Jio ARPU forecast: ₹326.4 by FY31, IPO DRHP details

What Jio disclosed in its IPO filing

Reliance Jio Platforms has projected a steady rise in average revenue per user (ARPU) over the rest of the decade, pointing to what it calls “significant headroom” for growth. In its draft red herring prospectus (DRHP), the company said India’s mobile broadband ARPU has not increased in line with global benchmarks. The filing estimates India’s mobile broadband ARPU could reach ₹326.4 per month by FY31. Jio Platforms’ ARPU stood at ₹214 per month in FY26, as per the same document. The company links its ARPU thesis to higher data usage, improving product offerings, and rising disposable incomes.

The ARPU target and the implied growth rate

The DRHP frames the FY31 ARPU estimate as a meaningful jump from current levels. From ₹214 in FY26 to ₹326.4 by FY31, the increase is a little over 50% across the period referenced in the filing. Jio also notes that even with this uplift, its “current ARPU forecast remains below the level implied” by a global relationship between ARPU and income. The company says the ARPU estimate has been calculated using global market benchmarks and analysis of how ARPU typically varies with GDP per capita. It also argues there is room for tariff improvement even after recent price actions.

Why India’s ARPU is still below global benchmarks

Jio’s DRHP states that India’s ARPU has not grown in line with global market benchmarks. The company attributes the gap to India’s price-sensitive telecom market and the long period where data-driven growth did not fully translate into sustained monetisation. The filing says India’s mobile broadband ARPU has shown a consistent increase in recent years, suggesting an industry shift toward monetisation and sustainable pricing. It also points to inflation-adjusted trends over the past decade to argue that tariff structures can still improve. The broader message is that India’s consumption of digital services is rising faster than revenue realisation per user.

Drivers Jio highlights: data usage, income, and plan mix

Jio expects ARPU expansion to be supported by increasing data usage and higher median disposable income per capita. The filing also lists periodic tariff rationalisation as a key lever, aligned with improving service quality and perceived value. Another driver is a shift toward higher-value bundled plans that combine connectivity with digital services. Examples cited include OTT entertainment, cloud storage, cloud computing, and AI-based products. Jio positions these bundles as a way to increase spend per customer without relying only on base tariff hikes.

What changed recently: tariff hikes and “5G premiumisation”

The DRHP says India’s ARPU increase reflects multiple industry-wide factors rather than a single driver. It highlights tariff hikes, including those in the second quarter of FY2025. It also flags the “5G premiumisation effect,” improving customer mix, and improved product propositions. The company claims end users are responding positively to the enhanced value proposition, showing willingness to pay for reliable connectivity, faster speeds, and integrated services. The filing presents this as a structural shift in how consumers value mobile broadband.

IPO context: fundraising size and use of proceeds

Jio Platforms has filed draft papers for an IPO that could raise around ₹37,700 crore, according to reports cited alongside the DRHP discussion. Separately, the coverage states Jio plans to use ₹27,500 crore of IPO proceeds to repay debt. The offering is framed as Reliance Group’s first public offering in nearly 20 years. The IPO narrative in the filing and related reports ties Jio’s monetisation journey to its scale, network investments, and digital services strategy.

Operating metrics in the DRHP: subscribers and profitability

The DRHP points to improving operating metrics in FY26. Jio’s customer base expanded to 524.4 million in FY26 from 488.2 million a year earlier, adding 36.2 million net subscribers during the year. Over the same period, ARPU improved to ₹214. Financially, Jio Platforms’ revenue from operations rose to ₹146,885 crore in FY26 from ₹109,558 crore in FY24, and EBITDA increased to ₹76,255 crore from ₹54,959 crore. EBITDA margin improved to 51.91% in FY26 from 50.16% in FY24, supported by scale benefits, proprietary technology, automation, and network operating leverage.

India digital economy and the 2G-to-4G/5G migration angle

The DRHP cites an industry report projecting India’s digital economy could grow from about ₹4,960,000 crore to ₹12,580,000 crore by FY31, contributing around 22% of the country’s GVA. Jio positions itself as foundational infrastructure for this shift. It also highlights the migration opportunity from legacy networks, stating more than 263.5 million Indians are still using 2G networks. The company expects this transition to support subscriber growth and higher data consumption. It also cites rising incomes, cross-selling across its customer base, household broadband penetration, and enterprise digitisation as additional long-term supports.

Key risk flagged: ARPU growth is not guaranteed

Jio acknowledges in the filing that future tariff hikes may not be easy. The company says ARPU has benefited from tariff hikes, customer upgrades, and higher data consumption, but future price increases could face consumer resistance, competitive undercutting, or regulatory intervention. In other coverage referenced with the filing, Jio’s ARPU of ₹214 is compared with Airtel’s ₹257–₹259, underlining monetisation differences in the market. The DRHP’s framing suggests Jio is aiming to narrow the gap through plan mix, premium services, and continued network-led differentiation.

Key numbers at a glance

Why the ARPU discussion matters for investors

For a telecom and digital services business, ARPU is a core indicator of monetisation, especially once subscriber growth slows. Jio’s DRHP links its ARPU trajectory to structural factors such as higher incomes, plan upgrades, and bundled digital services, rather than relying solely on one-off tariff hikes. The filing also connects ARPU improvement to broader digital economy growth and migration from 2G to 4G/5G, both of which could raise data usage intensity. At the same time, the DRHP explicitly flags the difficulty of sustaining price increases in a competitive and regulated market. Investors are likely to track how much of the FY31 ARPU ambition is delivered through mix and service bundling versus periodic tariff actions.

Conclusion

Jio Platforms’ DRHP lays out a clear ARPU growth thesis, projecting mobile broadband ARPU could reach ₹326.4 per month by FY31 from ₹214 in FY26, while arguing India still trails global benchmarks. The filing also sets the backdrop for a large IPO, with reported fundraising of ₹37,700 crore and a stated intent to use ₹27,500 crore to repay debt. The next set of details will depend on the final offer structure and regulatory review as the draft papers move through the IPO process.