Maruti Suzuki: Motilal Oswal sees 29% upside in 2026

Motilal Oswal keeps a bullish view

Motilal Oswal Financial Services (MOFSL) has reiterated a ‘Buy’ rating on Maruti Suzuki India Ltd (MSIL), pointing to strong retail demand and an expanding product and capacity roadmap. The brokerage argued that the recent phase of stock underperformance is largely linked to near-term wholesale weakness and a softer quarterly performance, rather than a deterioration in underlying demand. MOFSL also expects capacity constraints to ease with new capacity coming from April 2026, which it sees as important for dispatches and market share.

Target price and upside: what the reports say

Across the research excerpts cited, MOFSL’s stated targets for Maruti Suzuki vary by note and valuation frame. One set of figures reiterates a target price of ₹17,406, while another excerpt references a higher target of ₹18,712. Separately, another mention links a ‘Buy’ call to a ₹15,529 target price and describes it as implying about 20% upside.

The ₹17,406 target is described as valuing the stock at 26 times December 2027 estimated earnings per share (EPS). The ₹18,712 target is described as valuing the stock at 28 times September 2027 estimated EPS. In another valuation reference, the target price is linked to 25 times projected FY28 EPS, which is described as close to the auto industry’s average P/E of about 25.24.

Why MOFSL expects growth to improve

MOFSL factors in a 16% earnings CAGR for MSIL over FY25 to FY28E. It also projects a 10% volume CAGR over FY25 to FY28 in one of the cited excerpts. The brokerage expects EBITDA margins to improve gradually as input costs stabilise, and it links volume growth to SUVs, EVs and exports.

A separate catalyst highlighted is the possibility of a market share revival supporting a re-rating, especially if wholesale volumes normalise after capacity additions. The brokerage’s constructive stance is also built on what it describes as healthy underlying retail demand for cars and utility vehicles.

Capacity constraints and April 2026 expansion timeline

A key operational point in the brokerage’s thesis is that near-term wholesale weakness is being driven mainly by capacity constraints. MOFSL expects these constraints to ease with incremental capacity from April 2026. The implication is that dispatch trends may look softer than end-demand in the near term, and that the wholesale-retail gap could narrow once capacity improves.

Product pipeline: SUVs and EVs in focus

MOFSL expects Maruti Suzuki to outperform industry growth in FY27, supported by a launch pipeline. The cited pipeline includes a new Brezza variant, the recently launched Victoris and e-Vitara, and at least one more new launch in FY27E. The brokerage also points to exports as a support factor alongside domestic demand.

Stock performance: underperformance remains the near-term overhang

The excerpts cite multiple snapshots of Maruti Suzuki’s recent price performance. The stock is said to have declined 11.04% in the three months before April 2026, though it returned 11.68% over the past year. Another excerpt says that over the last six months the stock declined 12% and underperformed the Auto index by almost 9%.

A separate Hindi-language excerpt notes that the stock was trading around ₹13,221 on March 12 (down 2.08% at that time) and that in 2026 the stock price was down about 21%. In another MOFSL summary dated March 13, 2026, the target price of ₹17,406 is presented as implying about 29% upside from a referenced current market price of ₹13,497.

Valuation: optimism visible, but sensitivity is highlighted

The cited material flags valuation as both a signal of optimism and a potential risk. It notes a trailing twelve months (TTM) P/E range of 27.83 to 28.91 for the stock. This is presented as reflecting investor optimism, but it “could become a risk if growth doesn’t continue.” In a separate mention, the auto industry benchmark P/E is described as 21.6x to 26.8x, while another line cites the auto industry’s average P/E at about 25.24.

How other brokerages are positioned

The excerpts say other analysts have set higher average price targets, reaching up to ₹17,255, implying upside closer to 30% in that reference. Another excerpt says brokerages such as Nuvama and HDFC Securities have maintained ‘Buy’ ratings with target prices in the ₹18,600 to ₹18,700 range.

Separately, the material includes a line on HDFC Securities maintaining ‘Buy’ ratings on three stocks with target prices of ₹1,033 for Ather Energy, ₹18,168 for Maruti Suzuki, and ₹2,588 for Sansera Engineering.

Key numbers at a glance

Market impact: what investors are likely tracking

For investors, the near-term debate in the excerpts centres on whether wholesale softness is transitory and linked to capacity, or indicative of weaker demand. MOFSL’s stance is that retail demand remains healthy and that new capacity from April 2026 should help.

The valuation discussion is also central. With the stock trading at a high-20s TTM P/E in the cited range, the market is already pricing in a degree of growth continuity. That makes execution on launches, volumes, and margin stability more important to sustain sentiment, as flagged in the excerpts.

Conclusion

Motilal Oswal’s reiterated ‘Buy’ view on Maruti Suzuki rests on strong retail demand, a planned easing of capacity constraints from April 2026, and an expectation of 16% earnings CAGR through FY28E. The next major checkpoints, based on the cited thesis, are the pace of wholesale recovery as capacity improves and how the launch pipeline plays out through FY27.