: transmission execution and smart meters

Jefferies’ thesis on Adani Energy Solutions leans on visibility in transmission and smart metering. The brokerage said the near-term bid pipeline is Rs 1.5 lakh crore versus Rs 54,000 crore at end-FY25.

It also said the company is executing Rs 71,800 crore worth of transmission projects, up 20% year-on-year. Jefferies described smart meters as ramping up well and called it a key growth driver going forward. Based on these factors, it said the company is “locked-in for double-digit medium-term growth.”

On valuation, Jefferies said its target on Adani Energy is based on 20 times estimated FY28 EV/EBITDA, which is a 14% discount to AESL’s 10-year average.

Regulatory overhangs and risks flagged

Jefferies said the Competition Commission of India (CCI) has dismissed a case against the group in India, and it believes this offers some group re-rating potential.

It also outlined downside risks for Adani Energy Solutions as: (1) inability to maintain interest rate; and (2) market share loss. The note did not provide additional quantification in the provided text, but the risk list signals what Jefferies is watching as projects scale.

Market impact: what the note means for investors

The immediate market takeaway from Jefferies’ targets is that the brokerage sees uneven near-term upside across the three names, with Adani Power showing the highest implied upside (11%) in the note’s summary. For Adani Green, Jefferies’ cited upside of 1% implies the stock may be closer to its near-term fair value based on the brokerage’s assumptions, even as it highlights longer-run execution levers such as storage and large project build-outs.

For Adani Energy Solutions, Jefferies’ 10% upside call is tied to the size of the bid pipeline, the pace of ongoing transmission execution, and the smart metering ramp-up described as a forward growth driver. The use of a discount to the company’s 10-year average multiple suggests Jefferies is factoring in a margin of safety in its valuation approach.

Analysis: why the capacity and contracting details matter

Across Adani Power and Adani Green, the common thread is the emphasis on scale-up with demand visibility and contracting. In Adani Power’s case, Jefferies explicitly pointed to long-term PPAs covering 56% of upcoming capacity and an ambition to reach 100%, which reduces sensitivity to short-term merchant price swings.

In Adani Green’s case, the focus is not only nameplate capacity but also the ability to shape supply into higher-value hours using BESS and PSP. Jefferies’ valuation comments, including the stated discount to January 2023 peak multiples, are framed as creating room for upside if execution continues.

For Adani Energy Solutions, the transmission execution figure (Rs 71,800 crore, up 20% YoY) and the stated bid pipeline (Rs 1.5 lakh crore) give investors concrete markers to track delivery, particularly as the note links smart metering to incremental growth.

Conclusion

Jefferies’ retained ‘Buy’ calls on Adani Power, Adani Green and Adani Energy Solutions are anchored in management-guided capacity expansion, higher PPA coverage, storage scale-up and a large transmission and smart-metering opportunity set. The brokerage’s targets of Rs 255, Rs 1,435 and Rs 1,665 place the highest stated near-term upside on Adani Power, while framing Adani Green’s upside as more execution-driven over time. Going forward, investors are likely to track the pace of commissioning, PPA tie-ups, storage rollouts and transmission project milestones referenced in the note.