Jio Financial Services: A Christmas Pick with a Target of ₹350

Introduction to the Christmas Stock Pick

As investors look for opportunities during the festive season, Sumeet Bagadia, Executive Director at Choice Broking, has identified Jio Financial Services (JIOFIN) as a compelling 'Christmas Pick' for 2025. The recommendation comes as the stock shows signs of steady accumulation and strengthening demand at lower price levels after a period of robust consolidation. This suggests growing investor confidence and sets the stage for a potential upward move.

Technical Outlook: A Breakout on the Horizon

According to Bagadia's analysis, JIOFIN has demonstrated notable strength after consolidating within a well-defined range, forming a solid base. This pattern indicates consistent accumulation by investors. Currently trading around ₹300.5, the stock is forming a 'Flag and Pole' pattern on its weekly chart. This technical formation is typically a signal of trend continuation, suggesting that an upside breakout could follow the end of the current consolidation phase. The stock is trading near its immediate previous swing high on the daily chart, and a decisive move above this level could trigger fresh upward momentum.

Key Price Levels and Indicators

The brokerage has set a medium-to-long-term target range of ₹335 to ₹350 for JIOFIN. The recommended strategy for investors is to consider buying at the current market price of ₹300.5 and to add more on any dips towards the ₹285 level. This level is identified as a strong support zone where consistent accumulation has been observed. Further reinforcing the positive outlook, the stock is taking strong support near its 100-week Exponential Moving Average (EMA). A recent crossover, where the 50-week EMA moved above its longer-term counterpart, adds to the evidence of the trend's strength and stability. However, a breach below ₹275 would serve as a key warning, potentially challenging the positive setup.

Momentum and Strength Analysis

Momentum indicators also support this constructive view. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently positioned around 46, which is a neutral level. This indicates that the stock is not overbought and has ample room for further upside movement once the breakout occurs. The combination of price action, chart patterns, and momentum indicators provides a comprehensive technical argument for the potential rally in Jio Financial Services' stock price.

Financial Performance Overview

The consolidated financial performance of Jio Financial Services shows a picture of rapid growth alongside increasing operational demands. On a quarterly basis, the company's sales surged from ₹414 crore in June 2023 to ₹981 crore in September 2025. During the same period, net profit increased from ₹332 crore to ₹695 crore. The earnings per share (EPS) for the September 2025 quarter stood at ₹1.09.

Annual Financial Growth

Looking at the full fiscal year, the growth is even more pronounced. Consolidated sales grew from just ₹45 crore in March 2023 to ₹2,043 crore by March 2025. For the fiscal year 2025, the company reported an operating profit of approximately ₹1,549 crore and a net profit of ₹1,613 crore. This resulted in an annual EPS of ₹2.56 and a dividend distribution of 20%.

Balance Sheet and Capital Deployment

The company's balance sheet has expanded significantly. As of March 2025, equity capital was ₹6,353 crore with reserves of ₹117,143 crore. By September 2025, total assets had grown to ₹152,452 crore. A notable development is the increase in borrowings, which went from zero in March 2024 to ₹10,506 crore by September 2025. This indicates that the company is deploying capital for growth initiatives, even as investments remained high at ₹135,984 crore.

Cash Flow and Efficiency Ratios

An analysis of cash flows reveals a strategic shift. While the company had a positive operating cash flow in FY 2023, it recorded a substantial outflow of ₹10,083 crore in FY 2025, likely tied to its expansion and investment activities. Performance ratios such as Return on Equity (ROE) at 1.23% and Return on Capital Employed (ROCE) at 1.47% currently suggest modest capital efficiency, which is common for a company in a high-growth phase.

Market Context and Stock Performance

Despite the strong underlying fundamentals and positive technical signals, JIOFIN's stock has been relatively subdued for most of the year, trading in a range-bound manner. It closed marginally higher at ₹298.85 on December 24, 2025, and is down nearly 2% for the year so far. The analysis from Choice Broking suggests that this period of consolidation may be setting the stage for a renewed upward trend, offering a potential entry point for investors.

Conclusion

Jio Financial Services presents a compelling case based on both technical and fundamental factors. The 'Flag and Pole' pattern, supported by key moving averages and momentum indicators, points towards a potential breakout with a target of ₹335-₹350. This is backed by impressive top-line and bottom-line growth, although investors should also note the increased borrowings and current capital efficiency metrics. The recommendation from Choice Broking positions JIOFIN as a stock to watch, with the potential for significant returns in the medium to long term if the technical breakout materializes as anticipated.