Lenskart Solutions valuation: bull, base, bear targets 2026

Where the stock is trading now

Lenskart Solutions was cited at a market price of Rs 463.50 in an analyst review that also noted a trailing P/E of NAx. Another data point in the same set of notes put CMP at INR474. The valuation debate has intensified after the company’s IPO and early trading, with different brokerages and commentators arriving at sharply different conclusions on risk-reward.

Three scenario targets highlighted by analysts

One analyst review laid out three explicit scenarios: a bull case of Rs 720 on strong earnings delivery and sector tailwinds, a base case of Rs 570 aligned with analyst consensus, and a bear case of Rs 380 if macro headwinds persist. The same review framed the setup as “defined risk-reward” around Rs 463.50, with the consensus target at Rs 570. Separately, Motilal Oswal Financial Services (MOFSL) discussed a bull case of Rs 735 and a bear case of Rs 395, tying upside and downside to revenue growth and margin expansion relative to expectations.

MOFSL initiates coverage with a Buy and Rs 600 TP

Lenskart shares rose 3% in Friday’s trade after MOFSL initiated coverage with a ‘Buy’ rating and a target price of Rs 600. MOFSL said the TP implied about 27% potential upside over Thursday’s closing price. The brokerage anchored its target to a DCF framework, citing an implied 55 times FY28E pre-Ind AS EBITDA. MOFSL also argued its valuations were at a premium to other leading retailers but justified by Lenskart’s superior growth profile, limited organized competition, and long growth runway.

What growth and margins the market is pricing in

MOFSL said the current market price was pricing in about a 23% India revenue CAGR, versus its base-case estimate of about 27%. It also said the stock was pricing in a 15.8% India pre-Ind AS EBITDA margin, around 100 basis points lower than its base-case estimate. MOFSL added that stronger-than-expected revenue growth and or sharper margin expansion could create upside risk to its target price, while lower growth and or weaker-than-expected margin expansion could drive downside.

Operating footprint and the demand runway

The company is described as India’s leading omnichannel eyewear platform addressing an underpenetrated market. In the bull-case description, Lenskart was said to run more than 2,500 stores across 175+ cities in India. Another note referred to a 2700+ retail network. The same bull-case summary cited an India eyewear market expected to grow at a 9% to 10% CAGR till 2030, positioning Lenskart to benefit if it sustains execution.

Financial and operating metrics cited in the notes

One bull-case set of data points said revenue grew from INR 3,788 crore in FY23 to INR 5,427 crore in FY24, a 43.3% rise. It also said the company made a net profit of INR 297 crore in FY25, compared with a loss of INR 64 crore in FY24, indicating a swing to profitability. MOFSL separately expected a CAGR of 25% in pro forma consolidated revenue and 53% in pre-Ind AS EBITDA over FY25-28, driven by volume growth, product margin improvement, and about 625 basis points of operating leverage-driven margin expansion. Another line in the material stated an expectation that Lenskart’s India segment would deliver ~27% pro forma revenue CAGR over FY25-28E, led primarily by volume growth of about 24% CAGR.

IPO pricing, sentiment signals, and split broker views

Despite strong investor interest during the IPO, the stock was said to have opened lower. The grey market premium reportedly dropped to zero from a peak of Rs 108 per share. Ambit Capital assigned a ‘sell’ rating, citing current valuations and flagging a 16% downside potential from the IPO price. Lenskart targeted a valuation of INR 70,000 crore with its INR 7,278 crore IPO, and the IPO price band reference included INR 402 per share at the upper end.

Valuation concerns: peers, multiples, and profit assumptions

A separate valuation critique said the IPO looked stretched at around 227x FY25 earnings, while another bear-case framing cited a “sky-high 235 P/E valuation.” Bloomberg-style commentary in the supplied text said that at the top of its price band Lenskart was valued at about $1.0 billion, or roughly 10 times last year’s enterprise value to sales, and at a premium to global peers such as EssilorLuxottica SA. Another market observer, Kant, argued the valuation left little room for upside and issued an “Avoid” rating, adding that even with 20% revenue growth and 15% margins, FY30 PAT could be around INR 1,000 crore, implying a forward P/E of nearly 70x.

Key risks flagged in the bear case

The bear-case summary pointed to a net profit margin of around 5.4%, described as low relative to earnings scale. It also stated the company spends about INR 900 crore each year on marketing and expansion, which can pressure near-term profitability. Another risk highlighted was import dependence, with nearly 60% of raw materials imported, raising sensitivity to rupee depreciation or higher import prices. The bear-case framing concluded that while the future opportunity is meaningful, cost control and lower dependence on imported inputs remain important.

Snapshot table: prices, targets, and disclosed metrics

What to watch next

The combined set of notes shows a market split between growth-led “Buy” calls and valuation-led “Sell” or “Avoid” views. On the positive side, broker assumptions focus on high growth, operating leverage, and margin improvement. On the cautious side, the discussion keeps returning to rich valuation multiples, import-linked cost risk, and whether reported profitability scales without heavy marketing and expansion spending. Several observers also framed FY26 as pivotal for establishing sustainable earnings and validating the assumptions embedded in the valuation.